Shulou(Shulou.com)06/03 Report--

Recently, watching international news gives me a headache, because most of the hot topics are related to Trump. Every time you open the website, Trump's name dominates most of the screen.

But over the past week, American politics has suddenly become interesting because there is a new face in the American political news: Yang Anze, a Chinese entrepreneur. This man, as you may also be concerned, is the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election.

Yang Anze stood out in the national debate on the party's primary last Wednesday, becoming the second most favored candidate after Biden.

One of the important reasons why Yang Anze has become a dark horse is that he has adopted a very distinct and somewhat different policy proposition. He believes that the biggest challenge facing the United States now comes neither from external competition nor from internal contradictions in the United States, but from technology.

Artificial intelligence and automation will cause a serious wave of unemployment, which is the biggest challenge. How serious is it? He predicts that over the next 12 years, one in three Americans will be at risk of losing their jobs. Therefore, he advocated that every person over the age of 18 should be paid US $1000 a month to ensure a basic living.

This policy idea is very clever, because it is equivalent to creating a common enemy, artificial intelligence, for people of all parties. This is also reflected in his campaign slogan: "not to the left, not to the right, but forward!"

In fact, there has been a lot of discussion in the market about how artificial intelligence will develop and how it will affect each of us. Yuval Herari's A brief History of the Future, for example, outlines what it will look like in a world dominated by algorithms and artificial intelligence.

All these discussions are, of course, very valuable. However, there is a premise, but few people ask, that is: is artificial intelligence really the definite direction of technological development?

There is a great god who doesn't think so. In his view, artificial intelligence is at best a possible path of technological development, not an inevitable path.

I'd like to share his views with you.

First of all, let me introduce you to this great god. His name is George Gilder. Gilder is a very famous American economist. In the 1980s, he was one of the representatives of the supply school. At that time, American President Ronald Reagan was deeply influenced by Gilder's views. Now Gilder is one of the evangelists of the digital economy. He invests in technology companies himself and publishes articles in technology magazines. Some people call him one of the three great thinkers in the digital age.

What does Gilder think of the trend of technological development?

First of all, let's take a look at the current technology development trend that we all default to, and how he thinks it came from.

Today, the three most promising technologies in the world, some people summarize them as ABC,A refers to AI, artificial intelligence, B refers to Big Data, that is, big data, C refers to Cloud, that is, cloud computing. These three technologies have become the consensus of big technology companies, and they are also the places they must compete for. Whether it is Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Facebook or China's Ali, Tencent, Baidu, have invested a lot of resources in these three technologies.

With the development of these three technologies, what will be the result? Many people predict that human beings will eventually learn to listen to the arrangement of the algorithm, and many professions and decision-making power will be transferred to the algorithm.

This seems to have become a consensus. But Gilder pointed out that this set of ideas is actually a Google-style philosophical system.

Why is it Google style? Because it evolved from Google's business model.

Google's business model, summed up in a word, is an intelligent recommendation based on big data and algorithm. Users use Google's search to generate a large amount of user data. Based on this data, Google can push accurate marketing ads to users. At the beginning, people also need to take the initiative to search to get the information, products or services they want. However, with the maturity of big data and algorithm technology, the platform has transitioned to the recommendation era and become an intelligent recommendation tool.

Gilder believes that ideas like big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, which we are used to, are actually a copy and amplification of Google's business model. In his view, according to this path of evolution, we will never be able to create real intelligence.

Because there is a loophole in the current path, which is that computing speed can create intelligence, as long as there is enough data and computing speed is fast enough, then we can give consciousness and creativity to the machine.

Under this logic, computers and algorithms can make investments based on huge amounts of data without knowing a specific company or what they are doing. Computers do not need to know what a language means to accurately identify and translate.

But in fact, human science is not enough to fully understand the human brain and consciousness. In Gilder's view, it is impossible to build intelligence without understanding consciousness, but only a set of computer theories. Today's artificial intelligence is just an input and output algorithm, in Gilder's words, "it can't think at all."

Therefore, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing are only a technological evolution path from computing science to today, but it is not a definite path, nor is it necessarily the future.

So why are so many big companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing?

Gilder's answer is that if technology evolves along this path, current tech giants will become eternal winners. Because these technologies require a lot of capital investment and a lot of user-generated data, only large technology platforms can do these things.

Gilder believes that, in fact, there are other paths to the future of technological development.

For example, in his view, blockchain technology is another path of evolution. Now the data is concentrated in the hands of large companies, but the data can also be scattered, belonging to each individual. We are all talking about the future of big data, but Gilder believes that blockchain economy is the future.

Another possible evolution path is human-centered augmented reality and enhanced intelligence, rather than replacing the evolution path of human intelligence. Brain-computer interface, for example, is a technology that can enhance human intelligence.

To sum up, today I will introduce to you the thinker George Gilder's thoughts on the path of technological evolution. It is mainly divided into three points:

First of all, the technology trends that currently dominate, such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and big data, are actually the philosophy of technology put forward by big companies like Google.

Secondly, these technologies are only one of the paths of technological evolution in the future, not the final or the only definite path. The reason why technology leaders are so keen on technology like ABC is that it is in line with their position and allows big technology platforms to maintain their advantages.

Third, even for these three technologies, there are other evolution paths.

If you are interested in his point of view, you can take a look at Gilder's book, the Post-Google era, which is more comprehensive. Of course, Gilder's point of view is only a voice about technological evolution, and you are welcome to share your own judgment in the message area.

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