Shulou(Shulou.com)12/24 Report--

On December 7, the first AI PC Innovation Forum with the theme of "AI New Ecological Intelligence and New year" was held at Lenovo headquarters in Beijing. Fang Jing, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities electronics industry, was invited to attend and shared his investment advice on the AI PC industry with the theme of "the beginning of a new big cycle, AI brings investment opportunities".

Fang Jing said that the great development of PC hardware and AI applications is promoting the emergence of a new round of large cycle in the PC market. The computing power of the surging tide in the first half of the year is on the supply side, while the current densely landed AI terminals are on the demand side. PC market destocking has ended and has started to recover. AI PC is reconstructing productivity to perfectly solve the bright spots of local large model applications, privacy protection, and customized solutions. Lenovo is expected to occupy a core position in the new ecology of AI and lead this wave.

(Fang Jing, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities Electronic Industry)

He first reviewed the recent development of the PC market and said: "the performance of PC shipments in the first three quarters of this year shows that PC sales have been significantly repaired quarter by quarter after the gradual digestion of high inventories." He further points out that AI PC is restructuring productivity. Cloud computing has many problems such as high cost, high latency and poor data privacy. With the continuous development of AI large model distillation and compression technology, AI PC can not only localize the model, but also have four advantages: offline use, data security, low latency and customization. AI PC is bound to become the preferred terminal of AI.

"Lenovo is expected to lead the wave." He said that Lenovo made public AI PC for the first time on Tech World 2023. When planning travel itineraries using AI PC, its generation speed and quality reached the level of large public models, and routes can be customized according to departure location, flight preferences, hotel preferences and so on. In particular, it can be praised that the localization model only takes seven or eight seconds to complete the image generation and output, and the content is consistent with the dialogue context, which verifies that the model has the ability of continuous dialogue.

"in the AI PC era, Lenovo first showed AI PC products and embedded its own AI Twin model in the product, adapting from hardware to driver to software." He said, "under the background of serious homogenization of traditional PC hardware, the embedding ability of Lenovo's own AI model may reconstruct the competitiveness of PC brands and help Lenovo dominate the AI PC era."

AI PC can not only bring new growth for PC enterprises, but also set off a new round of changes in the PC industry. According to reports, the "AI PC Industry (China) White Paper" issued at this forum expanded the ecological scope of the AI PC industry to five participants, including users, terminal manufacturers, AI technology manufacturers, application manufacturers and computing manufacturers, among which AI technology manufacturers, as large model manufacturers, entered the industrial ecology for the first time.

In addition, the White Paper specifically points out that in the new ecosystem, terminal manufacturers will play the role of industry ecological organizers. First, it is the creator and maintainer of the AI entrance experience, the second is the guardian of personal data and privacy security, the third is the maintainer of open ecological organizations and standards, and the fourth is the integrated innovation delivery of "device + personal model + personal agent".

Fang Jing also puts forward investment suggestions for PC industrial ecology. First of all, the chip field such as CPU and GPU will become a must. At present, Intel and AMD have launched processor solutions with built-in NPU units, and Qualcomm has also released processors with built-in NPU based on ARM architecture. In the future, CPU+NPU+GPU or cooperation will become the AI PC computing base. Secondly, in the field of zero components, high-performance computing will produce greater power consumption, or put forward higher requirements for heat dissipation, electromagnetic shielding and lightweight, so it is recommended to pay attention to relevant enterprises. Third, the AI native curtain opens, AI applications will reconstruct the terminal experience, and AI intelligent terminals represented by AI PC provide hardware landing scenarios for AI applications on the demand side. AI application relies on AI intelligent terminal, which brings revolutionary new experience to the terminal under the blessing of AI, thus accelerating the penetration of intelligent terminal.

In addition, IDC predicts that China's AI PC will start in 2024, and the assembly proportion of AI PC (AI notebook computers, AI hybrid computers) in China's PC market will rise rapidly in the next few years, reaching 85% in 2027, becoming the mainstream of the PC market. Due to the arrival of AI PC, China's PC market will maintain a steady growth trend in the next five years, in which the total market size of desktops, notebooks and tablets will reach more than 80 million units in 2027, an increase of nearly 18% compared with 2003.

In the huge growth space, many securities firms are also optimistic about the leading effect of Lenovo. In addition to Minsheng Securities, Debang Securities, Southwest Securities, Huatai Securities and other brokerage research institutions have given positive investment evaluation to Lenovo. At the same time, many brokerages also predict that AI PC concept stocks are expected to break out in 2024.

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