Shulou(Shulou.com)12/24 Report--

Thank CTOnews.com netizen OC_Formula, Huake Xueba clue delivery! Bill Gates 'revelation has become the focus of discussion in the machine learning community:

"GPT-5 is not much better than GPT-4. "

Although he is no longer formally involved in Microsoft's day-to-day operations, he remains a consultant and familiar with the thinking of the OpenAI leadership team.

The news came from an interview with Gates in Handelsblatt.

Gates said that many people inside OpenAI, including Ultraman, believe that GPT-5 will be significantly better than GPT-4.

But he believes there are many reasons to believe that current generative AI has reached its limits.

(He admits he may be wrong.)

It's unclear how much of OpenAI's internal, unpublished information Gates saw, but at least it's certain that GPT-5 is already in development.

Ultraman also acknowledged this in an interview with the Financial Times before last week's uproar, though he did not disclose any release timetable.

In addition, the trademark of GPT-5 was also applied for by OpenAI's operating subsidiaries in various countries early on.

Gates is more optimistic about Agent About GPT-5, Ultraman has revealed that it needs more data for training, and the data will come from a combination of publicly available data sets on the Internet and proprietary data from the company.

OpenAI recently called on other organizations to provide large-scale data sets that are "currently not readily accessible online to the public," especially long pieces of writing or conversation in any format.

While GPT-5 may be more complex than its predecessor, Ultraman says it's technically difficult to predict exactly which new features the model might have that GPT-4 doesn't. "It was like a fun guessing game for us until we trained the model. "

In Gates 'view, AI's illusion problem will improve dramatically in a few years, and costs will fall rapidly, making new, reliable applications possible.

But the ability has reached its upper limit, and there will be no major leap like GPT-2 to GPT-4.

So what's the next breakthrough? Gates believes it is explicable AI, but it is not expected to happen until the next decade (2030-2039).

In addition, he also said that NVIDIA does not have an absolute advantage in AI chips, Microsoft Google Amazon including OpenAI itself are developing or considering developing their own AI chips.

Okay, so here's the problem--

If Gates is not so confident in the path of GPT-5, which of the current AI development paths does he like?

The answer: AI agents.

It's not a secret. Earlier this month, Gates wrote a blog post about "how personal AI agents will revolutionize the way people use computers."

In that blog post, he clearly wrote that AI agents will bring shock waves to the technology industry and society.

Specifically, Gates said:

In the near future, any netizen will be able to own an AI Agent, which is far beyond what is possible with today's technology.

Agents can play a role anywhere in life and have a profound impact on software business and society.

And this isn't the first time Gates has been publicly identified as an AI Agent platform.

At an AI event in May, Gates predicted in an interview that the first company to develop an AI Agent would have a place among its competitors.

The reason is that AI Agent will bring a fatal blow to search engines. With such an all-powerful agent, what search websites, productivity websites, Amazon ah, these will be thrown out of the clouds by netizens at that time.

Moreover, Gates 'optimism about Agent is not just lip service.

In June, Gates joined Nvidia, Microsoft, Reed Hoffman (Linkedin) and Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO) in investing in the AI unicorn ReflectionAI.

In addition to Hoffman, who "voted for myself," there are two DeepMind-born tycoons.

However, this investment is obviously not just a bet on the founder. The focus is still on what Inflection AI is doing_

A personal AI assistant called Pi.

Pi can also help search or answer questions, but its main function is emotional companionship, which is more colloquial and personal than ChatGPT and Claude."When users communicate with Pi, they feel like chatting with relatives and friends around them."

To be honest, Pi is known for its high EQ, but the technology and actual experience behind it are far from the AI Agent Gates imagined.

But Gates said he had been thinking about the subject 30 years earlier, writing about it in his 1995 book Future Path.

However, limited by the development of AI technology, until recently, only to see the light of novice villages like Pi.

"Agents will not only change the way everyone interacts with computers. Gates also wrote in his blog post,"Agents will disrupt the software industry, which will be the biggest computing revolution from typing commands to clicking icons. "

In Gates 'vision, Agent can help you accomplish anything you want.

AI won't take away your job, but it could make it possible for people to work only three days a week in the future.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimonye also predicted that the next generation of workers will only work 3.5 days a week due to artificial intelligence.

One More Thing But don't indulge in Gates 'three-day week.

Gates is not known for his accurate predictions, although he often expresses his views on the future.

At this time, some netizens will turn up his "640K memory is enough for anyone" and "I think the business potential of the Internet in the next 10 years is very small."

Reference link:

[1]https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/ki/bill-gates-mit-ki-koennen-medikamente-viel-schneller-entwickelt-werden/29450298.html

[2]https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/183tft1/bill_gates_told_a_german_newspaper_that_gpt5/

[3]https://www.gatesnotes.com/AI-agents

This article comes from Weixin Official Accounts: Qubit (ID: QbitAI), by Heng Yumengchen

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