Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Recently, with the disclosure of the three quarterly reports of public offering, the main direction of institutional attention has also surfaced. Among them, AI, as a hot track this year, has driven the organization's enthusiasm for the configuration of the computer industry. From the data point of view, the focus of the organization on the configuration of the computer industry is mainly focused on AI, computing and other areas, reflecting its optimism on the long-term trend of AI.

In the era of digital economy, scientific and technological innovation is becoming the key ability to drive enterprises to achieve long-term growth, and this round of technological change led by AI is the main force to promote scientific and technological innovation, so enterprises with AI R & D capabilities not only have strong competitiveness at the operational level, but also have been widely concerned and favored by the market at the investment level. For example, Lenovo Group, which recently has a leading edge in the AP PC field, leads the wave of innovation in AI hardware and terminals, and its valuation is expected to be reshaped, winning the bullish view of the top investment banks at home and abroad.

AI is still the main investment line in the computer industry.

According to Citic Securities's analysis of the heavy position in the computer industry, the total stock market value of the 2023Q3 computer industry is 127.3 billion yuan, and the market capitalization of the heavy position computer industry accounts for 4.69% of the total size, slightly lower than the previous month, and the standard allocation ratio is 0.9% lower. In terms of sub-industry, the share of cloud services and computer equipment increased by 3.56% and 2.01% respectively, indicating that AI computing-related sectors still have a high degree of attention.

From the allocation ratio, the position level of institutions in the computer industry declined in the third quarter, for which the brokerage believes that compared with the historical level, there is a large upward space in the current computer industry. In addition, from the number of institutional holdings, shareholding market value, 2023Q3 institutions more heavy positions in AI, cloud computing, intelligent driving and other companies, which also means that the computer industry with AI as the main line of investment is still worthy of attention.

The underlying driving force of AI technology is computing power, algorithms and data. Around these three core elements, the main line of AI investment includes upstream computing power and data tracks, specific products and services include AI servers, optical modules, AI chips and data centers, liquid cooling equipment, etc.; the middle reaches mainly provide large models of complex algorithms Downstream focuses on the application side, and promotes the integration of AI+, AI+ education, AI+ and other fields in the direction of generative artificial intelligence (AIGC).

At the present stage, institutional investment in the AI industrial chain is mainly focused on the upstream, especially the computing sector has attracted much attention. As the core driving force of the development of AI, on the one hand, it is an important driving force for data value mining, on the other hand, it is one of the key elements to support the implementation of the algorithm. Computing power has become the focus of the science and technology strategic layout of major countries and enterprises, so it is supported at the policy level. And become the direction with the highest certainty in the current market.

In fact, based on the AI model and the accelerated development of AIGC applications, the demand for computing power has exploded, and the development of computing power has ushered in broad prospects. IDC predicts that the global market for AI computing will grow from $19.5 billion in 2022 to $34.66 billion in 2026. Computer manufacturers have become the key enterprises under the main line of AI investment.

Lenovo Group, as the world's largest provider of computing infrastructure and the third largest server provider in the world, has scored 483 world performance test records as of October 1 this year. Since the beginning of this year, around AI computing power, Lenovo Group has launched AI server products one after another, such as the Lenovo WA7780 G3 AI large model training server launched in August this year. At the Lenovo Innovation and Technology Conference that ended a few days ago, Lenovo Group also released ThinkEdge SE455 V3 edge server products for edge computing, which supports artificial intelligence loads and dedicated solutions for telecom operators.

AI is expected to help Lenovo reshape its valuation.

There is no doubt about the potential of AI to accelerate productivity change, but the main question at present is how to implement AI applications more economically and efficiently in various scenarios and promote AI penetration in various industries. "AI for All", which allows everyone to use artificial intelligence, has become the development goal of AI enterprises.

Lenovo Group is a practitioner of "AI for All". At the recently concluded 2023 Lenovo Innovation and Technology Conference, Lenovo Group took this as a vision and released a hybrid AI framework, which is based on public model, private model and personal model framework, which can promote the application of artificial intelligence in many fields while ensuring privacy and security, and meet the diversified needs of different scenarios.

With the support of hybrid AI framework, Lenovo took the lead in promoting the reform of AI PC. AI PC is a disruptive mixture of devices, edge computing and cloud technology, with strong computing power and advanced AI technology. It can run a large model through model compression technology, fully meet the needs of new generative AI workloads, and further improve productivity and simplify workflows, while protecting personal privacy and data security.

From a technical point of view, AI PC is a revolutionary product of Lenovo Group and a new intelligent productivity tool tailored for enterprises and individuals. In terms of product experience, Lenovo AI PC has the characteristics and advantages of customization, security, innovative interaction, and fully meeting the generated AI workload, which mainly depends on Lenovo's strong technical strength, through the use of individual human model, large model compression technology, etc., to achieve the "off-cloud" deployment of generative AI, which allows users' own PC to run the computing power of personal large models. The personal large model will use the personal data stored on the device or home server for generative AI reasoning, so as to realize the protection of personal privacy and data security.

Led by Lenovo Group AI PC, the terminal is expected to usher in a wave of AI innovation, bringing new opportunities for the consumer electronics industry. China Merchants Securities, founder Securities, Huafu Securities and other brokerage investment banks generally believe that the integration of AI and terminals will become an important direction for consumer electronics manufacturers to enhance personalized user experience and create product differentiation competitiveness, and it is also the growth trend of the consumer electronics industry in the next few years. The launch of new terminal products with stronger AI capabilities may lead consumer electronics to bottom out and recover.

From the perspective of the PC market of the representative market of the consumer electronics industry, the emergence of AI PC will lead the PC industry to usher in a major replacement cycle and open up the space for development. According to the forecast of Canalys, the penetration rate of AI PC will reach 19% in 2024. AI PC is expected to achieve explosive growth in 2025 and 2026. Global shipments of AI PC are expected to exceed 170 million units by 2027, and the penetration rate is expected to rise to 60%. The compound annual growth rate of shipments between 2023 and 2027 will reach 63%. It can be said that, with the continuous development of AI technology, the continuous improvement of AI PC performance will promote AI PC to release huge market potential.

At present, the PC industry is going through an adjustment period, the inventory cycle is coming to an end, and a full recovery is looming. According to Gartner, 2023Q3 shipped 64.3 million PC units worldwide, down 9% from the same period last year. The market is expected to begin to recover in 23Q4, and the global PC market is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2024.

As of the third quarter of this year, Lenovo Group PC ranked first in the industry, with a market share of 25.1%, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year. Full recovery of PC is imminent, superimposed AI PC is available for commercial use, and Lenovo Group fundamentals are expected to continue to improve. Based on the promotion of AI strategy and the overall improvement of PC business, Lenovo has won the collective bullish of top investment banks at home and abroad, such as Goldman Sachs, CITIC Lyon, Guotai Junan, Everbright Securities and so on.

The terminal represented by AI PC will release the value potential of AI. Lenovo Group, as a leader in this field, has broad long-term growth space and long-term investment value. As Everbright Securities points out, AI PC will boost Lenovo's valuation in the short term, while it is expected to be reshaped in the medium to long term after a full return of fundamentals and verification of AI PC data.

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