Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Wen | Aohu

Xiaomi will offer an extended-range version, which is close at present; the new M7 has dropped by 40,000, so the order is full; the ideal continues to soar and is preparing to hit 40,000 vehicles in October.

"refueling" has almost become the magic weapon for the survival of today's new energy market, while those who immerse themselves in all-in pure electricity are mostly "as soon as this year and no later than next year", which makes people marvel at how important the choice is, but also a bit ironic.

Fengshui turns around Xiaomi, a digital brand that does not reject the smell of gasoline. It sounds like Apple's car interior with a bunch of physical buttons, smelling like a realistic desire for survival.

As we all know, the new energy market is in full swing, but there are only two companies that can make a profit: one is ideal, every car produced so far can be refueled; the other is BYD, which sells half of its annual sales of PHEV.

The former needless to say, the latter has been explained many times, and readers who have a basic understanding of the principle of mixing should also understand that the series-parallel DHT plug-in represented by DM-i is, to a large extent, a close relative of extended-range mixing.

It is a thing of the past for Zero and Nezha to launch extended-range models one after another, and Zero recently played the "super extended-range" brand, which lowered the threshold for 300km to extend its battery range to 150000 yuan. Changan Deep Blue entered the club with monthly sales of more than 10,000 soon after the S7 was listed, indicating that the previous SL03 only suffered a loss in the form of a car.

If you look at the overall sales share of the market, the difference in the growth rate of pure electricity and plug-in is very obvious. Considering the new generation of PHEV models, almost all of them are extended range and series-parallel DHT with extended range color, which can be generally summarized as the concept of "pan-extended range".

PHEV accounted for about 25% of total NEV (new energy) sales last year, rising to 32.5% in the first nine months of this year, and more than 30% in the last four consecutive months from June to September, according to the Federation.

Of course, this trend has been apparent since last year. For the whole of 2022, the entire new energy market grew by 90 per cent year-on-year, with sales of pure electricity and PHEV growing by 74.2 per cent and 160.5 per cent respectively.

With the increase of the volume and proportion of PHEV, the pulling effect of new energy as a whole begins to highlight, and the degree of pure electricity "losing the market" is becoming more and more obvious. In the first nine months of this year, pure electricity sales rose 18.1 per cent year-on-year, while 33.8 per cent of the entire new energy market was topped by 84.5 per cent of PHEV.

In terms of volume, in the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy increased by 1.31 million vehicles over the same period last year, of which pure electricity sold 537000 more than the same period last year, while PHEV sold 773000 more than the same period last year (1.812 million for pure electricity and 875000 for PHEV).

-- the incremental space of the PHEV market is significantly larger than that of pure electricity, which means that it is less difficult for PHEV to survive / expand than pure electricity as a whole, which is consistent with what we have perceived in the past two years.

Where did the baton come from? two seemingly unrelated things happened in early 2021: BYD released the DM-i hybrid technology for the first time, and Shanghai announced that the PHEV model would no longer give a free green card from 2023.

As a "transition" or "compromise" form between pure electric vehicles and pure fuel vehicles (including HEV), PHEV has always enjoyed preferential treatment under the new energy policy, but there is a discount compared with pure electricity: the pure electricity policy is 10%, and the PHEV is given six or seven points.

According to the "normal" logic, with the gradual maturity of the new energy market, the competition logic changes from policy-led to market-led, and the policy preferential treatment enjoyed by "pure electricity + PHEV" as a whole should be gradually reduced. We have already seen this process.

In the overall decline, how to balance the two is also a problem. In order to speed up the transformation to pure electricity, we should control the decline rate of pure electricity policy is slower than PHEV, widen the policy gap between the two; to shift the market as a whole to new energy as soon as possible (it doesn't matter that pure electricity is necessary), then we can maintain or even reduce the policy gap between the two.

The reality presents the second situation. in the past two years, with the increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the pressure of the new energy policy on the fuel vehicle market, which is still dominant, needs to be released, so we see that the central government has explicitly ordered that all localities are not allowed to add new traffic restrictions, which is bad news for the green card market.

Among the "small families" of pure electricity and PHEV, pure electricity is the one that is relatively more dependent on policy support, the one that is more sensitive to the impact of policy decline (including no new traffic restrictions), and the one that has suffered more from policy changes in the past two years.

First of all, pure electricity, like PHEV, will have no new energy subsidies from 2023, and consumers can perceive that both are tax-free. But PHEV requires fewer batteries and has a natural advantage over pure electricity in cost. Today, the small battery PHEV can easily be comparable to the tax price of the same type of fuel car, and its attraction to fuel car owners can be imagined.

Second, PHEV can also enjoy the cost advantage of low electricity prices. Among them, the DHT plug-in and extended range of the large battery can have the use experience of the pure electric vehicle with high close to the small battery, at the same time, it also adds the option of using fuel, the convenience is the same as the fuel vehicle.

Finally, in most traffic-restricted cities, PHEV enjoys the same preferential treatment as pure electricity, such as giving license plates, no traffic restrictions, parking discounts and so on. The suspension of traffic restrictions and purchase restrictions in various places has also frozen adverse changes such as the cancellation of the PHEV green card in Shanghai.

Both Pure Power and PHEV are affected by the new energy policy, but they are different in sensitivity to the same extent of slope decline. It is also the termination of subsidies, the suspension of traffic restrictions and purchase restrictions, and the momentum of pure electricity will inevitably stall, while PHEV has come to a "policy-product power" dessert area that is most conducive to its competition for swinging users.

At best, this shows that China's support for the new energy industry over the past years can at least give such a result: at least, the PHEV, a new energy vehicle that uses "partial electricity", can survive and compete for the fuel vehicle market almost without relying on policy.

In the past years, the basic picture of the new energy vehicle industry is pure electricity as a vanguard to compete for users one by one from the fuel vehicle market, and PHEV does not like both sides in the gap; but today, the help of policy has been greatly reduced, the speed of pure electric infiltration has slowed down, and the PHEV with lower barriers has taken the baton to rapidly increase the penetration rate of new energy.

Without the development and popularization of extended range and DHT technology, PHEV would not have taken over smoothly after pure power stall; without the retrogression of new energy policy but at the same time relaxed to PHEV, the extended range would not be so popular today.

Protect the extended range of our pure electricity to boost the PHEV market and continue to expand the overall share of new energy. On the one hand, it is a good thing to first allow more cars to use electricity (even if it is not "only"); on the other hand, we should also consider that this trend should not be allowed to adversely affect the development of pure electricity.

We have refuted the saying that "interruption / extension is just a transition" too many times. To put it simply, this kind of non-quantitative qualitative is meaningless. Without defining the time span, everything in the world can be a transition; if the time span is defined, as long as the expected transition time is longer than the normal life of the commodity, it is meaningless for the individual not to transition.

But then again, our ultimate goal of developing new energy vehicles is obviously zero emissions, and pure electricity is the only realistic option at present. Even if PHEV ate up the rest of the fuel cars, it would have changed from "only burning fuel" to "burning but not burning".

The policy support for pure electric vehicles, or new energy vehicles as a whole, has shrunk, on the one hand, it has been subsidized for a long time, and the industry has matured, on the other hand, it is also related to the uncertainty of the economic environment in the past two years. The overall downturn in car consumption is related to the gradual deregulation of license plate control.

It is also understandable that if the overall passenger car market shrinks from 20 million to 15 million, there is no point in increasing new energy penetration from 30 per cent to 40 per cent, both 6 million. It is important to improve the structure and increase the share of a certain type, but only if the market does not shrink too much.

Therefore, in the past two years, the reduction of support for electric vehicles, the main force of the new energy market in the past, is not only a necessity in the process of development, but also a requirement of dynamic adjustment with the environment.

In this context, it is reasonable and expedient to allow PHEV to take the first step to achieve "partial electrification" of fuel vehicles. But at the same time, it is also necessary to remember that PHEV is not the ultimate goal of new energy development after all, and the seeds of pure electricity need to be protected.

Holiday high-speed charging is not only a "face-to-face confrontation" between pure electric car owners and PHEV owners, but also the most intuitive embodiment of the competition for social resources between pure electricity and PHEV. This kind of competition for resources should be a problem solved by the whole society, rather than being so popular that car owners are allowed to hurt each other.

The reason is very simple, whether for self-owned piles or third-party service providers, compared with PHEV users, pure electricity users are obviously more expensive to use charging services on weekdays.

Then there is a reason for service providers to make a difference between pure electricity and PHEV charging, or provide higher priority reservation rights, and so on. The former has a more urgent demand for charging services and there is no alternative, and it is also a group that is more critical to the survival and operation of service providers.

The increase in the price of public charging piles is no longer new. Since service providers can charge different charging fees according to different locations, periods and dates, there is no pressure to distinguish charging standards according to different models, brands and power attributes, and there is no pressure for PHEV owners to swallow you.

Again, if you can use the "invisible hand" to control things, please don't let pure electric car owners and PHEV owners have a war of words on social networks and meat fights at offline charging stations.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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