Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

A few days ago, CCS Insight, a market research company, predicted in a report that HTC would sell its VR business and withdraw from the VR market in 2026 because of market uncertainty.

The news soon aroused widespread attention and discussion. HTC may no longer be the smartphone hegemon in the past, but at least it is the forerunner of VR, and once it can even be said that VR is the market leader.

Of course, HTC soon issued a solemn statement denying the rumors that it would withdraw from the VR market in 2026. In the statement, HTC also said that VR virtual reality, AR augmented reality and AI artificial intelligence technology will be the three pillars of future technology. "these technologies will not only combine with human nature, but also release human imagination, thus completely changing our world." "

In short: the market potential is so great that HTC can never give up.

But CCS Insight's prediction may not be reliable, and HTC's solemn statement is not very convincing.

It should be remembered that HTC was rumored to be selling its smartphone business at the end of 2016, which was also officially "solemnly denied", but by September 2017, HTC had sold to Google about 2, 000 members and licensed patents that helped build Pixel phones-- basically hollowing out HTC's mobile phone division.

Will history repeat itself?

The old and new forces reshuffle, the rumors that HTC is gradually on the edge of HTC to withdraw from the VR market can trigger discussion, the realistic basis is still because the VR business of HTC has developed slowly in recent years, and even many people have not heard the relevant news of HTC Vive for several years. It wasn't until the CES show earlier this year that HTC unveiled its first wireless all-in-one head display: HTC Vive XR Elite.

Vive XR Elite, figure / HTC but in the past two or three years, the AR / VR market has undergone a lot of changes.

Meta's bet on wireless all-in-one VR head display finally came to fruition. Quest 2 exploded the VR head display market around the world, achieving 10 million-level VR head display sales for the first time, and it also means a lot to Meta. Of the nearly 20 million units sold in the Quest series, the Quest 2 sold more than 18 million units, according to officials.

At the end of last year, AR glasses brand Xreal (formerly Nreal) announced the release of the 100000 AR glasses, achieving the world's first consumer AR hardware to break through 100000 sets of mass production.

Not to mention the release of Apple Vision Pro this year has attracted the attention of all companies and practitioners, including potential competitors of Vision Pro, as XREAL founder and CEO Xu Chi said: "this year is an exciting year for the domestic VR / AR industry. The emergence of Apple's MR shows the entire industry the direction of future development. "

As HTC said, VR, AR and AI will be the pillars of the future, but the question is, can HTC have a place in this new wave of computing? This is the core of it.

You know, a few years ago, HTC was a forerunner and leader in the VR market, not only in terms of products and market share, but also in a strategically advantageous position to launch a large number of ecological cultivation programs to support startups in various VR industrial chains.

However, many things have changed after all.

From smartphones to VR,HTC, 2015 is a critical year for HTC to capture the new wave of computing.

This year, Wang Xuehong, founder and chairman of HTC, stepped forward as concurrently CEO to take the helm of HTC, and Zhou Yongming, the former CEO, turned to research and development. At the same time, HTC also began to make a formal bet on VR, jointly with V Society (Steam parent company) to release the first generation of VR head show-HTC Vive.

In April of the following year, HTC held the VR China Strategy and Biosphere Conference in Beijing. According to the recollection of the attendees, the hall was so packed that many had to stand and listen to the whole meeting. Not only that, HTC has also launched a support program for the global VR startup team, the Vive X Accelerator program.

In the past, as a pure hardware manufacturer, HTC has hardly any ecological experience, but the Vive X Accelerator program has launched three phases, investing more than 90 start-up teams in Beijing, Shenzhen, Taipei and Los Angeles.

In addition, HTC has reached a deep cooperation with iqiyi to promote the landing of iqiyi 4K UHD VR video on the Vive platform; an exclusive cooperation with Warner Brothers to produce relevant VR content for the popular movie "number one player"; and NetEase Game to launch the VR game "Dragon Caller at Dawn".

Behind HTC's all-out bet on VR, there is not only his own determination, but also a good time, because in the second year, Samsung, Google, Xiaomi, Huawei, Pico …... Domestic and foreign technology giants and start-ups have entered this blue ocean, mergers and acquisitions and investment in the field of VR have emerged one after another, and a VR craze has swept the world.

Xiaomi press conference, picture / Xiaomi

At that time, media, investors and manufacturers were all talking about "the first year of VR." Wang Congqing, general manager of HTC China, even optimistically predicted that VR equipment sales would surpass that of mobile phones in four years' time, and the future market value would exceed US $110 billion.

As we all know the rest of the story, the VR industry soon experienced a new round of cold wave. The generally high cost and price of VR equipment, the immaturity of VR-related technology, and the continuous expansion of smartphones all make VR manufacturers face the dilemma of being unable to sell their products.

Even if HTC Vive ranked first in JD.com 's VR sales during the Singles 11 Shopping Festival in 2017, HTC Vive shipped only 500000 units in 2017, according to industry research firm TrendForce. In 2018, that number continued to fall to 230000.

Will HTC Vive still be there three years from now? To answer this question, we must first return to the premise that CCS Insight predicts that HTC will withdraw from the VR market-the uncertainty of the market. There are two meanings here, one is whether the VR market will experience a low ebb after the MR boom triggered by Apple's Vision Pro, and the other is whether HTC Vive will be further marginalized in the next three years.

The actual situation may not be very optimistic.

In terms of products, the HTC Vive product line is basically high-end positioning, the original Vive is priced at US $800,000 (domestic 6888 yuan), and the latest Vive XR Elite is priced at US $1099 (about RMB 8021), which is between the Quest series and Vision Pro, similar to the previous Quest Pro.

Vive XR Elite, figure / HTC but at this price, the head display manufacturer needs to give a strong driving force to convince consumers to buy. The problem is that before the failure of Quest Pro, how can HTC subvert the perception of the existing market when it is difficult to say the advantages of hardware configuration, chips, algorithms, and capital?

Of course, Apple's $3400 Vision Pro price also needs a stronger reason to convince consumers, but at least Apple has given subversive displays, interactions and ideas, "space video", "immersive ultra-clear viewing" and Apple's appeal to developers, at least with the integration of its own chip and software and hardware.

And HTC has missed out on the early dividends of wireless all-in-one VR headsets, and the broader new generation of consumer VR headset users trust that the market appeal of Quets, PS VR and Pico,HTC Vive is not what it used to be.

Frankly speaking, in this context, it is difficult to be optimistic whether HTC can still turn against the wind.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: little Ray Beep (ID:xiaoleibbb), author: winter Jam

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