Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, October 20, according to an article posted by Cui Dongshu on official account, retail sales of consumer automobiles in September totaled 438.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3 percent in September automobile production of 2.83 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3 percent. Cui Dongshu believes that this is "a return to steady growth."

Cui Dongshu claimed that the relationship between car sales and real estate sales in 2023 was 40 square meters per car, and the comparative relationship between sales was "slightly improved" and was "more reasonable" than the peak of 70 square meters per car in 2020.

At present, the demand of the car market is seriously depressed relative to the property market. As the only consumer goods that have not been popularized by urban and rural households in China, the overall trend of the national passenger car market is not strong in recent years, and the consumption of passenger cars remains in the doldrums. Investment in the property market squeezes consumption, which makes it difficult to effectively promote the high-quality development of residents' production and living consumption.

Cui Dongshu believes that at present, the pressure on the growth of automobile consumption is still great, and in order to promote consumption in the auto market, the relevant departments can promote measures such as "reducing and reducing personal tax for car buyers,"cars going to the countryside," and "encouraging marriage to buy cars." promote car consumption and promote economic growth.

CTOnews.com collates Cui Dongshu's analysis data as follows:

The recovery of automobile consumption is strong

In September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.9826 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5 percent over the same period last year, according to ▲. Of this total, retail sales of automobile consumer goods totaled 438.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3 percent, accounting for 10.8 percent of the total. Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods other than cars totaled 3.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9 percent.

From January to September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 34.2107 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, retail sales of automobile consumer goods totaled 3.4837 trillion yuan, up 5 percent, accounting for 10.1 percent of the total. Retail sales of consumer goods other than cars totaled 30.727 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0 percent.

The output of cars is gradually strengthening.

Cui Dongshu, a ▲ figure source, said that the output of 337 of the 620 products increased in September compared with the same period last year.

In September, there were 2.833 million cars, up 3.4 percent, of which 847000 were new energy vehicles, up 12.5 percent; electricity generation was 745.6 billion kilowatt hours, up 7.7 percent; and crude oil processing was 63.62 million tons, up 12.0 percent.

The automobile added value performed well in 2023.

Cui Dongshu, the source of ▲ pictures, in September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 4.5% in real terms compared with the same period last year, of which the added value of cars increased by 9%. From January to September, industrial added value maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%. Of this total, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 11.4%.

The added value of the automobile industry increased by 4.9% in 2018. In 2019, the added value of the auto industry rebounded to 6.6% in 2020. The growth rate hovered at 5.5% in 2021, and the automobile added value in 2022 was stronger, at 6.3%.

The 11.4% increase in value added from January to September in 2023 is relatively huge, and the added value is good.

The utilization rate of automobile capacity is stable.

▲ Touyuan Cui Dongshu in the third quarter of this year, the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country was 75.6%, basically the same as the same period last year and up 1.1% over the second quarter. In terms of major industries, the automobile manufacturing industry was 75.6% in the third quarter, down slightly from the previous year.

Production of new energy vehicles

▲ Touyuan Cui Dongshu produced an average of 34000 cars a day in September, down 2.1 per cent from a year earlier. Due to the high base of epidemic factors last year, car production is mediocre this year. The production time in September this year is short, and the characteristics of destocking are slightly reflected.

▲ Touyuan Cui Dongshu sub-products, in September, the average number of cars per day was 94000, an increase of 3.4%. Considering the high base effect in September 2022, the high growth rate this year is very good.

▲ source Cui Dongshu has been strong in commercial vehicles and weak in passenger cars in the past two years. 26.53 million cars will be produced in 2021. The consumption structure is further detrimental to consumption, the growth rate of car production is low, which is weaker than the average growth rate of cars, and the growth rate of SUV production is lower than the overall growth rate of cars, which has become a depressed factor to restrain consumption.

In 2018, 1.3 million new energy vehicles were produced, an increase of 40% over 2017, and continued to maintain a strong high growth trend. Production of 1.19 million new energy vehicles in 2019, down 1%, is weak.

In 2022, 27.48 million cars were produced, an increase of 3 percent over the same period last year, and the production of new energy vehicles was 7.22 million, an increase of 98 percent, with a penetration rate of 26 percent.

From January to September 2023, 20.91 million cars were produced, an increase of 5 percent over the same period last year; and 6.09 million new energy vehicles were produced, an increase of 27 percent over the same period last year, with a penetration rate of 29 percent, which is a high growth.

In September 2023, automobile production was 2.83 million, an increase of 3% over the same period last year; new energy vehicle production was 847000, an increase of 13% over the same period last year, with a penetration rate of 30%, which is a return to steady growth.

Auto investment resumes growth in 2023

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu automobile investment increased by 20.4% from January to September in 2023, and automobile investment has picked up obviously this year, which is at the highest level in nearly six years. The growth of new energy has led to a gradual improvement in the downturn in investment in the automotive industry.

The squeezing effect of the automobile market consumption caused by the sharp increase in house prices continues to be strong.

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu 2016-2019 hot property market has a great impact, the late gradual cooling to promote the car market is better.

At present, from January to September in 2023, the property market is depressed from a high base, the sales in the eastern region are better, and the current household income does not support the persistently high debt, so the cooling of the property market is conducive to the development of the car market.

▲ Tuyuan Cui Dongshu at present, the relationship between car sales and real estate sales in 2023 is 40 square meters: a car, the comparison of sales is more unreasonable, although the saloon car compared to the highest 70 square meters of a car in 2020 has improved, but the squeeze consumption pressure is still large, resulting in a serious downturn in the car market demand relative to the property market.

Real estate loans have shrunk sharply, and investment in the property market is mainly supported by residents' deposits and advance receipts, which has a certain diversion impact on car purchase funds in the car market.

The wealth effect of the property market has a certain promoting effect on the demand for high-end cars, and the recent decline in debt pressure in the property market also brings some potential benefits to improve the consumption of the car market.

The consumption of the automobile market in 2023 needs continuous policy support.

In September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.9826 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5 percent over the same period last year, according to ▲. Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles totaled 3.5443 trillion yuan, up 5.9 percent, while retail sales of automobile consumer goods totaled 438.3 billion yuan, up 3 percent.

From January to September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 34.2107 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods other than cars totaled 30.727 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0 percent. The retail sales of automobile consumer goods totaled 3.4837 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%.

At present, the problem of sluggish consumption has slightly improved. Although automobile consumption has returned to positive growth from January to September, due to the high base, there is still great pressure for future growth.

In recent years, the consumption of refined oil is relatively high, which is also the loss of sales of automobile consumption. In the overall social retail, the retail performance of goods above the quota is weak, which reflects that the real estate has a great impact on consumption, and the restraining effect of the real estate market on the overall bulk consumption is obvious.

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