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Wen | Lao Li from Financial Street

Recently, the news of Xiaomi car has spread frequently.

First, Xiaomi's official recruitment website opened a series of positions such as extended range system designer and fuel system engineer. It means that Xiaomi car may lay out the added products, just like the ideal and the world, and move towards the development mode of "pure electric + added program" flying together.

At the same time, Xiaomi's official Wechat account was officially launched, and satellite images of Xiaomi's car factory were exposed. Xiaomi, which will launch its first model next year, seems to be in the stage of warm-up for communication.

However, these news were completely overshadowed by Huawei and the boundary in the same period. It also reflects concerns about the future of Xiaomi cars. The consensus in the industry this year is that the car-building window is closing and the market is entering a white-hot melee. Does Xiaomi still have a chance if it is not on the table?

Lao Li believes that Xiaomi will be successful, but there is still uncertainty about how big its future will be. Lao Li came to talk to you today. Why did Xiaomi seize the last window? What is the "golden key" of Xiaomi car? Why does the unknown determine the future?

In the final window, any industry has a fixed law of development, and so are new energy vehicles. According to the law of the development of the manufacturing industry, at the end of the growth of the industry, big players still have the opportunity to enter. This is the window of Xiaomi cars. With the change of the market pattern, the entry window will become smaller and smaller.

Three years ago, many friends said that China is the most "volume" place of new energy vehicles in the world, one of the reasons is that there are enough new energy vehicle enterprises in China, which can be divided into four camps: first, Chinese traditional forces, represented by BYD and Great Wall Motor; second, new forces of foreign investment, represented by Tesla; third, new forces of China, represented by Wei Xiaoli. Fourth, foreign traditional car companies, represented by Volkswagen and Toyota. At this stage, any enterprise has the opportunity to enter, and there is a success rate.

A few years ago, due to multiple factors such as policies, there was still a lot of discussion and controversy about the market pattern of new energy vehicles, but with the withdrawal of subsidies and market-oriented competition, the market pattern of new energy vehicles has moved from the Spring and Autumn period to the warring States period. in Lao Li's view, the current market pattern of new energy vehicles is mainly divided into three echelons:

The first echelon, represented by BYD and Tesla, is mainly characterized by annual production and sales of more than 1 million vehicles. The meaning of 1 million is not a simple number, but the system behind it. BYD is the leading enterprise in China and even the global new energy vehicle market, and has absolute advantages in all aspects of "research, production, supply and marketing service". Tesla built his own system through product innovation, manufacturing innovation and service innovation to ensure the core competitiveness.

The second echelon includes new car-building forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal, as well as Geely and Great Wall among traditional car companies. the typical characteristic of this echelon is that the sales volume is 100000-300000 vehicles, and the development route is multiple. For example, both Weilai and Xiaopeng take the pure electric route, the ideal route is the "extended range hybrid + pure electric" route, while Geely and Great Wall take the plug-in hybrid route, and different technical routes determine the sales potential. The sales potential of extended range hybrid and parity plug hybrid is much greater than that of pure electric.

Lao Li believes that the development speed of the second echelon of enterprises determines the width of the industry entering the window period. Once the annual sales of the second echelon of enterprises exceed 500000 vehicles, then there is a great possibility to break through 1 million vehicles in the future. BYD, Great Wall and Geely have all gone through the same process. Ideal car sales are expected to exceed 300000 this year, which is likely to reach 500000 within three years. If companies such as Geely and Great Wall plug in and mix with fuel vehicles at the same price, then these enterprises are also likely to break through the annual sales of 500000 new energy vehicles and enter the first echelon. The more enterprises in the first echelon, the smaller the chances of new entrants.

The third echelon is a joint venture brand with annual sales of less than 100000 vehicles and other enterprises. Lao Li does not introduce too much here. For these enterprises, being in the second echelon is the primary goal.

Seeing here, you will find that, in fact, the domestic market pattern of new energy vehicles is far from solidified. It can be said that in the next five years, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales will slow down, but the market will certainly show a trend of diversification and differentiation. This is an excellent opportunity for Xiaomi to enter. Everything is ready, except Dongfeng. In fact, the future of Xiaomi has always been in Xiaomi's hands.

Is the "golden key" enough? Many friends are discussing whether there will be a market prospect for millet cars. This is an open question, many people will have different answers, but most people's answer is yes, because Xiaomi car is born with a "golden key", Xiaomi Group's core strengths and resources will be reflected in Xiaomi Automobile. If the market pattern gives Xiaomi the last chance to enter, then the market prospect of Xiaomi depends entirely on Xiaomi.

First of all, let's take a look at the "golden key" of Xiaomi car. First of all, the brand culture of Xiaomi emphasizes "born for fever" and pays attention to user experience and product quality. this brand culture attracts a large number of loyal fans. improve the brand awareness and reputation, in addition, because Xiaomi has established such a brand and user base Lao Li believes that Xiaomi is likely to break the 100000 order mark in the first year.

The second is the channel advantage. The future sales model of Xiaomi is similar to that of Huawei and Zhanjie, using the combination of online and offline channels. Xiaomi's online channels have obvious advantages in terms of flow. and the direct stores and cooperative stores of offline channels will also be used by Xiaomi cars, the advantages of this channel will help to improve the popularity, flow and market share of Xiaomi automobile brand.

The third is the advantage of internationalization. at present, going out to sea of domestic new energy vehicles is already an important way to drive sales. Domestic new cars are sold overseas, and it is only a matter of time before Xiaomi cars go out to sea. When domestic car companies are suffering from going out to sea resources, Xiaomi Group has established a first-mover advantage for Xiaomi Automobile. Xiaomi Group's international strategic system has set up branches and R & D centers in many regions around the world. This can promote Xiaomi to better understand the needs of the local market and launch localized products. Taking into account the pace of enterprise development, the advantages of internationalization will not be highlighted until two or three years later.

The advantages of Xiaomi Group have laid a certain foundation for the development of Xiaomi Automobile, and will help the development of Xiaomi Automobile in a certain period of time in the future, but if we look back at the development of any new force in car building, competitive products will always be the stepping stone to the market.

Let's take the ideal with high market recognition as an example. The ideal can move from 0 to 300000 mainly depends on the product. Lao Li shares the ideal product advantage with you:

First, the positioning is clear, L series of the three cars are aimed at different market segments of the needs of users.

Second, the technical route, the ideal car through the power combination of large-capacity battery pack and high-power extended range power generation system to solve the current pure electric vehicle mileage anxiety.

Third, perceptual design, from appearance to interior decoration, the ideal user perception to achieve a very high level.

The fourth is the ratio of performance to price, popularly speaking, it is as big as I am, not as cheap as me, the same price as me, not as big as my space.

Many products in Xiaomi ecology have also created similar advantages mentioned above, including mobile phones, televisions, notebook computers, smart home products, etc., through fine cost control and efficient supply chain management, to provide consumers with products with reasonable prices and good performance, but what Lao Li wants to say is that cars are different from other products, and the product technology is more difficult. Xiaomi cars should achieve the above advantages. It's not an easy thing.

In the eyes of outsiders, Lao Li is also an entrepreneur with a "golden key". According to Lao Li's experience, in any industry, it is often the factors other than the "golden key" that determine the success of starting a business, and Xiaomi car is no exception.

The unknown determines the future we go back to the original question, how big the prospect of Xiaomi car can be, this is a qualitative question, to put it another way, how many years of sales Xiaomi car can reach and what role can it play in the market? Lao Li tries his best to give you a quantitative answer.

With Xiaomi's current product information and "golden key", Lao Li believes that it is not difficult to reach the second echelon of 100,000 sales in the previous two years. In this process, the most important factor determining Xiaomi's sales is the product, which includes the four important factors mentioned by Lao Li above.

According to the information obtained by Lao Li, Xiaomi's performance in product positioning and design can fully pass, but in Lao Li's view, it is absolutely not amazing, so the only decisive factor of the four factors is pricing.

Frankly speaking, the impression of Xiaomi brand has always been performance-to-price ratio, which does not mean that the price is low. The average unit price of an ideal car is more than 300000, and the absolute number is not low, but the performance-to-price ratio is very high. A small electric car of an independent brand is priced at more than 100,000 yuan. The absolute number is not high, but the performance-to-price ratio is very low. Under the premise that other aspects are not very good, the pricing of the first three models of Xiaomi is likely to determine the trend of Xiaomi in the next three years.

When the sales volume exceeds 200000 or even 300000, the key factors that determine the development trend of the enterprise have changed from products to system capabilities, which include all aspects of "research, production, supply and marketing services", as well as organizational capabilities, and so on.

In the above links, sales and service are the "golden keys" of Xiaomi cars. After three years of construction, the R & D system already has a good capability. In fact, like the problems encountered by many new forces at present, the shortcomings of Xiaomi cars are in two links: production and supply.

Many friends asked why Tesla did not encounter these problems as a new force in car building. This is an illusion. Tesla also faced capacity problems before the establishment of the Shanghai super factory, but Tesla's efficient capacity construction almost seamlessly linked up with market orders.

At present, most of the new forces do not have the capacity to deliver 500000 vehicles a year. Xiaomi Motors will also face these problems in the future, whether to acquire fuel vehicle capacity or self-built production capacity, which are all problems in the next stage of Xiaomi Automobile.

In addition, from the perspective of the supply chain, the surge in delivery volume also poses great challenges to upstream battery and other core component suppliers, although the current battery capacity is "excess", but the "surplus" does not mean that it can be delivered on time. Only by solving the problems of production capacity and supply, will it be possible for Xiaomi to break through the 300,000 mark, break through the 500000 mark, and move to a new level. The current ideal car is at this stage.

For Xiaomi, these are unknown, but it is also these unknowns that determine how far Xiaomi can go, which is a topic left to the top.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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