Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, September 27, according to a personal official account post by Cui Dongshu, the passenger association, it summarized the car market situation this month, believing that retail consumption in the national passenger car market was strong in September 2023, and the wholesale trend of national passenger car manufacturers was better.

Retail consumption in the national passenger car market was strong in September 2023. From September 1 to 24, national passenger car manufacturers wholesale 1.461 million vehicles, an increase of 17 percent over the same period last year and 19 percent over the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 16.828 million vehicles have been wholesale, an increase of 7 percent over the same period last year.

Retail sales in the market from September 1 to 24 were 1.256 million, up 13 per cent from last year and 6 per cent over the same period last month. Retail sales so far this year totaled 14.468 million, up 3 per cent from last year.

From September 1 to 24, the national passenger car manufacturer new energy wholesale 595000, an increase of 40% over the same period last year, an increase of 17% over the same period last month; this year, a total of 5.675 million wholesale vehicles, an increase of 39% over the same period last year.

Retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market from September 1 to 24 were 508000, up 33 per cent from last year and 11 per cent over the same period last month. Retail sales so far this year totaled 4.951 million, up 36 per cent from last year.

▲ Tu Yuan Cui Dongshu official account in the first week of September, the national passenger car market retailed an average of 44000 units a day, an increase of 14 percent over September last year and basically unchanged from the same period last month.

In the second week of September, retail sales in the national passenger car market averaged 52000 units a day, up 6 per cent from September last year and 3 per cent from the same period last month.

In the third week of September, the national passenger car market sold an average of 64000 units a day, an increase of 18 percent over September last year and 16 percent over the same period last month.

Retail sales in the market from September 1 to 24 were 1.256 million, up 13 per cent from last year and 6 per cent over the same period last month. Retail sales so far this year totaled 14.468 million, up 3 per cent from last year.

CTOnews.com found that Cui Dongshu said that "although the recent real estate stimulus policy is strong, many car owners are worried that the impact on the car market will appear again. But the overall car market in early September is still good", basically flat from August, although poor, but not too much pressure.

As September 10 last year is the Mid-Autumn Festival, this year's festival is wrong, so the first week of September this year has a low base of positive factors, the overall year-on-year trend is OK. In September, typhoons and continuous torrential rain in coastal cities had a great impact on the flow of inbound customers.

The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" effect should appear. The ultra-long National Day and the hot situation of large tourist attractions in the past, including the relatively cool golden autumn climate across the country, will promote surrounding tours and self-driving tours to become mobile car demand.

Cui Dongshu also said that in September, various localities have also launched a new round of local short-term subsidies, which is expected to provide stable support for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten". In order to reverse the passive trend, some automobile enterprises take the initiative to adjust the product price system and marketing strategy, and continue to reflect the pulling effect on consumption. With the continuous consumption policies around the country, various kinds of auto shows and other offline activities are carried out vigorously. New energy activities in the countryside have become a good carrier for exhibition and purchase of cars, and the effect of stimulating consumption is stable.

The wholesale trend of national passenger car manufacturers is good in September 2023.

▲ source Cui Dongshu official account wholesale daily average of 46000 units in the first week of September, an increase of 9% over September last year and 13% over the same period last month.

The daily average of wholesale in the second week of September was 67000, an increase of 22% over September last year and 26% over the same period last month.

The daily average of wholesale in the third week of September was 76000, an increase of 19 per cent over September last year and 20 per cent over the same period last month.

From September 1 to 24, national passenger car manufacturers wholesale 1.461 million vehicles, an increase of 17% over the same period last year and 19% over the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 16.828 million vehicles have been wholesale, up 7% from the same period last year.

The retail data of the Federation of passengers from June to August performed very well, especially the positive growth in August compared with the same month last month, so the sales confidence of dealers gradually recovered, and the production and sales of manufacturers were relatively smooth. Due to the gradual stabilization of the fuel vehicle market, the fuel vehicle market in the third quarter is obviously better than that in the second quarter, so the stability of the fuel vehicle sales system has improved.

Recently, the state has proposed to stabilize the consumption of fuel vehicles, which is a good policy in line with the needs of the people and the voice of the industry, which is also reflected in the car market this week. Fuel vehicles are people's livelihood models, which are very important to ordinary people. with the gradual recovery of economic stability, people buying fuel vehicles is conducive to the recovery of the middle and low-end car market.

Recently, the probability of success of the new models launched by various manufacturers has also increased as the overall market sales rebounded, the incremental effect of new products in the car market is relatively strong, and the product supply side will play a positive role in sales. Terminal discounts have continued to increase in recent months, contributing to unconventional seasonal gains in sales. It is expected that the wholesale sales of manufacturers in September will be better.

China's automobile imports fell by 75000 in August 2023.

487000 imported cars were imported from January to August in 2023, down 19% from the same period last year. Car imports in August were 74700, down 1 per cent from the same period last year. Recently, car imports have gradually picked up, reaching a new high for this year in August. Although the domestic luxury car market is generally good, China's imported car imports have continued to decline at an average annual rate of about 10 per cent from 1.24 million in 2017 to only 885000 in 2022.

Demand in the domestic high-end market is good from January to August in 2023, but the import of passenger cars is only 480000, down 20% from the same period last year and still down from the low point of the past decade. Imports of imported cars fell sharply from January to May this year than expected, while imports rebounded from June to August. Under the environment of continuous improvement of the supply chain, the import of Japanese ordinary hybrid passenger vehicles has gradually recovered.

The core driving force of the growth of the import market is still the consumption upgrading of passenger cars, so compared with ordinary fuel vehicles, the overall trend of luxury cars and imported vehicles is very good, but the electrified transformation has changed the demand for fuel vehicles, and the demand for imported fuel vehicles has also declined significantly. With the increasing complexity of international relations, it is still necessary to plan in advance to establish more import models and maintain the reasonable scale of imported cars.

In August 2023, China exported 440000 cars, an increase of 39%. Since 2021, with the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in the world, the advantage of strong resilience of China's automobile industry chain has been fully reflected. China's automobile export market has shown strong growth in the past three years. Sales in the export market in 2021 were 2.19 million units, an increase of 102% over the same period last year.

The auto export market sold 3.4 million units in 2022, an increase of 55 per cent over the same period last year. In August 2023, China exported 436000 cars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39%. From January to August 2023, China exported 3.22 million cars, with an export growth rate of 65%. The average price of automobile exports in 2023 was 20000 US dollars, which was significantly higher than that of 18000 US dollars in 2022.

From 2021 to the beginning of 2022, with the improvement of the performance-to-price ratio of Chinese cars and the export of wholly-owned automobile enterprises, Chinese automobiles exported to European developed countries made great breakthroughs. New energy vehicles are the core growth point of China's automobile exports, which has changed the passive situation of relying on some poor countries and non-standard countries such as Asia and Africa. The export of new energy vehicles reached 224000 in 2020, with a good performance.

In 2021, 590000 new energy vehicles were exported, which continued to strengthen; in 2022, a total of 1.12 million new energy vehicles were exported; and from January to August 2023, China exported 1.08 million new energy passenger vehicles, a strong growth rate of 82 percent. In August, the export of new energy vehicles was 144000, an increase of 23 percent over the same period last year, of which 1.0443 million new energy passenger vehicles were exported in 2023, an increase of 90 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 96 percent of new energy vehicle exports.

In the early stage, China's exports to Chile in the Americas were relatively strong. China exported 160000 cars to Russia in 2022 and 544000 cars to Russia from January to August 2023, an increase of 664 percent over the same period last year. China exported 80,000 vehicles to Russia in August, up 1340% from a year earlier and down 15% from July. Among them, the surge in exports such as heavy trucks and tractors has made a great contribution to Russia. China's exports to Central Asian countries showed strong growth again, and Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have become new growth points of China's automobile exports.

If Chinese new energy car owners export to Western European and Southeast Asian markets, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia and the United Kingdom in Western and Southern Europe have become export bright spots in the past two years, while exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand have strengthened this year. Independent brands of SAIC passenger cars, BYD and other new energy models strong performance. Exports of new energy vehicles to Europe slowed temporarily in August and should pick up after that.

The inventory of 3.48 million units and 53 days in the national passenger car market at the end of August is the earliest in this century because of the Spring Festival this year. Under the influence of comprehensive factors such as wait-and-see and promotion war brought by the expected stimulus policy, the retail trend gradually strengthened from March to June. The national passenger car retail is relatively hot from July to August, resulting in a slight increase in the national passenger car inventory to 3.48 million units at the end of August, including 750000 units from manufacturers and 2.73 million units from channels.

At the end of August, factory inventories accounted for 21.6% of inventory, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over August last year and a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Due to the continued high retail expectations in September-November, the current inventory of 3.48 million units at the end of August to support future sales is 53 days, which is relatively reasonable.

The passenger car August forecast index PFI is 58%, and the satisfaction index PSI is 69%. It has strong confidence and good effect. The passenger car September forecast index PFI is 63%. Market confidence is stronger in September than in August.

The federation evaluates the monthly market performance according to the way the PMI index is set and the evaluation results. According to the forecast summary of the internal personnel of the manufacturer, the trend feeling evaluation is generally better than expected.

Judging from the current inventory level of 3.48 million units and the expected steady market fluctuations in September-November, the inventory digestion pressure in the industry has improved. In view of the current situation that the price promotion war is stabilizing, automobile enterprises need to track the policy environment and market changes in time, carefully set the pace of production and marketing, and timely and reasonably adjust production and marketing in autumn and winter according to the inventory structure of dealers, to prevent the risk of sluggish peak season after the off-season.

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