Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, September 26, according to the analysis of Cui Dongshu's official account, the new energy vehicles and energy storage industry are highly prosperous in the past two years, the demand for batteries has increased rapidly, and the proportion of new energy vehicle batteries has declined.

Due to the high price of nickel and cobalt, there is a differential growth between ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery. Lithium iron phosphate batteries reached a total of 68%, which has become a hot spot of growth in the near future. As the policy-driven mix continues to be strong and the pure electric trend is weak, the demand for battery loading of electric vehicles has increased to a certain extent, but in the long run, it is expected to continue to be slower than the total vehicle growth.

1. The loading proportion of power batteries continues to decline.

Cui Dongshu, the official account of ▲ Tu Yuan Cui Dongshu, believes that the proportion of power batteries loaded in cars is constantly decreasing, and the battery installation rate of power batteries installed in 2020 is 76%. In 2021, it is 70%. In 2022, it is 54%. In 2023, it is 51%. Among them, the loading proportion of ternary batteries has also gradually decreased, from 80% to 49% in 2023, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has dropped from 71% to 54%. Both are overproduction and relatively high inventory performance pressure.

With the development of energy storage and other industries, especially the current world energy crisis, the demand for batteries in energy storage and other industries is growing rapidly, resulting in a significant decline in the proportion of batteries loaded in vehicles.

The growth rate of power battery in 2021 and 2022 is lower than that of the whole vehicle, and the growth rate of power battery this year is basically the same as that of the whole vehicle.

2. The proportion of three yuan in the domestic model certificate of battery loading has dropped sharply.

Cui Dongshu, the official account of Cui Dongshu, the source of ▲ pictures, said that the demand for power battery loading is fluctuating. Demand growth of 10% in 2019, sales of power battery 64GWh in 2020, demand growth of 2% in power battery loading 155GWh in 2021, demand growth of 143% in power battery loading 295GWh in 2022, demand growth of 91% in January-August 2023 219GWh demand increased by 35%.

Among them, ternary batteries increased by 21% in 2019, 7% in 2020, 91% in 2021, 49% in 2022, and 5% from January to August in 2023. The growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries is relatively large, with a growth of 20% in 2020, 227% in 2021, 130% in 2022, 56% in January-August 2023.

The number of cars loaded with power batteries in 2022 was 295GWh, an increase of 91% over the same period last year. Among them, the number of vehicles loaded with ternary batteries 110GWh increased by 49% compared with the same period last year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded 184GWh, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.

The number of cars loaded with power batteries from January to August 2023 was 219GWh, an increase of 35% over the same period last year. Of this total, the number of vehicles loaded with ternary batteries 69GWh increased by 5% compared with the same period last year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded 150GWh, up 56 per cent year-on-year.

3. The demand for automotive batteries continues to grow strongly.

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu official car battery demand growth continues to be strong, the battery demand of pure electric passenger vehicles increased by 28% in 2023, while the battery demand of mixed passenger cars increased by 121%, continued strong growth. The demand for batteries on buses is relatively low. The battery demand of special purpose vehicles is also growing rapidly.

▲ source Cui Dongshu official account from the proportion of battery loading, the demand structure of power battery is changing rapidly in recent years. In 2020, the pure electric car is the first, the pure electric bus is the second, and the pure electric special vehicle is the third, while the plug-in hybrid passenger car is only the fourth. This year, pure electric passenger cars remain in the first place, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars rise to the second place, pure electric special-purpose vehicles rise to the third place, and pure electric buses fall to the fourth place.

In recent years, the pure electric bus market has declined sharply, while the plug-in passenger car has shown a rapidly rising trend, and the pure electric special purpose vehicle has maintained a relatively stable battery consumption of about 7%.

At present, pure electric buses have dropped from 18% to the cumulative level of 1% in 2023, down 17 percentage points. The battery consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger cars has increased relatively rapidly, rising from 7% to 16%, an increase of 9%, while pure electric power has increased by 8%, forming the absolute core battery demand characteristics of new passenger cars, which account for more than 92%.

4. Output of automobile certificate

▲ Tu Yuan Cui Dongshu official account estimates that the output of qualified products in August 2023 is 744000 units, an increase of 20% over the same period last year, of which pure electric passenger cars and plug-in passenger cars increased by 6% and 60% respectively. Pure electric special-purpose vehicles increased by only 18% year-on-year, which seems to be a low figure.

5. The demand for passenger car battery continues to grow strongly.

The installed batteries of ▲ official Cui Dongshu passenger cars sold at home and abroad were 3182 million in August and 20227 in January-August, showing a strong growth rate of 53%.

▲ Tu Yuan Cui Dongshu official account shows a strong trend according to the passenger car sales corresponding to the passenger car demand. Considering the battery demand of 2325 million degrees in the same period in August, the current August sales demand of 3182 million degrees is already very high, reaching an all-time high in August.

▲ Touyuan Cui Dongshu official account from the perspective of vehicle enterprises, BYD and Tesla accounted for 43% of battery demand in 2023, due to BYD's obvious advantages in battery manufacturing, BYD is still growing strongly.

Both Tesla and BYD of the ▲ official account Cui Dongshu have higher batteries.

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu official account mixed model of BYD scale advantage is obvious.

The ideal performance of the official account of Cui Dongshu, the source of ▲ image, is strong.

6. the supporting battery enterprises are far from full competition.

▲ source Cui Dongshu official account in the past few years, the competitive pattern of the battery market has not changed significantly. As the technological progress of the power battery market is relatively slow, and the characteristics of scale growth are relatively obvious, battery enterprises have obtained the characteristics of strong production and loading growth.

There is no obvious change in the pattern of the original battery, depending on who invests more, and then who can get a larger market share, so the expansion performance of the main battery enterprises continues to be strong; and small and medium-sized battery enterprises also have opportunities to achieve certain growth by technological or other breakthroughs. Therefore, the battery pattern in the rapid growth should be said to be relatively stable.

However, there is a relatively large opportunity for changes in the battery industry in the future. in the future, the trend of the whole vehicle enterprises to build the battery or the related enterprises to build the battery is becoming increasingly obvious, and the battery enterprises will gradually form the core supporting products of the whole vehicle.

▲ Tuyuan Cui Dongshu official account at present, the demand for high-end electric vehicles is not very strong, but similar to the upgrading of "Old Man Le" to small mini cars, and there is a greater demand for middle and low-end families, especially due to the impact of the epidemic, the market demand for A0-class cars and A00-class cars is increasing.

In terms of the supply chain, the whole vehicle enterprises will become more and more powerful in the future, and the ability to control the battery enterprises and the upstream industry chain will be further strengthened. at the same time, the control of the downstream brand marketing ability will be further strengthened. Under the new energy system, the characteristic of "the whole vehicle is the king" will continue to be reflected.

7. Lithium iron phosphate batteries need to be upgraded.

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu pure electric vehicle currently the main battery energy density range between 125and 160. In particular, the outstanding performance in 2023 was that 140 to 160 batteries accounted for 36%, down 2 percentage points from the same period last year.

Models with battery energy density of more than 160 accounted for 19%, down from 31% in 2020. This is mainly due to the decrease of energy density caused by ternary substitution of lithium iron phosphate battery. Products with energy densities below 125 also showed a slight decline, from 14% in 2020 to 8% at present.

8. Battery enterprise pattern

▲ source Cui Dongshu official account battery enterprises' competitive pattern forms the relatively strong characteristics of Ningde era and BYD. At present, the gap between Ningde era and BYD is narrowing, with BYD's share rising from 15% in 2020 to 29%, an increase of 14 percentage points, while that of Ningde era has dropped by about 6 percentage points. the share of other battery companies has also declined significantly.

In addition, battery companies have formed the increasingly prominent characteristics of the aggregation effect of head enterprises, from which CTOnews.com found that the proportion of Ningde era and BYD rose to 72 per cent from 65 per cent of the first two companies in 2020, while other companies currently have only 28 per cent of space.

▲ figure source Cui Dongshu official account lithium iron phosphate battery product difference advantage, BYD outshines others, Ningde era of iron lithium battery share has been surpassed by BYD since the beginning of this year. The improvement of Yiwei Lithium Energy, China New Airlines and Zhengli New Energy is obvious.

▲ picture source Cui Dongshu official account due to BYD's comprehensive transformation of lithium iron phosphate battery, so the advantage of ternary battery in Ningde era is more obvious.

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