Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com Sept. 26, Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingyi recently released another market research briefing, believing that the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max models launched by Apple next year will use the quadruple reflection prism lens on the iPhone 15 Pro Max.

In his analysis briefing, Guo Mingyi analyzed the supply chain of the iPhone 15 Pro Max, referring to the price rise due to Apple's increased verification requirements for telephoto lenses and higher market demand.

As specifications improve and demand increases, the cost of the component will rise by about 30% to $6 to $6.50 per unit.

Mr Guo predicts that shipments of iPhone with four-prism cameras will grow by about 110 per cent in 2024, equivalent to 70 million to 80 million units.

High demand should mean that current lens suppliers Dali Optoelectronics, Crystal Optoelectronics and Lentoptics will be the main beneficiaries of Apple's four-prism promotion in 2024.

CTOnews.com hereby encloses the original report as follows:

Conclusion the strong shipping kinetic energy of Liguang, Crystal Optoelectronics and Blue Optics is expected to be maintained until the end of the year (vs. General Apple supply chain shipments peak in October), due to the urgent increase in the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens verification standard before Apple shipment and the better-than-expected demand after launch.

In Dali's 2H23 revenue (mainly 4Q23), the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens contributed about NT $65 to NT $7 billion due to the price increase, significantly higher than the NT $15 to 2 billion in 14 Pro Max last year.

Crystal Optoelectronics (I) and Landoptics (II) benefit from the significant growth in orders from Dali Optics, so capacity utilization is expected to be fully loaded by the end of the year and both will continue to expand production by at least 50% in 2024.

LGIT's current module yield problem is detrimental to near-term profits, but it may be a sole or major supplier of iPhone 16 Pro quadruple reflection telephoto modules next year due to improved technical capabilities.

This change may not be convenient for Jade Jingguang (lens) and Gao Wei Electronics (module) to win next year's iPhone 16 Pro series quadruple reflection telephoto order, the key lies in the improvement of lens verification standards and module assembly difficulties than expected, we need to closely observe the verification results of the two suppliers before April next year.

Industrial background iPhone 16 Pro Max demand is higher than expected, and the key selling point is the telephoto camera equipped with quadruple reflection camera technology.

In order to improve the module yield, Apple urgently increases the lens specification, hoping to compensate the module assembly tolerance through more accurate lens assembly (1G3P lens + lens assembly).

Due to the urgent increase in lens specifications and production requirements of Apple, the unit price of iPhone 16 Pro Max telephoto lens has been increased by about 30% to US$6-6.50 (US dollars).

Both the iPhone 16 Pro Max and the iPhone 16 Pro are expected to be equipped with quadruple reflection telephoto cameras and are likely to maintain current high specification standards to ensure camera efficiency and production yield. I predict that iPhone shipments with quadruple reflection telephoto cameras will grow by about 110% YoY to 7000-80 million units in 2024.

Revenue and profit of 4Q23 are expected to beat market expectations, and will continue to benefit significantly in 2024.

Daliguang is the exclusive supplier of iPhone 14-15 Pro Max telephoto lenses. The iPhone 14 Pro Max shipped about 30 million 2H22 telephoto lenses at a unit price of US$1.5-2. IPhone 15 Pro Max shipped about 35 million 2H23 telephoto lenses, and the unit price increased by about 30% to US$6-6.5 due to improved specifications.

Therefore, with the Pro Max telephoto lens alone, the revenue of 2H23 has increased by NT$50-5.5 billion yuan than that of 2H22 (mainly concentrated in 4Q23). Assuming that other revenues of Dali Light have not changed much, it is expected that 4Q23 revenue will have significant YoY growth, beating market expectations.

IPhone 15 Pro Max is the most important revenue and profit driver for Apple 4Q23, so Apple agreed to significantly increase the unit price of telephoto lens by 30% in exchange for and ensure the support of Liguang.

Crystal Optoelectronics and Blue Optical capacity utilization will be fully loaded by the end of the year, and 2024 will be greatly expanded before Apple improves the specification of iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lenses. Crystal Optoelectronics is almost an exclusive supplier, and the average monthly 2H23 capacity utilization of Crystal Optoelectronics is more than 70%. After improving the lens specifications, due to the significant increase in demand for crystal optoelectronic capacity utilization even at full load can not meet the order demand, so Landoptics orders also increased significantly.

Crystal Optoelectronics is the number one supplier, with a supply proportion of about 70-80%.

In response to the strong demand of Apple in 2024, both Crystal Optoelectronics and Landoptics are expected to increase production by at least 50% in 2024. The proportion of supply still maintains crystal optoelectronics and blue optics about 70-80% and 20-30% respectively.

Order / growth trend Analysis of key suppliers due to the high visibility of orders, Liliang, Crystal Optoelectronics and Blue Optics are still the biggest beneficiaries of Apple's active promotion of quadruple reflection technology in 2024.

If the Android brand begins to follow Apple and actively promote periscope cameras, the potential beneficiaries will be Dali Light and Crystal Optoelectronics.

The recent profit of LGIT has some hidden worries due to the module yield issue, but it should be significantly improved before iPhone 16 Pro mass production.

Take a neutral view of Jahwa because there is almost no change in VCM shipments and unit prices.

Due to the improved specification of the quadruple reflection telephoto lens and the higher-than-expected assembly difficulty of the module, Jade Jingguang (lens) and Gao Wei Electronics (module) have become new suppliers in 2024 and need to closely monitor the verification results of these two suppliers before April next year. From the standpoint of Apple, we should hope that Yujingguang and Gao Wei Electronics can become new suppliers, but the technology gap between suppliers can sometimes not be made up by Apple support in the short term, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected results of BOE's shipments of iPhone panels this year.

Related readings:

Guo Mingyi: Apple's iPhone 15 Pro Max's 5x optical zoom lens will be extended to the iPhone 16 Pro.

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