Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Recently, with the completion of the data disclosure of the China Daily, the major securities firms have been singing more about the computer industry based on the basic positive trend of the industry. In particular, driven by the popularity of the AI and computing markets, securities firms are unanimously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the computer industry.

Fundamentals are good, securities firms sing more about the computer industry

According to the research report of Galaxy Securities on September 17, in the first half of this year, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, the demand of the computer industry declined, the industry faced the pressure of destocking, the overall performance was under pressure, but the profit margin improved.

From the valuation of the computer industry, according to Galaxy Securities, by the end of August this year, the overall valuation level of the computer industry (PE,TTM, excluding negative values) is 45.8 times, lower than the average level of the industry in the past decade. In the first half of the year, driven by the wave of artificial intelligence, the valuation repair, the industry increased significantly, and recently adjusted. Galaxy Securities believes that in the second half of this year, the computer industry will gradually divide, and the subdivided tracks with broad market space, such as computing power, data elements and AI + applications, are worth paying attention to.

According to the recent research report of Southwest Securities, from the performance level, the income and profit have obviously moved upward, showing a stable recovery trend as a whole. In terms of valuation, the computer index PE has reached a median level of 50 times over the past decade. After a sharp correction in recent months, the current computer PE is lower than the median in the past decade and has some configuration value.

Southwest Securities believes that the current AI products are being iterated and optimized continuously, and the follow-up of computing orders is expected to continue to transform. At the same time, policies related to data elements are issued frequently, and the main lines such as AI, computing power and data elements have the characteristics of "long track, big space". The follow-up is expected to lead the computer industry to achieve fundamentals reversal under the triple resonance of "policy guidance, industrial cooperation and technological progress", and performance elasticity is expected to be released quarter by quarter.

Guoxin Securities Research report said that under the macroeconomic uncertainty, the overall performance of the computer industry in the first half of the year was basically the same as the same period last year, and the prosperity of the industry will pick up in the second half of the year under the general trend of economic recovery. At the same time, with the iteration of large models, AI popular style applications are expected to appear in the second half of this year, focusing on AI application manufacturers.

China Merchants Securities Research report pointed out that reviewing the half-year performance of the computer industry in 2023, we can see that the overall revenue and median profits of the industry have improved compared with the same period last year. According to the judgment of China Merchants Securities, the performance of the computer industry has reached the bottom, and in the future, driven by the technological change of AIGC and the policy prosperity of data elements, the fundamentals of the computer sector are about to reverse and maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry.

On the whole, the investment institutions represented by securities companies generally believe that after the downturn in the first half of the year, the computer industry will improve its performance fundamentals driven by AI technology, computing power, and data elements. This industry trend is also a reflection of the development status of related individual stocks. For Lenovo Group, as the largest provider of personal computing equipment, its current performance is at an inflection point, and its long-term investment value is widely recognized by institutions driven by AI and computing power. For example, the recent international rating agency S & P has upgraded its investment rating based on Lenovo Group's operational resilience and long-term growth during the market downturn and looks forward to stability.

Focus on AI and arithmetic, Lenovo greets the opportunity with "Puhui"

It is not difficult to see that the optimistic expectations of research institutions on the computer industry are mainly driven by AI-related industrial chains, and are especially optimistic about the opportunities under the "long track, big space".

At the World Computing Conference held a few days ago, Zhao Zhiguo, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that China has formed a computing industry with a relatively complete system, large scale and active innovation. The scale of the computing industry reached 2.6 trillion yuan in 2022, and more than 20.91 million general-purpose servers and 820000 AI servers were shipped in the past six years, ranking second in the world in terms of total computing power.

According to the Galaxy Securities Research report, with the wave of artificial intelligence, the training of general large models, industry applications based on general large models and reasoning all need a lot of intelligent computing power to support. The demand for AI chips, AI servers, and cloud computing power will continue to rise. According to IDC's forecast, the scale of intelligent computing power is expected to reach 1271.4 EFLOPS by 2026, and the CAGR of intelligent computing power in China is expected to reach 52.3%. Under the demand-side stimulus, related industries such as computing power and AI + applications are expected to benefit.

Hongta Securities believes that the market for general artificial intelligence AGI has formed a strong consensus, the industry generally believes that it as a subversive technology determines the ownership of the next generation of data ports, the big model is the current mainstream technology path, the major Internet manufacturers, ICT enterprises on the computing side of the investment, because once missed the industrial revolution brought about by AI means that the probability will be eliminated. Therefore, compared with the uncertainty of the competition pattern in the application market, the related industries are bound to maintain rapid growth in recent years.

The research report of Oriental Securities on September 17 pointed out that the recent landing of the big model continues to accelerate, the demand for the upgrading of computing power brought about by the AI model, the data center industry chain will continue to benefit, and the user experience of AI applications will also continue to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment targets such as Lenovo Group.

Lenovo Group, as the leading ICT enterprise in the world, with the support of the new IT technology of "end-side-cloud-network-intelligence", on the one hand, actively embraces AI and creates a comprehensive AI-oriented infrastructure, such as actively promoting the transformation of PC to AI PC, launching AI servers, and widely using AI technologies such as generative AI customer service in SSG solution service business.

On the other hand, Lenovo Group is deeply engaged in computing power and relies on computing products and services such as servers, edge computing, cloud computing, advanced computing services, high-performance computing products and Lenovo Intelligent Computing Center solutions. to become the world's most complete computing infrastructure and service provider. Based on this advantage, Lenovo Group is also committed to providing "Puhui" computing products and services to all kinds of computing customers.

In order to accelerate the deployment of AI technology and applications globally, Lenovo also announced in the first half of this year that it will invest about 7 billion yuan in the deployment of AI in the next three years, in order to further expand Lenovo's industry-leading portfolio of AI-ready-oriented smart devices, infrastructure solutions and services, and accelerate the further landing of generative AI applications in finance, manufacturing, retail and other industries.

On the whole, the technological change led by AI is reshaping the development pattern of the computer industry and giving birth to promising incremental market opportunities. Lenovo Group is relying on profound technology accumulation and continuous innovation of R & D capabilities, with highly competitive AI products and services, laid a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Welcome to subscribe "Shulou Technology Information " to get latest news, interesting things and hot topics in the IT industry, and controls the hottest and latest Internet news, technology news and IT industry trends.