Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

/ tr. by Jiang Xiaohua

A few days ago, Brother Pang wrote a short article in which he mentioned a point of view, that is, the recognition of extended range and interruption is an important rectification of China's new energy vehicle policy towards maturity. As a result, he was criticized by a villager in the comment area, saying that pure electricity is the future, and suggested that acw replace the unprofessional editor of Pangge.

All right, let me just make my point a little bit more today. I don't care if pure electricity is the future, but in the next three years, pure electricity will be the most embarrassing market for cars, and the bigger the battery, the more awkward it is.

If you are a villager working in the main machine factory, you should empathize with this view even if you don't know it. In the past few years, when Pangge met every person in charge of the new brand of pure electricity, he would ask him, "shall we extend the journey or cut in?" Nine times out of ten, the answer is "definitely not" standing in the throat with a high degree of arrogance in the industry and the future.

After the development over the past few years, everyone has seen that the original uniform "affirmation" is not so sure. Half of the enterprises have quietly come back to do the extended journey; the reason for the rest of the undone is certainly not that they don't want to.

Either there is no reserve at all, or the part of the group is too good to cross the line, or it is still clinging to the remnants of the decade when pure electricity financing is more logical. By the way, some enterprises that obviously started the extended range hybrid very early are now desperately trying to produce pure electricity, but can not do the extended range, which really makes the fat brother messy.

Although the small composition of New Energy has been flying all over the sky for three or five years, since last year, pure electricity has fallen into stagflation if it is counted independently, especially this year. If there are still a few bright spots in the pure electricity market this year, it is the big German-based companies that have been scolded by consumers in their hometown with huge discounts.

Of course, it was also sustained by the all-category price reduction that Tesla dragged down from January to August. Recently, everyone has also reduced a wave. Looking at the frequent drop of 30,000 to 50,000 yuan, I feel pain when I think about their profit margin. Weilai also put down its high-end posture and began to sell cars at reduced prices. However, Weilai price reduction still has advantages, after all, the original user philosophy can be cut costs are indeed relatively thick.

But even so, the embarrassment of pure electricity can not be hidden, and the marginal effect of price reduction of most brands will be very low. Why?

First, pure electricity has no advantage from the point of view of users. I have always believed that intelligence is an industrial upgrade based on market demand; pure electricity has never been. There is little reason to think that pure electricity is better than pure oil. Compared with the products that combine the advantages of oil and electricity, they are obviously inferior. Not to mention drive and safety, even if it is smart, there are no barriers to pure electric compared to other models.

Maybe you would say that energy prices will be much lower. Yes, this is probably the only plausible advantage of pure electricity. But it doesn't stand up to detailed calculations. Moreover, the car replenishment can be kept at a low price all the time; after the oil and grid benefits are distributed to a certain extent, the electric vehicle replenishment will definitely not be the current price. The energy cost is estimated to be about 70% of the fuel cost. If you don't believe it, you're welcome to bet.

To put it bluntly, if the price of supplementary energy reaches 70% or 80% of that of fuel vehicles, it means that pure electricity is a foregone conclusion.

Second, the design of the domestic pure electricity market is fundamentally wrong. Pure electricity should focus on subsidizing low-cost models and replacing market share of less than 150000, rather than piling up at more than 200000.

For one thing, China's big goal of promoting new energy is of course to strengthen energy independence, but the industrial goal is to take advantage of China's new energy industries such as batteries to help Chinese car brands overtake around the corner.

Well, first, it is necessary to maximize the expansion of battery and energy storage companies-- not just to expand the scale of the Ningde era, but now Ningde's dominance is the obvious failure of the industrial route. It should also be carried out under the big logic of autonomous control of resources. No matter which angle it is, it is more efficient to push low-cost electric cars and to extend range and mix them than to push high-priced electric cars.

Second, to the maximum extent to help Chinese enterprises get rid of pure electricity subsidies as soon as possible to achieve large-scale profits. The mainframe factory is not profitable, and the supply chain is hugely profitable. In fact, low interest is good, Chinese brands can not get rid of the current situation of selling cars at low interest rates for a long time. It is conceivable that the pure electricity market, which is mainly based on lithium iron phosphate and terminal life, is easier to achieve this goal.

Second, with the existence of Tesla, as long as you do not sanction it on the grounds of national security, in fact, no enterprise in the electric car market of more than 150000 can compete with it in the short term under the condition that the gross profit is basically the same. It is not a simple logic of the scale of production and marketing, but the core is the huge gap in cost level. No one can bear the long-term lack of profit or even loss in the volatile capital markets.

Of course, it is not that if you are afraid of Tesla, Tesla's innovation will not have no boundaries, and the cost will eventually approach the industry. However, the ability to pull up the cost is the basic condition for the automobile industry to compete. This is reality.

Third, for a market of 200,000, 300,000 or more, in the long run, the advantage of independence is not obvious. BBA, Volkswagen Liangda and Hyundai Kia are not bad. At best, they are not ready, and the prepared Hyundai Kia is not willing to go shopping at a loss now. Yang Honghai, an Internet celebrity executive, said that we will deal with you when you finish fighting. That's the truth. After all, people don't have much ambition for arbitrage in the capital market, and they need to make money by selling cars.

Yes, big manufacturers were dazzled by Chinese car companies at this year's Shanghai Auto Show, and some enterprises also made clear adjustments to the Chinese market. Please note, however, that it is Tesla, not Chinese companies, that big manufacturers are afraid of. Chinese car companies recognize that it is intelligent applications and rapid upgrading of interior and exterior decoration, rather than pure electricity.

If you really go in the direction of overtaking in the corner of an electric car, the path is below, not above. Li wanted to go in the direction of the car in the first place. Was he wrong? Come on, he's as good as Sun WuKong. We were wrong. The future of Wei Lai can not come just by lowering the price. Alps and even fireflies may not have a future until they stop.

Third, the influence of capital market thinking on China's electric car market is obvious. But what is more obvious is that the capital market does not intend to be lucky for all pure electricity financing projects with both rain and dew.

Almost all vehicle projects financed by pure electricity are not valued according to technology enterprises, and the dying Weima was rated as China's unicorn enterprise many times when rushing for all kinds of IPO, but in the end the corner was broken and did not rush up.

Wei Xiaoli those who go up, although the valuation is on the high side, but the stock price logic is mainly manufacturing logic.

Capital speculation of new energy, it seems that always ready to stir-fry automobile intelligent industrial chain, occasionally willing to stir-fry hydrogen energy. But the whole car, there has never been a block of industry speculation, except for BYD, all the other tickets are fried up, A down the K-line market.

So those big car companies based on capital considerations, based on restructuring considerations, based on those outsiders do not understand the logic of the birth of pure pure electricity projects, regardless of the current 40,000 to 50,000 a month, or one or two thousand, the suggestion is still based on their own advantages, steadfastly return to the rational logic based on the healthy development of the market and enterprises, but it is possible to finally reap the favor of capital.

Today's pure electricity, in addition to Tesla, most enterprises can still get by, nothing more than three reasons.

First, new energy has indeed been forced into the future by policy. The new energy transformation of most car companies is not fake, it is true, and the Japanese enterprises that are most reluctant to change are also really turning. So the potential energy of new energy is not empty. A lot of big enterprises are really made to jump. There is room for chaos, but it is narrowing. The number of people buying pure electricity has not skyrocketed against the backdrop of a surge in the share of new energy.

The public opinion essay also has a lot of support for pure electricity. Some media even regard singing multi-pure electricity as the basic position of the little pink in the industry, as if it is to support Chinese brands.

Second, in the range of 20 to 500000, pure electricity does not really squeeze out the profit margins of brands at the same price. Weilai is staring at the BBA, but you can check the profits of BMW-Benz. The decline in profits is not driven by pure electricity, but the stage of its own development.

On the contrary, Ford, Volkswagen and GM rely on this price range. SAIC GM's bonus is based on GL8 sales. Changan Ford, which has hit rock bottom, relies on thousands of explorers and sharp circles a month, and the results are positive.

Therefore, the big manufacturers at the same price are not willing to compete with you to make a loss. In my opinion, big companies have made enough mistakes in the transition.

In fact, if it is for the sake of bayonets, the fuel truck will return to the "mature" technology and bring the price down; the tram will only have to be high-equipped to withstand the price. Today's oil trucks within 200000 should save themselves in this way.

Third, the subsidy is still there. What can't survive without all kinds of light and shade subsidies in this market is pure electricity.

In my opinion, the Chinese car company with the best development pattern is Chery. The multi-brand layout formed by oil tanker, plug-in and pure electricity is the most healthy and reasonable. Low-cost pure electricity, middle and high-end mixing, maintain the long-term sales pattern of oil vehicles, and the proportion of exports is committed to keeping at about 40%.

Put it here, this is the layout template of Chinese car companies in the new energy transition period, and most enterprises will adjust the industrial layout to this path sooner or later.

Many car companies on the electric brand, the old brand up and down have the meaning of discouragement, feel that they have been marginalized. You don't have to. If the extension and interruption are on your side, you will still be the center of the universe for three years. This is not based on the will of the leader.

In the next three years, the bigger the battery, the more embarrassing the situation. Regardless of pure electricity, extended range batteries are too common to be waxed. On the peak, please don't raise the incentive threshold for pure electric battery life. 120km is enough, but don't set the standard to 250km.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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