Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com August 8 news, the ride federation released July national passenger car market data. Data show that retail sales in China's passenger car market reached 1.775 million in July, down 2.3% from a year earlier and 6.3% from a month earlier.

The HKIFA pointed out that retail sales in July was the second highest in history, with a very strong trend. So far this year, retail sales in the passenger car market have totaled 11.299 million, up 1.9 per cent from the same period last year.

For Tuyuan Pexels new energy vehicles, wholesale sales reached 737000 in July, up 30.7 per cent from a year earlier and down 3.1 per cent from a month earlier. From January to July this year, a total of 4.279 million vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 41.2% over the same period last year.

In addition, retail sales of new energy vehicles in July were 641000, up 31.9 per cent from a year earlier and down 3.6 per cent from a month earlier. Retail sales totaled 3.725 million vehicles so far this year, an increase of 36.3% over the same period last year.

According to the statistics of the Federation, the export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) in July was 310000, an increase of 63 per cent over the same period last year and 4 per cent month-on-month. From January to July, the export of passenger cars was 1.99 million, an increase of 81% over the same period last year.

New energy vehicles accounted for 28% of total exports in July. With the increase in export capacity, exports of independent brands reached 248000 in July, up 56 per cent from the same month last year, while exports of joint ventures and luxury brands were 60,000, up 90 per cent from the same period last year.

In terms of manufacturers' exports in July, Tesla China 32862, BYD 18169, SAIC passenger vehicles 17724, SAIC GM Wuling 6674, Dongfeng Egeter 6119, Great Wall 2391, Geely 2280, Skyworth 974, Chery 285, Dongfeng Yu'an 282, SAIC Chase 171,146Changan Ford and Shenlong 127vehicles.

Original text of CTOnews.com attached ride association:

1. Analysis of the national passenger car market in July 2023

Retail: retail sales in the passenger car market reached 1.775 million in July 2023, down 2.3% from the same period last year and 6.3% from the previous month. Retail sales in July were the second-highest in history, with a strong trend. So far this year, retail sales in the passenger car market have totaled 11.299 million, up 1.9 per cent from the same period last year.

Retail sales in July this year are still the second highest for the year, while July is generally the lowest normal monthly sales after February. July this year is a moderate decline above the June peak, which is still a strong trend.

As the July car market enters the extended implementation period of National sixth B, the rapid rise of promotion prices in the first half of the year has ended, and the July car market has entered a period of slow sales promotion growth, and the overall promotion intensity has declined slightly, which is similar to the price trend in 2019. The pulling effect of sales promotion on the car market is weakened.

At the national level, there are frequent guiding policies for the sales of the automobile industry, aimed at further stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce have promoted new energy vehicles to the countryside, launched the "hundred cities Linkage" Automobile Festival and the "Qianxian Wanzhen" New Energy vehicle consumption season, and have achieved good results in promoting and eliminating rich and colorful activities such as local auto shows and issuing consumption coupons. Manufacturers have a strong sprint at the end of half a year, which has a good effect on boosting consumer confidence.

Under the influence of such comprehensive factors as the early Spring Festival this year, the repeated failure of the expected stimulus policy, the surging promotion war of the old inventory of the sixth National Committee, the half-year extension of the expected six cars in the old country, and the low base last year, retail sales totaled 11.299 million vehicles from January to July, an increase of 1.9 percent over the same period last year, and performed well.

Self-branded retail sales of 940000 vehicles in July, up 15 per cent from a year earlier and 1 per cent month-on-month. In July 2023, the domestic retail share of independent brands was 53.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and the cumulative share of independent brands in 2023 was 50%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points over the same period in 2022. In July, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 58.1%, an increase of 8.3% over the same period last year. Independent brands gained a significant increase in the new energy market and export market, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional car companies in the head were excellent. The brand share of traditional car companies such as BYD Automobile, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile and Chery Automobile has increased significantly.

Retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in July were 590000, down 28% from the same period last year and 11% from the previous month. In July, the retail share of German brands was 20.8%, down 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 15.8%, down 5 percentage points from the same period last year. The retail share of American brands reached 7.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

Luxury car retail sales in July were 240000, down 22 per cent from a year earlier and down 20 per cent from a month earlier. Last year, due to a shortage of chips, the shortage of luxury cars gradually improved. From January to July, luxury car retail sales increased by 11% year-on-year, and the market performance was strong.

Exports: this year's overall automobile exports continue the characteristics of strong growth at the end of last year. According to the statistics of the Federation, the export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) in July was 310000, an increase of 63 per cent over the same period last year and 4 per cent month-on-month. From January to July, the export of passenger cars was 1.99 million, an increase of 81% over the same period last year. New energy vehicles accounted for 28% of total exports in July. With the increase in export capacity, exports of independent brands reached 248000 in July, up 56 per cent from the same month last year, while exports of joint ventures and luxury brands were 60,000, up 90 per cent from the same period last year.

Production: 2.101 million passenger cars were produced in July, down 2.6% from the same month last year and 4.3% from the previous month. Due to the switching of the old inventory of the sixth national emission upgrade, enterprises are extremely cautious in production. Among them, luxury brand production fell 5% from the same period last year, down 4% from the previous year; joint venture brand production dropped 36% from the same period last year, down 16% from the previous year; and independent brand production increased by 24% from the same period last year, up 2% from the previous year.

Wholesale: in July, national passenger car manufacturers wholesale 2.065 million vehicles, down 3.2% from the same period last year and 7.6% from the previous month. A total of 13.132 million vehicles have been wholesale so far this year, an increase of 6.6 per cent over the same period last year. Affected by the promotion of the new energy market, the performance of some automobile companies is obviously divided. In July, independent car companies wholesale 1.19 million vehicles, up 22% from the same period last year, down 1% from the previous month. Mainstream joint venture car companies wholesale 590000 vehicles, down 34% from the same period last year and 17% from the previous month. 280000 luxury cars were wholesale, down 13 per cent from the same period last year and 15 per cent from the previous month.

The overall performance of the main passenger car manufacturers in July is strong. There are 31 passenger car manufacturers with sales of more than 10,000 vehicles (2 fewer than the previous month), of which 7 have a month-on-month growth rate of more than 30% and 4 have a month-on-month growth rate of more than 10%.

Inventory: due to the increase in production in July and the slowdown in retail sales, the channel inventory has increased slightly, resulting in a channel inventory trend that the manufacturer's output is higher than the wholesale 40,000 vehicles, while the domestic wholesale is lower than the retail 20,000 vehicles. Manufacturers and channels continued to stock 500000 vehicles from December last year to July this year, thus reducing the pressure on channel inventory.

New energy: wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 737000 in July, up 30.7% from a year earlier and down 3.1% from a month earlier. From January to July this year, a total of 4.279 million vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 41.2% over the same period last year. Retail sales of new energy vehicles in July were 641000, up 31.9% from a year earlier, down 3.6% from a month earlier. Retail sales totaled 3.725 million vehicles so far this year, an increase of 36.3% over the same period last year.

1) Wholesale: in July, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles was 52%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 28.9%; while the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles was only 5.8%. The wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in July were 496000, up 15.3% from the same period last year, down 6.1% from the previous year; plug-in hybrid sales were 242000, up 80.0% from the same period last year, up 3.8% from the previous month, and new energy vehicles accounted for 33%, an increase of 9 points over the same period. In July, manufacturers of plug-in electric vehicles sold 55000 vehicles, an increase of 173% over the same period last year and 4% month-on-month growth, accounting for 23% of the total, forming a good trend of high growth. In July, sales of 145000 Class B electric vehicles rose 69% from a year earlier, down 11% from a month earlier, accounting for 29% of pure electric vehicles. The A00+A0 class economic electric vehicle market in the pure electric market is rising, of which the wholesale sales of Class A00 are 85000, down 35% from the same period last year, up 3% from the previous month, accounting for 17% of the pure electric share, down 13 percentage points from the same period last year; A0 wholesale sales are 156000, accounting for 32% of the pure electric share, up 10 percentage points from the same period last year; A class electric vehicles are 95000, accounting for 19% of the pure electric share The sales volume of electric vehicles at all levels is relatively divided. Total wholesale passenger car sales in July exceeded 20, 000 vehicles (19 in the same period last year): 51258 BYD Song, 44695 BYD Qin, 43961 Model Y, 33027 Lang Yi, 31950 BYD Dolphin, 31456 BYD Yuan, 28001 Seagull, 27,562 Xuanyi, 25,345 CS75, 25,237 BYD, 24394 Suten, 22437 Eian S 22437, 21,286 Carola, 21,265 Harvard H6, 20440 Ruihu 8 and 20324 Model 3. Among them, new energy ranks among the top three in terms of overall passenger car sales, and its dominant position is obvious. 2) Retail: the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 36.1%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points over the 26.8% penetration rate in the same period last year. In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 59.7%; that of luxury cars was 20.3%; and that of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 5.1%. In terms of monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of mainstream independent brands of new energy vehicles in July was 72%, down 0.6% from the same period last year; the share of joint venture brand new energy vehicles was 5.5%, down 1% from the same period last year; and the share of new power was 15%, down 1.5% from the same period last year. Tesla's share was 4.9%, an increase of 3.2 points over the same period last year. 3) exports: 88000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in July, an increase of 80% over the same period last year, up 26% from June, accounting for 27% of passenger car exports. Among them, pure electric accounted for 92% of new energy exports, and pure electric exports accounted for 50% of new energy exports. With the scale advantage and market expansion demand of China's new energy, more and more brands of Chinese-made new energy products go abroad, their recognition abroad continues to improve, and the service network continues to improve. In addition, the double anti-risk in Europe has not yet been realized, as a result, the export market of new energy continues to improve. In terms of manufacturers' exports in July, Tesla China 32862, BYD 18169, SAIC passenger vehicles 17724, SAIC GM Wuling 6674, Dongfeng Egeter 6119, Great Wall 2391, Geely 2280, Skyworth 974, Chery 285, Dongfeng Yu'an 282, SAIC Chase 171,146Changan Ford and Shenlong 127vehicles. From the overseas market retail data monitoring of independent exports, A0 electric vehicles account for a high proportion and are the absolute main force of exports. SAIC and other independent brands have a strong performance in Europe, and BYD and other independent brands are rising in Southeast Asia. In addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export car companies, the recent export of new forces has also been gradually launched, and overseas markets have also begun to show data. 4) Automobile enterprises: the overall trend of new energy passenger car enterprises is strong in July, and BYD pure electric and plug-in twin drives consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy; the traditional car companies represented by Changan, SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile and Geely are particularly tenacious in the new energy sector. In terms of product launch, with the multi-line development of independent car companies on new energy routes, the market base continues to expand, and the number of manufacturers' wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles has reached 15 (an increase of 2 from the previous month and a decrease of 1 from the same period last year), accounting for 88.1% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles (82.7% last month and 83.4% in the same period last year). Among them: 261105 BYD, 64285 Tesla China, 45025 GAC EA, 41014 Geely, 36897 Changan, 34531 SAIC-GM Wuling, 34134 ideal Motor, 28896 Great Wall Motor, 23,750 SAIC passenger vehicles, 20,462Lai, 14,335 zero-running vehicles, 13,378 SAIC-Volkswagen, 11008 Xiaopeng, 1,0039 Nezha and 10021 SAIC-GM. 5) New Power: the retail share of New Power in July was 13.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The overall sales performance of new forces such as ideal, Ultimate, Zero and other new forces was still strong compared with the same period last year and month-on-month. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen is strong in the lead, with 21920 new energy vehicles wholesale, accounting for 59% of the mainstream joint venture pure electric share. Volkswagen's firm electric transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be launched. 6) General mix: 64000 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were wholesale in July, down 22% from the same period last year and 11% from the previous month. Among them, 24636 were FAW Toyota, 22385 were Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, 4703 were Dongfeng Honda, 4066 were GAC MOTOR, 3232 were Guangzhou Automobile Honda, 2166 were Dongfeng Nissan, 1299 were Changan Ford, 962 were Dongfeng passenger vehicles, 646 were Dongfeng Yueda Kia, 126 were Geely. The performance of the hybrid market continues to weaken.

2. The prospect of the national passenger car market in August 2023

There were 23 working days in August, the same as last year. With the structural differentiation of the growth of the car market, the traditional car production capacity of some enterprises is abundant, the time of taking high-temperature leave is longer, and the car market has entered a period of rest.

With the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of electrification, private car travel is also an inevitable trend. Before the start of the school season in August, the demand for a second car from families such as buying a car to and from school to and from school is stronger. The demand for new and used cars continues to be strong and will continue to be the cornerstone of supporting the current size of the car market.

At present, oil prices remain high, which is conducive to the growth of new energy vehicles. The market of new energy vehicles will continue to accelerate in an all-round way, and the self-branded economical electric vehicles (A00 + A0) will continue to expand, forming a replacement effect on the traditional fuel vehicle market in this field. New energy products continue to be launched, covering a wide range of price segments and vehicle categories, product features cover all market segments, the promotion enthusiasm of all mainstream manufacturers is at a high level, and the acceptance of range and mixed models in the market has also been improved. bring a large year-on-year increase in new energy.

At present, the complex and changeable external environment has a great impact on consumer confidence, the consumer confidence of some consumers is not strong, the performance of the first purchase demand is far less than the exchange demand. In the early stage, the excessively prosperous property market brought great debt pressure on residents, and the recent cooling of the property market is good for the car market, which can promote the recovery of purchasing power of the car market.

The continuous strengthening of substantial sales promotion in the first half of the year has disturbed the normal price trend of the car market, and the terminal price promotion level in July has generally returned to normal. however, with the weakening of the performance of the peak and valley of the overall market in different months of the year and the influence of the base in the same period last year, considering the comprehensive factors such as maintaining exposure, achieving the annual target and forming the sales potential energy of the second half of the year, it is expected that some market segments will continue to maintain normal sales promotion. Do not rule out the phenomenon of counter-cyclical overweight promotion in some car companies.

Since July, extreme weather has brought continuous attention to regional floods, and a number of car companies have taken action to provide many flood relief care services. Take the rescue service of automobile enterprises as an example, it is not only the extension of after-sales service of enterprise products, but also the embodiment of the care and protection of consumers. By providing intimate and efficient rescue services, it not only shows the car companies' concern for the life safety and travel needs of consumers, but also conveys the values and brand image of the enterprise.

Pay attention to the follow-up effect of the guidance on promoting the dual-use Public Infrastructure Construction of Super-large cities actively and steadily adopted by the National standing Committee in July.

3. The demand for replacement has become the core of supporting the growth of fuel vehicles.

The off-season performance of the car market in July is good, which is a sign of the gradual maturity of China's car market, reflecting that the demand for exchange has gradually become the main force of the car market. The growth of China's auto market shows the characteristics of "accelerating growth in the early stage and entering a platform period in the later stage". For example, 10 million vehicles reached 10.93 million in 2010, 15 million reached 15.7 million in 2013, and nearly 20 million reached 19.66 million in 2015. it reached a recent peak of 23.72 million in 2017 and then fell back to the 2000 million level.

Passenger car retail in 2013 is only 75% of the total retail sales in 2022. The convenience and travel expansion scenes brought by cars show a significant improvement in quality of life and self-reward in the stage of life. Combined with many factors of vehicle ownership, a large number of car owners from 2013 to 2017 have entered the purchase cycle. And domestic house prices began a new round of take-off in 2016, early car buyers should have the primitive accumulation of house purchases, have received the dividend of this round of house prices rise, so their purchase ability is still very strong. The exchange rate in the car market reached 45% of sales in 2022 and is expected to reach 48% this year.

The car purchase characteristic of the purchase group is relatively rational, and the purchase enthusiasm is higher when the price is low, so the high promotion in the off-season from June to July can achieve a higher proportion of car replacement. The performance of the car market is characterized by a relatively high demand for luxury cars, and the strong trend of traditional luxury cars in recent months, which fully reflects the strong driving role of the internal demand for purchase.

4. The passenger car market forecast in 2023 should be judged at the beginning of the year.

In 2023, the economy and society will return to normal operation in an all-round way, and the main economic indicators will pick up somewhat, but the foundation for recovery is still not solid. On the other hand, there is a contradiction between "excessive growth of production capacity" and "relative lack of demand" in the automobile market, resulting in the continuous "internal volume" of the automobile market in the first half of the year. From electric cars, plug-ins to fuel cars, from price to products, from marketing to channels, the automobile market is facing unprecedented white-hot competition.

At present, great changes have taken place in the competition pattern of China's automobile industry, domestic consumers' acceptance of new energy continues to rise, the proportion of luxury cars in the market is increasing, and automobile exports have also entered a take-off period. superimposed on the domestic purchase tax on new energy vehicles will be implemented "two reductions and two exemptions", and "hundred cities linkage", "thousands of counties" and other automobile consumption promotion activities, will also have a comprehensive and far-reaching impact on the automobile market. The demand in the off-season in July remains strong, which is also in line with our expectations, but there is still some uncertainty in the peak season at the end of the year. Based on the above considerations, the Federation will keep the forecast of 21 million retail passenger cars and 8.5 million wholesale new energy passenger vehicles unchanged this year.

5. the adjustment of double points policy in version 2023 promotes the sustainable development of passenger cars.

In recent years, the green transformation of the global automobile industry has been accelerated. China's new energy passenger car market has doubled rapidly in 2021 and 2022 after the adjustment of subsidy decline in 2019 and the first half of 2020. It is inevitable that the policy can not keep up with the rapidly changing market. In the implementation of the "double points Management measures for New Energy vehicles", there are some problems, such as inflexible mechanism, insufficient ability to adjust market supply and demand, large fluctuation of integral price and so on. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an amendment to the "measures for parallel Management of average fuel consumption of passenger car Enterprises and points of New Energy vehicles", which brings a better positive effect on the development of the industry.

This time, the "integral method" revises the integral scores of standard models of new energy passenger vehicles, improves the integral proportion requirements of new energy vehicles, and adds flexible measures for the management of new energy vehicle integral pool. In particular, it increases the policy measures of the integral pool, gives enterprises more opportunities for compliance flexibility, and improves the guidance measures for fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger vehicles and the integration flexibility measures of new energy vehicles. With the "relaxation" of the target value of fuel consumption in the process of switching from NEDC to China, enterprises generally expect that the target value and implementation requirements of fuel consumption in the next stage need to be optimized and adjusted, so some car companies will make full use of the pre-stored points of the integral pool for extraction and use after 2025. The idea of policy designation is very targeted and innovative. The 2023 version of the double points policy adjustment will have a sustainable and high growth driving force for new energy vehicles in the next two years.

6. In the second half of the year, the price war of fuel vehicles tends to stabilize gradually, and new energy vehicles win by improving the competitiveness of their products.

In the first half of the year, due to the influence of the inventory switching pressure of State 6 B, the uncertainty of the corresponding inventory postponement policy brought panic mentality of some manufacturers, and the regional large price reduction subsidies for some models since March led to the continuous increase of national fuel vehicle promotion subsidies. Sales in the fuel vehicle market rose from 12.2% in February to an all-time high of 15.5% in June, with an increase of 3.3% in three months, which is also rarely seen in history. The overall sales promotion reached the historical high level of the implementation of the sixth year in June 2019. With the decline in the price of lithium carbonate, the price promotion of new energy vehicles has continued to increase since February, with the promotion of new energy passenger vehicles rising from a low of 2.8% in February to 6.4% in June, an increase of 3.6 percentage points. With the implementation of the sixth national emission policy in the second half of the year, the impact of the price war brought by the old inventory of the sixth national sixth fades, the pressure of price promotion in the fuel vehicle market weakens, the mentality of the dealers tends to be stable, and the price trend of the fuel vehicle market will inevitably return to normal in the second half of the year. With the seasonal rebound in demand for fuel vehicles in the autumn, there may be a trend of "stabilizing first and then recycling".

New energy vehicle is the core direction of the transformation and development of automobile enterprises, and the market competition situation is still unstable. Many car companies hope to further increase the market share of new energy and occupy the main position of the market by increasing the scale and reducing costs. I believe that in the second half of the year, car companies are more likely to enhance the competitiveness of their products than simply reduce prices to enhance the scale of the new energy vehicle market.

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