Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, July 28 (Reuters)-China's demand for gasoline could peak as early as next year as electric vehicle sales soar, a milestone in China's energy transformation but also a "headache" for global refiners, Reuters reported.

▲ Pexels International Energy Agency (IEA) and consulting firm Rystad Energy have advanced their forecast for peak gasoline demand in China by about a year to 2024, while PetroChina and Sinopec, China's big state-owned oil companies, forecast 2025.

CTOnews.com previously reported that the share of electric vehicles in China's car market jumped to 28 per cent from January to May this year, up from 21 per cent in the same period last year and much higher than 9 per cent in the same period in 2021, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. At the same time, the share of fuel vehicles in China's car market has shrunk from 91% two years ago to 72% today.

China is now seeking to stimulate the popularity of electric vehicles in rural areas by improving charging infrastructure and encouraging support from banks, local governments and carmakers, according to Gaurav Batra, chief automotive and transport analyst at Ernst & Young, a consultancy.

As sales of electric vehicles accelerate, Paris-based IEA expects Chinese gasoline demand to peak at about 3.7 million barrels a day in 2024, having previously forecast a steady peak in 2025-26.

Rystad Energy also believes that China's gasoline demand will peak at 3.7 million barrels per day, but it will come as early as the first quarter of 2024, compared with the previous forecast of 2024-2025.

PetroChina's research department expects gasoline demand to peak in 2025 as electric vehicle sales accelerate, and expects China's gasoline demand to shrink by 2.3 per cent a year between 2026 and 2030.

The United States, the world's largest gasoline consumer, reached a peak in demand in 2019, and with China nearing a peak, the agency expects the global gasoline market to enter a surplus by 2025. According to IEA's forecast, without any major production adjustment in refineries, the global gasoline surplus is expected to grow steadily to about 1.3 million barrels per day by 2028.

Under this premise, the United States, China and India are likely to shift from a roughly balanced gasoline market to a net gasoline exporter in 2028, with net exports of about 600000 b / d, 900000 b / d and 130000 b / d, respectively.

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