Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

When Tesla's second-quarter operating data were released, Musk made a surprising speech at the financial report meeting. "the economy is not good, and Tesla may cut prices in the future," he said. "

As he spoke, Tesla's shares fell nearly 5 per cent in after-hours trading.

Wall Street analysts hit the nail on the head:

What Tesla was doing in the second quarter was actually sacrificing part of his profits for sales.

Although Tesla made 2 billion a day in the second quarter and made more than 40, 000 by selling a car, his earning power has actually dropped to the lowest level in three years.

What did Musk say? At the second-quarter earnings meeting, Musk first defended Tesla's frequent price cuts.

From a macroeconomic point of view.

He believes that Tesla has been reducing prices in response to economic uncertainty affecting the possibility of a decline in sales.

Against the backdrop of high inflation and recession, average interest rates rise, users' borrowing costs become higher, and consumers are less willing to spend on cars in bulk.

So Tesla needs to cut prices to boost sales.

Macroeconomic is of course an important factor, but perhaps more urgent is that Chinese car companies are constantly launching more cost-effective models.

Musk said "continue to cut prices", indicating that he is aware that he is facing unprecedented competition.

But at the same time, Tesla's production cost is low enough to deal with the short-term threat with a price war.

What about the long term?

Musk also announced the latest developments.

Two parts. The first is the new model products.

The new Model 3 (codenamed Highland) will be put into mass production by the end of this year. Musk said that starting from the third quarter, the factory will suspend modifications and upgrades for a period of time to meet the demand for new car production.

Second, the cyber pickup is really coming. "it will be delivered this year and mass production next year," Musk said. Moreover, the demand for cyber pickups is much higher than expected and has many new technologies, such as "the battery energy density is 10% higher than the current Tesla model".

The second important development is about Tesla in autopilot development and artificial intelligence research and development.

Musk caused an uproar when he dropped a rim nuclear bomb and said that the FSD could be licensed to other car companies.

This turned out to be true, and Musk confirmed at the earnings conference that FSD's authorization was already in close contact with a large car company. It is quite possible that other brand models with FSD system are not far away.

Tesla himself has also increased the role of software supplier from a single car company.

And the long-term profits brought by FSD are difficult to estimate.

And in the short term, its ultra-high profit margin is also Musk's favorite.

In fact, the reason why Lao Ma made amazing remarks at the financial report meeting and released new developments in FSD export for the first time, the reasons are all in the second quarter of the financial report data:

Tesla, who is famous for his ability to make money, his gross profit hit an all-time low.

What kind of financial report did Tesla hand over? Tesla's delivery volume hit a new high in the second quarter, with a total of 466140 vehicles delivered, up 83.01% from the same period last year and 9.28% from the previous month.

The increase in delivery led to an increase in car sales and revenue, with total revenue of $24.927 billion (about 178.963 billion yuan) in the second quarter, up 47% from a year earlier and a slight increase of 6.85% from a month earlier.

Auto sales revenue was $21.268 billion (about 152.693 billion yuan), up 46% from a year earlier and 6.54% month-on-month, approaching the best level ever, $21.307 billion (about 153.404 billion yuan).

From this point of view, it seems that Tesla's second quarter is not bad?

Although Musk did not say it clearly, the actual data revealed the secret:

As a result of continuous price cuts, Tesla's gross profit margin fell again in the second quarter, reaching the lowest level in more than three years, at 18.20%.

This also led to a decline in operating profit, to US $2.399 billion (about 17.224 billion yuan), down 2.63% from a year earlier and 11.04% from a month earlier.

Meanwhile, Tesla's second-quarter net profit rose to $2.703 billion (about 19.406 billion yuan), up 20% from a year earlier and 7.56% from a month earlier.

According to this calculation, Tesla can earn 213 million a day in the second quarter and 41600 a day by selling a car.

The operating profit has declined while the net profit has increased, reflecting Tesla's loss of profits in the main business of "selling cars", which has been made up by other businesses.

Such as overcharging business. In North America, Tesla's supercharging station has been opened to Ford and GM. The cumulative revenue from other services such as overcharging reached 2.15 billion US dollars (about 15.436 billion yuan) in the second quarter, an increase of 46.66 percent over the same period last year.

Musk also stressed that Tesla's lithium energy storage products Megapack demand is rising, energy storage business revenue also reached $1.509 billion (about 10.834 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 74.25%.

And, because the supercomputing Dojo began production, Tesla's R & D spending in the second quarter increased for the first time in three years to US $943 million (about 6.77 billion yuan), an increase of 41.38% year-on-year and 22.31% month-on-month.

So let's sum up Tesla's performance in the second quarter:

The main car building and selling business, began to have a slight crisis, had to reduce prices at the expense of profits to maintain sales data and growth rate.

In fact, it is also obvious where Tesla's crisis or challenge comes from.

Tesla encountered the strongest resistance in China. In the second quarter, Tesla sold 155676 vehicles in China, up 74.38% from a year earlier and 13.28% from a month earlier. A total of 294100 vehicles were sold in the first half of the year, and the market share of new energy increased slightly compared with 2022, from 8.8% to 9.5%, ranking second overall.

△ Photo Source: FIFA, but everything is afraid of comparison.

In terms of absolute quantity, BYD sold 700200 new energy vehicles in the second quarter. Excluding more than 10,000 vehicles overseas, its performance in the Chinese market is still about four times that of Tesla.

Of course, Musk once said that BYD could not win by mixing. But in the second quarter of 2023, BYD's pure electricity sales in China also reached 352163, beating Tesla by two and a half times.

From the relative growth rate, market share, Tesla is now in China is also stubbornly suppressed by independent brands.

Not long ago, when BYD was synonymous with low, Tesla had already taken off in China, and the market share of new energy once exceeded 50% (2021).

Now it is only about 10%, and the gap is visible to the naked eye.

And BYD's largest selling pure electric model, Song PLUS EV, the latest version of the guide price of 169800-209800, in fact, the price has been comparable to Tesla Model 3.

So we can draw the following conclusion:

Tesla has encountered unprecedented strong resistance in China, the competitiveness of vehicle configuration has been greatly diluted, and the current growth is maintained by sharp price cuts and continued brand influence.

Of course, Tesla cake, not only BYD, Eian, ideal and other growth rates are very "terrible".

In addition, independent brands such as Xiaopeng, Changan Deep Blue and Nezha are also constantly rolling in, launching many competitive products with lower prices and richer configurations than Model 3 and Model Y on the market.

However, under the dual role of not changing generations for a long time and the continuous inward roll of independent brands, Tesla has begun to show fatigue in China and can only give up part of his profits in exchange for sales to ensure sales.

As for Tesla's growth in the Chinese market, it can actually be understood as a "rising tide lifts all boats" in the context of China's rapid increase in new energy penetration.

The Chinese market is supposed to be Tesla's biggest cash machine and growth engine, and it has been like this for some time, and it can even be said to have made Tesla what he is today.

So Musk may be able to bear the loss of anyone, but can not accept any mistakes in the Chinese market.

Therefore, before the new car comes on the market, price reduction has also become the best and most direct means for Tesla.

Taking the second quarter of 2023 as the node to look at Tesla, we can also find that it is currently in the second cycle of Xu Li stage, with a lot of cards in hand.

In the short term, there will be mass production of the new Model 3, which is said to be equipped with HW4.0.

In the medium term, the delivery of cyber pickups and cheap models will lead to a new wave of substantial growth.

In the long run, the evolution of Tesla's AI capabilities and the authorized export of FSD will not only bring ultra-high profits, but also make Tesla gradually go beyond the connotation of car companies and evolve to a software algorithm and AI service provider.

At that time, the evaluation method of Tesla's value will also have an essential change.

The competition will be fiercer in the future!

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