Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Wen | Aohu

As we all know, there are four days every year: spring, summer, autumn and winter.

For many years, as long as "fuel car" and "electric car" tag collide, a book can always be blanketed for three days and nights. This will go on for many years before onlookers get tired of such Brownian-style discussions.

Although the first appearance of such sounds can be traced back to the ancient Prev 5000 points, one year, two years, three years. Over the years, a ball-like voice heard cocoons in the ears, people still enjoy it, still tears in their eyes, still waiting for the world to change one day.

Too many people are shouting "the right nonsense", but maybe others want to know where we are, how many roads we have to go, and what is standing in our way.

Solid state, the latest "fuel truck killer" of Schrodinger's bubble is the condensed state battery unveiled by the Ningde era at the Shanghai auto show in April.

The energy density of Gouda 500Wh/kg is really amazing, and the application mode of flying first (manned aircraft) and then getting on the bus also gives people a deep first impression on its safety and high energy density.

If there is no concept of battery energy density: Tesla's latest 4680 battery (monomer) is about 250Wh/kg, liquid electrolyte ternary lithium battery is generally considered difficult to exceed 300Wh/kg. So far difficult to produce 150kWh solid-state battery package, this indicator is only 360Wh/kg.

The high energy density of the 500Wh/kg means that even if there is no major innovation in the structure of the battery pack, it is easier to achieve an oversized battery pack that exceeds the 200kWh without increasing the weight of the car, doubling the battery life of the electric vehicle in place. And the condensed battery is said to be in mass production by the end of the year.

It sounds like science fiction, and the complete substitution of pure electricity for fuel is just around the corner.

Condensed matter can be considered as a kind of semi-solid battery, that is, the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium battery is replaced by "high power biomimetic condensed state electrolyte", which has a more stable physical form than the liquid state, so it is possible to take more measures to increase the energy density.

However, it must be pointed out that the existing "500Wh/kg" of condensed state batteries describes condensed state batteries that are ready to be used in manned aircraft. The state description of the "specification-level application version of condensed battery" is "it will be launched soon", so there is no commitment to energy density; secondly, "mass production capacity within this year" does not mean "mass production, loading, landing, and on the road within the year".

To be more popular: we don't know whether the aviation-grade 500Wh/kg condensed state battery has enough production efficiency, production cost, cycle life, charge and discharge performance and even volume energy density for passenger cars. And "mass production" of the specific performance of the vehicle gauge-level condensed state battery, such as whether the weight energy density is the same as 500Wh/kg can also achieve fast charge and quick release, also do not know.

For all-solid-state batteries, the current general expectations in the industry are looking forward to 2030. For semi-solid batteries, although the existing 350Wh/kg first-class products are out of the laboratory and into the state of mass production, but the specific posture of landing is a new level. Recent cases have either stood up or their performance has been compromised.

Overcharge, who plant trees who enjoy the cool compared to the short-term difficult to break through the energy density, and battery capacity and mileage, a more feasible option now may be to increase the charging speed. Xiaopeng adopted the 800V platform for the first time on the G9, and ideal also released the overcharging strategy while marching into pure electricity.

Achieving a 5-minute full charge seems more realistic and effective than letting the real life exceed the 1000km.

More than 400kW ultra-high power 800V high voltage fast charge, in fact, in today's cool techs is not difficult to reach. The crux of the problem has shifted from the simple difficulty of technical implementation to the commercial decision-making of pile matching.

First for the new car using 800V platform, 4C high-rate battery, then there must be "no piles available" embarrassment for a period of time, sitting on 800V charging capacity, but it is difficult to find a matching overcharge pile, the new car charging advantage is bound to be buried for a while, such as the current Xiaopeng G9.

Ideally, as the most affluent of the new forces, the overcharging plan is to build 3000 overcharging stations by 2025. As a comparison, as of April this year, Tesla had more than 1600 overcharge stations and 10000 + overcharge piles in China.

In view of the current plan that there is one 4C supercharged pile in each station, it can be generally considered that the number of ideal 4C piles in 2025 will not exceed 3000, which is not enough to support the imagination of some people that "pure electricity depends on overcharging. Completely replace fuel".

Of course, this is only a natural deduction of the current situation, and it is ideal that the advantage of 4C overcharged pile in charging speed can be transformed into the advantage of "overturning rate" of a single charging pile, so it may have better commercial conversion efficiency than ordinary overcharged pile.

This commercial potential may also be shown as a charging standard. At present, the ideal 2C fast filling pile charge for trial operation has reached 2.40 yuan / kWh, which is close to (or may even exceed) the cost per kilometer when using fuel, while the existing sites are still located in high-speed service areas where the land is more relaxed than that of urban areas.

No one knows whether higher charging standards will be adopted after the opening of 4C piles in the future. However, even if the charge per kilowatt-hour of 4C pile is higher than that of ordinary fast charging, the relative time saved and the convenience of promotion are entirely reasonable.

Just the same, some users fantasize, because 800V promotion and then (with the current electric car experience of low electricity) painless realization of electric cars to completely replace fuel cars, it is still unlikely in the short to medium term.

Wireless, maybe the shortcut is in addition to "increasing the single range" and "speeding up the charging speed", there are some alternative ways to enhance the replenishment experience of pure electric vehicles.

For example, as we all know, change the electricity. However, due to various structural constraints, power exchange is unlikely to become a reversal artifact to save the entire pure electricity camp, but will only serve as a special alienation choice for some car companies. ("when there is no wind, everything looks like a tuyere")

Auxiliary charging facilities, such as the vision charging robot and Lutes' charging robot "flash charging robot", can improve the charging experience in a straight line in some special scenes, and can be used as phased responses and supplementary measures. but it is impossible to become a universal facility to promote the overall situation after all.

Wireless charging can also be one of them. Volvo began testing its 40kW power vehicle wireless charging technology in March last year and currently produces more products than 20kW.

Compared with wired charging, the value of wireless charging lies not only in eliminating the trouble of inserting and pulling guns, but also in the possibility of combining with automatic parking in the future. For example, in intelligent parking lots, it is possible to charge more vehicles in batches with fewer charging facilities, without the need for users to move the car or bear high occupancy fees.

However, this kind of application not only requires infrastructure update investment and complex software construction, even from the relatively simple technical implementation, such as high-power wireless charging also requires the vehicle to increase the weight of at least ten kg. Therefore, they still remain in the theoretical verification stage, and it is necessary to prove that these models have enough potential to popularize.

Augmentation, transition is not transition. "all mixing is just transition, and the future will eventually belong to pure electricity." this is a brand and belief deeply engraved in many people's minds, and it is also a personal business card mentioned by many KOL bloggers.

However, as said at the beginning, such "correct nonsense" is meaningless: one year is a transition, five years is a transition, and 50 years can also be called a transition. According to the definition of "transition", each of us is nothing more than a transition between parents and younger generations, but so what?

If the hybrid or extended range survives as a "transition" long enough to cover the normal service life of a new car, then the term "transition" is just a correct but worthless nonsense.

It is like saying that all fossil fuels today are nothing more than the transition between drilling for fire and controlled nuclear fusion-correct but nonsense. Today, the earliest additional taxi has been on the road for four or five years, not to mention mixed cars.

During the period of "reference for the current decisions of this generation of consumers", pure electric power may not allow everyone to completely replace fuel vehicles without loss of profit (generally refers to all vehicles with internal combustion engines). Technological evolution may leap forward, but it will never change overnight.

Whether it is electrochemical technology, energy supplement system or all kinds of other side roads, they all have their own limitations and regrets, and it is precisely because of their respective limitations and regrets that we still have to accept the current imperfect environment for the use of pure electric vehicles.

Of course, we should also actively look at every next-generation technology that may fundamentally improve the experience of pure electricity use, has a clear direction to tackle key problems. It's just that when bombarded with shocking news, "what is said" is often not important, what is important is that they "don't say anything".

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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