Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, June 26, according to Taiwan's Economic Daily, the stock of Apple's iPhone 15 series of new phones began to help TSMC's 3nm family shipments increase in the second half of the year. Analysts are optimistic that TSMC's US dollar revenue in the third quarter, driven by Apple's big order, is expected to rise back to more than $17 billion (CTOnews.com Note: about RMB 122.4 billion). If converted conservatively to a low second-quarter forecast, quarterly growth will exceed 11%.

However, judging from the overall acceptance of orders, the supply chain revealed that only Apple orders were relatively strong in TSMC in the second half of the year, while other applications were still in the inventory adjustment stage, although there were some emergency orders and short-term orders. however, it is still unable to create a report card with the same strong growth as in the same period last year, which is expected to decline from the third quarter of last year, the second highest in the same period.

TSMC did not comment on the financial data estimated by analysts, saying only that the operating outlook for the third quarter would be announced at the next earnings meeting in July. Even if the recent emergency orders for artificial intelligence boost TSMC's short-term operations, the share of revenue is still limited, and the most dynamic applications in the second half of the year are still high-end smartphones, analysts said.

According to people in the supply chain, TSMC's operation and development in the second half of the year is driven by 3nm family shipments, and it is expected that the related revenue from 3nm will exceed 100 billion yuan this year, mainly from big customer Apple; as for the vacancy of 3nm outsourcing order that Intel postponed before, it will be filled by other front-line high-speed computing and cloud Netcom companies one after another, and automobile companies are also actively evaluating the follow-up introduction in 2025.

According to Statista, a research firm, TSMC's revenue share of the top seven customers in 2021 is estimated to be 25.4% of Apple, 8.2% of MediaTek, 8.1% of Broadcom, 7.6% of Qualcomm, 7.2% of Intel and 5.8% of Nvidia. TSMC's revenue reached a new high in 2022, and it is estimated that Apple is still the largest customer, accounting for about 23% of the revenue contribution, which translates to more than 500 billion yuan of the largest customer's revenue contribution, and the absolute amount continues to set a new record, highlighting the deep relationship between Apple and TSMC.

Analysts expect that even if TSMC's June revenue is disturbed by factors such as customers' end-of-quarter stocktaking, it may be about 8.5% to 22% lower than in May, the second-quarter forecast is still expected to meet the target, and is the bottom of this year's operation. According to TSMC's previously released second-quarter dollar-denominated forecasts, quarterly consolidated revenue was estimated at US $15.2 billion to US $16 billion, a quarterly decrease of about 6.7% based on a median value of US $15.6 billion, when the exchange rate was assumed to be NT $30.40 to US $1 in the second quarter.

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