Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Beijing time on June 21 morning news, it is reported that driverless cars have become a reality in San Francisco. One day, flying may cruise above them, too.

But for now, it seems the technology still has two hurdles to overcome: regulatory approval and landing sites.

The SPAC frenzy of 2021 has led to the entry of companies such as Joby, Archer Aviation, Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace that have yet to generate revenue. But as the frenzy subsided, these companies raised millions of dollars but never went into business.

Morgan Stanley expects the potential market for unmanned aerial vehicles to reach $1.5 trillion by 2040. But that prediction is now looking increasingly outlandish.

Valuations have plummeted, with current SPACs typically worth $10 a share. Joby is trading at less than $8, Archer at $4.45, Lilium at $1.35 and Vertical at just $17.

But the investment is still going on. After ordering 100 aircraft from Archer, United struck a deal with Eve Air Mobility for 200 aircraft. Boeing is also supporting Wisk, a start-up that flies without a pilot.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects demand for flights to be high during the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Billy Nolen, the FAA official responsible for preparing the forecast, has joined Archer. The news even pushed Archer's share price up by a fifth.

However, even if the aircraft itself receives regulatory approval, infrastructure remains scarce. Flying is also called eVTOL (Electronic Vertical Take-off and Landing Vehicle), which requires a large area of barrier-free plane to achieve safe landing. If the noise is too loud, residents will complain. Transportation network software developer Lacuna Technologies points out that electric planes also need charging stations.

Businesses are preparing to use existing helipads as a transition. Archer, for example, wants to fly between a helipad in lower Manhattan and Newark Airport. But in order to truly provide useful services, they also need multiple convenient downtown sites. Without a supporting network of landing points, the aircraft will not be able to take off.

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