Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"Rockets have to burn selected coal, not even washing coal." this is the work of Guo Degang's crosstalk. However, the burning of gutter oil on the plane has long been realized.

This kind of "gutter oil" belongs to the category of biomass fuel and is an application form of biomass energy. The so-called biomass (biomass) refers to all kinds of organisms formed by photosynthesis, including all animals, plants and microorganisms. Biomass energy (biomass energy) is the energy form of solar energy stored in biomass in the form of chemical energy, that is, energy with biomass as the carrier.

Therefore, not only gutter oil, but also various forms of agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry waste, such as straw, sawdust and animal fat, are available biomass raw materials, which are expected to contribute to the reform of the global energy system.

In this paper, fruit shell hard technology will introduce the basic classification of biomass fuel, introduce the current market development situation, and finally analyze the main difficulties faced by the industry, and interpret this not-so-novel energy track for readers.

Chen Juanlei | author

Li Tuo | Editor

1. The rise of biomass fuel in recent years, which is not new but green, mainly benefits from the global wave of environmental protection, the carbon reduction movement participated by many countries, and the energy system reform caused by a variety of reasons. Because of its obvious environmental potential, many countries regard biomass fuel as a key tool for greenhouse gas control, but biofuel is not a new concept. Biogas digester with a long history in rural areas of China is a primary utilization form of renewable biomass energy. Recently, the relatively hot "sustainable aviation fuel" (Sustainable Aviation Fuel,SAF) also has a history of more than 10 years. As early as 2011, Dutch airlines began to use SAF;2012 on commercial flights, intercontinental routes also began to be introduced, and domestic enterprises also tried to supply goods in the same year.

Sustainable aviation fuel is not only a kind of bioaviation coal, but this paper specifically refers to the SAF of biofuels.

According to the raw materials, biofuels can be roughly divided into two categories: traditional biofuels (also known as first-generation biofuels) and sustainable biomass fuels (also known as advanced biomass fuels or second-generation biofuels).

Traditional biofuels mainly use grain as raw materials, such as rapeseed oil to diesel, palm oil to diesel, soybean oil to diesel, the current bioethanol is also mainly produced by corn. Sustainable biomass fuels must be produced from non-food raw materials, such as non-edible parts of crops, or waste oils, animal fats, etc. [2].

Compared with traditional biofuels, advanced biofuels have higher greenhouse gas emission reduction properties, do not occupy arable land, let alone involve potential ethical crisis. There is no doubt that advanced biofuels are the real sustainable energy, and it is also a clear trend of industry development.

According to the material form, biomass fuel can be divided into three categories: gaseous fuel (bio-natural gas, bio-pyrolytic gas, bio-hydrogen, etc.), liquid fuel (fuel ethanol, biodiesel, aviation kerosene) and solid molding fuel (wood particles, etc.). There are many subdivisions, and only four relatively mature routes are listed in this paper.

Biological natural gas: using livestock and poultry manure, crop straw, urban organic domestic waste and industrial organic waste as raw materials, biogas is produced by anaerobic fermentation. after purification and purification, the green, low-carbon, clean and renewable gas, which is completely consistent with the composition and calorific value of conventional natural gas, is actually a kind of purified biogas.

Fuel ethanol: ethanol is made from raw materials such as starch (corn, wheat, potato, etc.), cellulose (straw, forest, etc.) or sugar (sugar cane, molasses, etc.) by fermentation distillation, and further dehydrated. Add an appropriate amount of denaturant to make special fuel ethanol, and then mix with special gasoline components through a specific process according to a certain proportion, the fuel commonly known as ethanol gasoline can be prepared. This kind of fuel, which is widely used in the United States and Brazil, is one of the most familiar biofuels with the most mature technology and low finished product price. The defect is that a high proportion of mixing will produce solid waste in the combustion process to damage the pipeline, and its environmental protection is controversial.

Biodiesel: fatty acid methyl ester or ethyl ester formed by the reaction of vegetable oil, animal oil or waste oil (commonly known as "gutter oil") with methanol or ethanol. Biodiesel is another widely used biofuel in addition to bioethanol, and Europe is the core consumer market. Biodiesel is also mainly blended into blended fuel, and sometimes engines need to be modified. The bio-aviation kerosene (SAF) mentioned at the beginning is a kind of biodiesel, which is said to have 80 per cent less carbon dioxide emissions than conventional aviation fuel by mixing green aviation fuel with conventional fuel in a certain proportion. At present, the most prominent problem of biodiesel is that the finished product is expensive, and the mainstream raw materials are mainly vegetable oil, but there is a hidden danger of damaging the environment.

Photo Source: Guangfa Securities [3] in addition to the first generation using vegetable oil as raw materials and the second generation using waste recycling, biodiesel also has a third-generation technology for extracting microbial oils from algae, yeasts, molds and bacteria. The advantage of this technology is that it does not occupy cultivated land and fresh water resources, and can be produced on a large scale, which is theoretically the best development direction in the future. The disadvantage is that the process at this stage is too complex, the technology is not mature enough, and it does not have the ability to scale.

In addition to raw materials, biodiesel can also be divided into ester-based biodiesel (FAME) and hydrocarbon-based biodiesel (HVO) according to processing technology and finished product structure. Among them, FAME is the main product used at present because of its more mature processing technology and lower cost. The price of HVO is still on the high side, but its chemical structure is closer to that of traditional diesel. It can be added in high proportion or even used directly, and there is no need to modify the engine.

Wood particles: using loose agricultural and forestry residues (such as straw, branches, sawdust, etc.) as raw materials, dried and crushed to a certain particle size, under certain temperature, humidity and pressure conditions, extruded into regular (such as lumps, particles, etc.), a new type of clean fuel with high density, which can be burned directly. The advantage is that raw materials are extremely cheap and easy to obtain, do not need large production lines or refining facilities, and are suitable for promotion in rural areas; the disadvantages are general energy efficiency, difficult collection of raw materials, difficult scale and controversial environmental protection.

This is the thing, picture source: public information the E-fuels mentioned in the exemption clause for Germany in the recent EU 2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is not a biomass fuel, but an electronic synthetic fuel. This extremely advanced fuel is based on renewable energy generation as energy supply, through thermal catalysis, electrocatalysis and other paths to reduce carbon dioxide captured by technical means to synthesize hydrocarbon or alcohol ether fuel [4]. At present, the maturity of this technology route is very low, and it does not have the basic elements of large-scale commercialization.

Biofuels have a wide range of applications, not only can be used in transportation to replace traditional fossil fuels, but also can be used as power supply, heating, but also can be used as raw materials for industrial production. Due to the sustainability and low emission characteristics of biomass fuel, it is regarded as a very excellent green energy, and the global carbon reduction demand is also its core competitiveness. Especially in the field of transportation, due to many difficulties encountered by aviation, commercial vehicles and large ships in finding green alternative energy, the current pure electricity scheme can not provide an effective solution for the time being. Biofuels are often seen as the key to carbon reduction solutions in this field.

But there is a demand and a market, supply and can not be directly equated, at least for biofuels, the concept of supporting the industry has not yet fully formed an open market.

2. The demand for biomass fuel in the policy-driven market is mainly driven by carbon reduction policies and carbon neutralization goals of various countries, and the spontaneous market behavior is relatively limited.

There are not many policies related to biomass energy in China, and it is mainly mentioned as a supplementary energy in the "14th five-year Plan", and there is no separate and clear plan.

The EU's carbon reduction measures are obviously more radical and are the main promoters of advanced biomass fuels. For example, the EU proposal on ensuring a level playing field for sustainable air transport, which proposes that SAF should account for at least 5% of aviation fuel by 2030 and at least 63% by 2050, and that in order to avoid the risk of carbon leakage (i.e. refueling flights in low-emission marked areas) and to maintain the competitiveness of EU Aviation Division, this standard may be extended to international flights in all European regions. And this will undoubtedly close down both supply and demand [5].

The incentives in the United States mainly come from the inflation reduction Act (IRA) implemented by the Biden administration, which provides a series of incentives for biofuels in the form of tax credits. Take the new 40B clause for SAF subsidies as an example, producers that meet emission reduction and raw material requirements are entitled to a tax credit of up to $1.75 a gallon [6].

It must be emphasized that these goals belong to a large package of framework goals, and biomass fuel is only included, which does not mean a fully accessible potential market, and competition with other renewable energy sources should also be considered.

In terms of production capacity, the domestic supply of biomass is still limited. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of biomass power generation in China was 41.32 million kilowatts, an increase of 3.34 million kilowatts over last year, including 23.86 million kilowatts for waste incineration, 16.23 million kilowatts for agriculture and forestry, and 12.2 million kilowatts for biogas. In the field of non-electric utilization, that is, biomass fuel, which is mainly concerned in this paper, in terms of biomass clean heating, the annual consumption of molded fuel is 20 million tons, industrial gas supply and civil heat supply is about 1.8 billion gigatron; in terms of biogas, the current annual output of biogas is 300 million cubic meters; in terms of bioliquid fuels, it is expected to produce 3.5 million biofuel ethanol and 2 million tons of biodiesel in 2022.

Domestic biomass fuel production capacity is small, and is mainly used for export. Take biodiesel as an example, China exported 911000 tons of biodiesel in 2022, while the total output in the same period was 1.279 million tons, accounting for 71.2% of exports [8].

As a comparison, China's national installed power generation capacity by the end of 2022 is 256405 kilowatts [9]. The natural gas consumption in January-February 2023 alone is 63.59 billion cubic meters, and the apparent consumption of diesel in the same period is 22.523 million tons [10].

It can be seen that compared with the huge total consumption of our country, the supply and consumption of biomass energy in the energy system is less. Compared with hydrogen energy, it can be found that at present, the policy side of our country is still mainly encouraging bioenergy, and it is in a marginal position in all kinds of important documents, and there are no clear phased goals and clear requirements. It can be said that the domestic market of biomass fuel has not been opened at all, and there is some uncertainty expected in the future.

In terms of biodiesel, the global production of biodiesel in 2020 is less than 41 million tons, and the demand is more than 42 million tons (due to the difference in statistical caliber, the data given by different institutions are quite different, and most of them are estimates, only one group is selected in this paper). The EU has always been the largest producer and marketer of biodiesel, with production and consumption of 13.04 million tonnes and 16.21 million tonnes respectively in 2020, accounting for 32 per cent and 38 per cent of the global total. The United States and Indonesia ranked second and third respectively in terms of production and marketing. In China, only waste oil is used as raw material to produce diesel oil, and the proportion of output and consumption is not high.

In 2021, the total global production of fuel ethanol is 27290 million gallons, with the United States (55 per cent) and Brazil (27 per cent) being the first and second largest producers and consumers respectively. China's fuel ethanol capacity accounts for only 3 per cent, at the same level as India [12] [13]. Due to the red line of China's policy of "not competing with the people for food", there are great policy restrictions on the development of ethanol fuel based on grain as raw materials, and the industry mainly seeks to develop the second generation of advanced biofuels, which will be described in detail below.

Considering that the core driving factor of the development of biomass fuel is still policy, and the demand mainly comes from mandatory requirements or demonstration projects, it is not meaningful to pay too much attention to the market. Of course, from another perspective, it can also be considered that the development path of biomass fuel is relatively clear, and the future demand is guaranteed.

If the price and production capacity of biomass fuel are comparable to those of traditional fossil fuels, it will be enough to feed hundreds of thousands of enterprises and provide tens of millions of jobs. The size of the market is just a number, which is not enough to reflect its significance to human society. Unfortunately, at this stage, sustainable biomass fuels, both in terms of production capacity and price, lack the ability to compete with traditional energy sources, and even cost so much that they have to adjust their policies temporarily.

In 2022, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global energy market continued to shake, and the price of biomass energy also skyrocketed by factors (such as climate, chemical fertilizer, planting costs, etc.). In response to runaway energy prices, countries have chosen to change their original targets, such as Argentina reducing the blending ratio of biodiesel from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, and Belgium suspending biofuel authorization to reduce fuel and food costs. Finland reduces renewable energy demand, etc. [14].

Sustainable biomass fuels cannot even compete with traditional biomass fuels in terms of price.

Take SAF as an example, the price of the first generation of bio-aviation coal will be more than 1.5 times that of traditional aviation coal, and the price of the second generation of agricultural and forestry wastes will be as high as 3 times [15]. The price of SAF is obviously not competitive in the open market, and where the market demand comes from is self-evident. At present, the optimistic expectation of talking about such a market in isolation from mandatory requirements and subsidy policies can easily be reduced to a "cake contest".

Biogas is a typical example of "the cake is too big to be branded". In terms of price, the production cost of biogas is higher than the spot price of traditional natural gas on the open market, not to mention the consumer side. This will undoubtedly restrict the development ability of the industry.

In the guidance on promoting the industrialization of Biogas (Development and Reform Energy Regulation (2019) No. 1895), the NDRC proposed that by 2025, the annual output of biogas will exceed 10 billion cubic meters, and by 2030, the annual output of biogas will exceed 20 billion cubic meters [16]. However, at present, the annual output of biomass natural gas in China is only more than 300 million cubic meters, so it is almost impossible to achieve the target. By contrast, the EU, which uses a lot of natural gas, has set a target of 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane for 2030 in the "RePowerEU" energy plan, while the EU will produce 3 billion cubic meters (only 0.5 per cent of its annual consumption) in 2021, much higher than China, but it is not easy to achieve the target annual compound growth rate of 30 per cent [17].

Fuel ethanol has some positive economic effects compared with other biofuels. For example, in April 2022, the Biden government proposed a support policy for E15 ethanol gasoline, which is more blended, allowing it to be sold throughout the year to reduce gasoline prices [18]. But in addition to performance shortcomings, the rise of electric cars has also had an impact on fuel ethanol. Second, a large part of the economy of fuel ethanol comes from its extremely low-priced raw materials, namely corn or sugar cane, which is no less controversial than it solves.

After all, expensive is not the only problem with biofuels. The industry's current structural problems are much more complicated.

3. far from expensive difficulties Unfortunately, the advantages of biomass fuels are far from masking the problems they face-which is not too surprising, as the topic of greenhouse gas emission reduction always seems to be like this.

The biggest problem with traditional biomass fuels, especially fuel ethanol and biodiesel, is to compete with the people for food. Its raw materials come directly from agricultural cultivation and consume a large amount of grain and oil crops, which is almost intolerable in the policy environment of our country. The Development Plan of Grain processing Industry (2011-2020) issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Agriculture in 2012 clearly "strictly controls the development of biomass energy processing industry using grain as raw materials" [19]. In 2014, the National Energy Administration issued the "Biodiesel Industry Development Policy" to further require that "the production of biodiesel from edible oils and oils as raw materials is strictly prohibited" [20]. In 2022, the "14th five-year Plan" of the Modern Energy system Plan once again mentioned the principle of not competing with grain for land or people for food [21]. With such a red line of policy, there is no room for growth of traditional biomass fuel in China.

Doubts about traditional biofuels are not only domestic, but have intensified in recent years. Some international organizations, including the United Nations, have criticized the production model of food crops and vegetable oil, saying that the use of crops that could have been used for rations to produce fuel has pushed up food prices to a certain extent. contributed to famine in less developed areas.

For example, Brazil, a big agricultural country, has a large number of poor people facing the problem of hunger. Brazil happens to be one of the two largest producers of ethanol fuel in the world, and a large number of crops are used as raw materials for industrial production rather than food rations. This kind of social contradiction that "farmers can not eat grain from the fields" is not the focus of this article, we will not express it, but it should not be difficult to understand.

On the other hand, traditional biomass fuel is not really renewable fuel. It is a very common misunderstanding to regard biomass fuel as a large category of renewable energy. Crop cultivation in modern society is a real high-emission industry, is one of the main sources of global carbon emissions, and has little to do with the word "environmental protection".

Whether ethanol gasoline in the United States and Brazil is environmentally friendly has always been controversial. A large number of corn or sugar cane planting will make the land use single, there is no vegetation diversity, and will use a large number of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides and other substances. The biomass diesel used in the EU also uses a large number of vegetable oils such as rapeseed oil, palm oil and soybean oil as raw materials, rather than real agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry waste reuse [11]. Perhaps the emission targets of blended fuels used in Europe do decline, but in essence, they only transfer environmental risks to developing countries, especially the calculation of full-link carbon emissions is not accurate enough, lack of attention to environmental changes in the origin of raw materials, and a large amount of greenhouse gases are even directly ignored. Criticizing European formalism or hypocrisy on this issue is not malicious slander.

In South-East Asia, for example, in order to meet the demand for palm oil in Europe, native forests have been cut down on a large scale and species diversity has been destroyed [22]. This kind of industry, which appears to be environmentally friendly but not environmentally friendly in nature, is not uncommon in the context of carbon neutralization. Here is another example.

Under continued environmental pressure, Europe is also tightening restrictions on traditional biomass fuels. The revised renewable energy directive (RED II) clearly stipulates that the proportion of biomass fuel used as raw materials for food and feed crops in the final consumption of transportation cannot increase by 1% compared with 2020, and the maximum cannot exceed 7%. The proportion of raw materials with significant environmental risks (such as palm oil) should not exceed 2019 and should be reduced to 0% by 2030 [23].

Even if we do not criticize its potential moral problems, this model is not good enough from the perspective of capital markets. The current global capital market is paying more attention to the sustainable development ability of enterprises. ESG evaluation system is the embodiment of this concept, and is more widely used to measure the value of enterprises, and incorporated into the investment framework. Obviously, a company that is very suspicious in terms of social responsibility, environmental protection and morality will not be favored by this investment concept, especially the original intention of the development of biofuel enterprises is to promote environmental protection. this stain will only more obviously interfere with the company's development potential in the capital market.

Generally speaking, traditional biomass fuel has some structural defects, and its long-term growth potential faces greater policy risks, which is not in line with the mainstream development concept of the international community, and will face greater uncertainty in the future.

The problems of new biomass fuels are more diverse.

In addition to the restrictions on processing and use, the business model of the fuel produced by straw, animal fat and waste oil is not perfect. The sources of these wastes are often extremely scattered, the collection is lack of standardization, and the quality of raw materials is uneven, resulting in downstream enterprises to bear a lot of additional costs in the collection of raw materials. The conversion efficiency of superimposed waste is not high, and different technical routes face different technical bottlenecks, which lead to high prices and further lower the economic benefits of biomass fuel. For this kind of biomass fuel, only to improve the refining process is not enough, but also need to establish a more effective raw material collection process, it is possible to establish a more feasible business model to achieve large-scale production.

Although the current demand for biomass fuel, especially biomass diesel, is quite strong, the demand is still driven by policy documents and rigid environmental requirements. For consumer enterprises, biofuels are still closer to pure policy costs, and the willingness to take the initiative to apply them is not strong; for production enterprises, the business model of biomass fuels is not good enough, and their production and pricing are very dependent on government subsidies and lack of market-oriented conditions.

If we want to promote the application of renewable biomass fuel more widely, the sustainable concept at the environmental level is obviously not enough, and the industry also needs a business model that is also sustainable in terms of economy. such as the establishment of large-scale recycling enterprises, the establishment of a market-oriented recycling system with commercial value and so on. Simply forcing companies to accept additional costs and relying on government economic incentives will not support the long-term development of renewable biofuels.

The sustainability of solid formed particles is also very questionable and is often regarded as a typical biomass fuel full of political color. Although wood particles can be produced with agricultural by-products as raw materials, the production capacity of this model is limited, so it is feasible to be used as a household fuel, and it is almost impossible to support industrial production or large-scale residential heating.

To meet the broader energy needs, some manufacturers even use trees directly as raw materials to produce pellet fuel, which is quite bizarre. The environmental logic of producing biomass fuel from wood is that although there are carbon emissions in the process of combustion, through proper and carefully calculated management, part of the species can be cut down to keep the total amount of carbon stored in trees stable. achieve book figures of carbon neutralization.

There is no doubt that this model is not persuasive enough. Some people claim that pellet fuel is expensive and have to pay large subsidies to energy companies, while researchers say that burning is concentrated emissions, trees need cycles to grow, and burning trees can be environmentally friendly is a word game. As for enterprises being exposed to be cut down secretly, it happens from time to time. There are a large number of objections, in short, the solid molding particle route is not bad, but there must be a suitable source, at least the current model is not established. On the other hand, the industry itself demonstrates that there is no problem with the model from many angles, and our high standards and strict requirements affirm environmental protection, and so on. In short, no one can convince the other, this situation is bad for the development of the industry, and the tightening of biodiesel-style policy is likely to be devastating.

From a policy point of view, biomass fuel also lacks the basis for rapid development.

Limited by policy concerns, technical capabilities, hot spots of renewable energy industry and resource allocation and other factors, not only biomass fuel, the development of the whole field of bioenergy in China lags behind. It is inferior to renewable energy such as photovoltaic, wind power and hydrogen energy, which have attracted wide attention. On the other hand, the lack of technical capacity, the lack of talent reserve and the weak industrial foundation in turn limit the ability of biomass energy to obtain social capital and policy tilt. There are some problems in the new energy industry, such as inadequate planning, inconsistent local goals, inadequate implementation of safeguard measures, imperfect certification system and so on. Underdeveloped and uncompetitive biomass energy can only be adversely affected in this process. As for the specific non-electricity applications of the lack of specific policies, the lack of economic incentives and other shackles on industrial development, not to mention.

In short, a thousand words about biofuels can be summed up into one sentence: the revolution has not yet succeeded, and comrades still need to work hard.

References:

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This article comes from the official account of Wechat: fruit Shell hard Technology (ID:guokr233), author: Chen Qianlei

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