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This article comes from the official account of Wechat: SF Chinese (ID:kexuejiaodian), author: SF

The temperature rising rate of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is about three times the average speed of the world, and it is a hot spot of biodiversity conservation in the world. The forest area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased by 2763 square kilometers between 2010 and 2020, and 11.4 times that figure from 2020 to 2100 in order to control global warming.

Wen Jing | Wen Jing

Picture: pixabay, unsplash

2 ℃ and 1.5C temperature control targets in 2015, the Paris Climate change Conference adopted the Paris Agreement and launched an unprecedented global effort to mitigate climate change, with the goal of limiting global warming to no more than 2 ℃ above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Parties must update their climate change mitigation commitments within the first five years after 2015 and review these climate commitments every five years thereafter.

By the end of the 26th United Nations Climate change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021, a total of 154parties had notified new or updated climate commitments. The Glasgow Climate Convention agreed at COP26 further sets a higher goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃.

Recently, researchers from the State key Laboratory of Surface processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing normal University, based on COP26 data and the current situation of land types on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, simulated the area change of various land types on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau up to 2100 with or without a temperature change control target of less than 2 ℃. The results are posted on iScience.

The forest area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau needs to be increased by 11.4 times. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the "third pole of the earth" behind the North Pole and South Pole, is a place where climate change occurs rapidly, and the rate of temperature rise is about three times the average rate of the world. Unlike the Arctic and Antarctica, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a hot spot for biodiversity conservation in the world because it provides human beings with a variety of ecosystem services, especially water resources. Known as the Asian water tower, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the birthplace of Asia's nine largest rivers, providing a reliable water supply for nearly 2 billion people (1/4 of the world's population).

According to GlobeLand30, the forest area on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau decreased by 3345 square kilometers from 2008 to 2010, while the situation of forest loss was reversed after the state issued the Xizang Ecological Security Barrier Protection and Construction Plan (2011-2030) and the Regional Ecological Construction and Environmental Protection Plan on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (2010-2030), and the forest area on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased by 2763 square kilometers from 2010 to 2020.

The researchers estimate that in order to control temperature changes within 2 ℃, the forest area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau should increase by 9.4%, or 31405 square kilometers, from 2020 to 2100, which is 11.4 times the increase in forest area in the decade from 2010 to 2020, and even larger than the land area of Belgium. In order to control the temperature change within 1.5 ℃, more efforts are needed.

A) 2100 Qinghai-Tibet Plateau land type simulation map without temperature control target scenario, b) 2100 Qinghai-Tibet plateau land type simulation map of ℃ control target scenario; picture source: iScience Yangtze River source region is a key region the Yangtze River source region accounts for 16.8% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area. The study shows that the area change rate of land system types in the source region of the Yangtze River should reach 3.9%, that is, 20030 square kilometers of "grassland", "wasteland" and "arable land" must be transformed into "forest" in order to make the heating limit of 2 ℃ possible in 2100.

The researchers also found that the medium-density grassland in the source region of the Yangtze River is the largest source of forest area increase. Therefore, the researchers believe that it is necessary to expand the jurisdiction of Sanjiangyuan National Park, and the purpose of the national park should be not only a protected area and a grassland restoration area, but also planned afforestation on medium-density grassland.

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