Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

According to news in the morning of April 18, Beijing time, it is reported that the US streaming giant Netflix is about to release its financial results, and whether its membership is growing or declining has attracted outside attention. The latest forecasts from Wall Street analysts show that Netflix may add about 2 million paying members in the first quarter of this year. A message that investors are very concerned about is whether Netflix's subsequent reduction in membership fees and the introduction of low-cost members with advertisements can attract consumers to re-register as members.

Netflix lost 200000 members in the first quarter of last year, but membership growth resumed in the second half of last year, but at a much slower rate than it used to be. In this context, Netflix can only focus on how to get more membership increments from the 100 million viewers around the world who "take advantage of watching videos."

Netflix has cracked down on password-sharing violations in some countries, banning non-member family members from using other family accounts to watch videos for free. In the view of some analysts, this behavior will cause consumers to abandon Netflix services in the short term, but in the future, if the conditions are right, these users may still sign up for paid members.

Barton Crockett, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, said Netflix's crackdown on account sharing will be materially positive for the second quarter of this year, with the platform likely to add 1000 new paying members.

Refinitiv, a US financial institution, surveyed 16 Wall Street analysts who followed Netflix, and their average forecast for Netflix's second-quarter net increase was 3.43 million. Compared with a drop of 970000 in the second quarter of last year, the situation will be much better.

Netflix is likely to gain a net 2.07 million members in the first quarter, up from 200000 in the same period last year, according to analysts. It should be pointed out that Netflix officials have since stopped publishing forecasts for the increase or decrease in membership.

Analysts expect Netflix's revenue to grow 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, the second slowest quarterly growth in the company's history. Netflix's revenue grew by less than 2% in the fourth quarter of last year, the worst on record.

Geoffrey Securities in the United States pointed out in an analysis report that the main problem with Netflix in the first quarter of this year was the lack of major new dramas, but some non-English stock episodes performed well on demand, such as the South Korean revenge-themed TV series Dark Glory and the third season of the Mexican TV series Queen of the South.

Netflix has always been the market leader in streaming, but now faces fierce rivals, including Disney, Amazon and Warner Bros. Discovery. Last year, Amazon Video replaced Netflix as the leader in the US streaming market, according to Parks, a US professional consulting firm.

Warner Bros. Discovery has previously announced that it will launch a new video service called Max on May 23, which will integrate scripted film and television content on the HBO Max platform (that is, based on the script) and Discovery's Reality Show programming.

In terms of advertising revenue, Netflix has refused to cut in ads for many years, but in November last year, the company sought a breakthrough by launching a low-cost advertising membership in 12 countries where users need to put up with some ads for $6.99 a month (currently about 48 yuan). Prior to this, Disney's Hulu and Disney +, as well as the above-mentioned HBO Max have launched advertising low-price members.

Antenna, a US social media analysis company, pointed out in a research report last month that the importance of advertising has been growing for US first-tier streaming platforms, which has become an important strategy for them to expand their revenue.

In 2020, only one out of every five new video members signed up was an advertising low-cost member, but last year, 1/3 of new members were advertising members, the company said.

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