Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

According to the statistics of the Federation of passengers, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 27.6% by 2022, that is to say, almost one in four new vehicles is new energy. It can be seen that the domestic new energy vehicle market has grown to a certain height. With the end of the "national subsidy", Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, recently confirmed to the media that the Federation has put forward a proposal to the relevant state departments to merge the blue card and the green card, and is expected to become a reality in the next two years.

As soon as the news came out, it triggered a heated discussion in the industry, and some people in the industry even said that "as soon as the domestic new energy has just become competitive, it is necessary to remove the oxygen from the domestic new energy vehicles."

Is this statement accurate? Is the new license policy good news or bad news? Will the market of new energy vehicles really be affected? To what extent will it be affected? These are all the contents that this article wants to discuss.

1. The exclusive license system for new energy vehicles with the same power and oil and electricity was launched in April 2016, which is used to distinguish and identify new energy vehicles. Since December of the same year, it was first launched on a pilot basis in Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Jinan and Shenzhen. Later, it was introduced to the whole country, covering all cities in the country in the first half of 2018.

In many places across the country, green cards enjoy all kinds of preferential treatment. First of all, the most direct is the purchase tax relief. This is a real benefit. The purchase tax rate is 10% of the ticket price excluding tax. For a 200000 car, the purchase tax is about 17600. At present, the national policy of tax relief for the purchase of new energy vehicles is up to 2023, but it is not known whether it will be extended after the expiration.

Secondly, policy support should be given to new energy vehicles. For example, Beijing has a separate lottery for new energy vehicles, while Shanghai has a direct free license. In the auction of individual non-commercial bus quota in Shanghai in January this year, the lowest transaction price for a Shanghai card was 92400 yuan, with an average transaction price of 92497 yuan. In other words, giving away a license plate when buying a new energy car means saving nearly 100000 of the fuel license auction fee, which smells good for consumers.

The same is true of Guangzhou, one of the cities most open to new energy vehicles. Previously, all pure electric and plug-in can enjoy a free green card, and there is no total limit. In some cities with separate traffic restrictions, such as Chengdu and Chongqing, green cards also enjoy unlimited traffic restrictions. In addition, including parking concessions and all kinds of tax green cards, it can be said that green cards are to a large extent one of the core driving forces for consumers to buy new energy vehicles.

But it also brings some problems. On the one hand, it leads to the increasing pressure on road traffic in first-tier cities such as Shanghai, on the other hand, "buying a car and giving away a license plate" has affected the transaction price of oil license plate auction in recent years.

According to media reports, Guangzhou license plates were more than 20,000 in 2021, but only 10,000 by the end of last year, which directly halved by 50 percent in one year. Yue An individual license plates fell by nearly 40,000 yuan in four years. The price of fuel vehicle license plates is plummeting not only in Guangzhou, but also in Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities.

As we all know, there has always been a saying that "one tank of fuel, half a box tax" for fuel vehicles in China, but new energy vehicles, especially pure trams, have skillfully avoided these taxes. as a result, the current situation is that fuel truck owners are sharing part of the cost of using new energy vehicles.

In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles are soaring, the sales of fuel vehicles are plummeting, and the inventory of fuel vehicles is getting higher and higher.

To sum up the above points, the call to cancel the green card in the industry is on the rise.

Take the first-tier cities that currently enjoy the most thorough green card treatment as an example. In December last year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic first-tier cities reached 42%. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai last year was close to 48%. It is no wonder that Shanghai has become the first city to remove models such as plug-in and extended range from the green card policy.

Cui Dongshu said earlier: "Shanghai's urban space is small, the previous comprehensive green card policy for new energy vehicles itself is not sustainable, the policy will certainly be significantly tightened in the future, this is an inevitable trend."

There is no subsidy that does not decline. It can be said that the purpose of subsidy is to abolish it. After subsidizing for a period of time, the scale of the industry increases and the cost falls, forming a virtuous circle, which is the best time to withdraw the tangible hand, so that the new energy vehicle is completely equal to the oil truck in terms of policy. after all, the new energy vehicle industry cannot always live on subsidies and preferential policies.

2. Who will bear the pressure? Once the green card is cancelled, it means that the "privilege" of green cars will end, and all policies and regulations will treat all models on the market equally. If the green card is cancelled in the past two years, what will be the impact?

Some people in the industry speculate that once the green card policy is abolished, consumers' car purchase decisions are likely to change. For example, in cities with traffic restrictions, consumers may no longer close their eyes; for car companies, sales and profitability may be greatly challenged.

However, according to the think-tank, it may have an impact in the short term, but not in the long run.

"all preferential measures will be phased out in the long run, but the specific withdrawal time is related to the actual development of the new energy vehicle industry. Similar subsidy withdrawal will have a certain impact, but it is only volatile." Said Wu Yijing, a researcher at the Chebai think Tank Research Institute.

Tuyuan Pexels on the one hand, there are not many cities with real license restrictions in the country, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other eight cities, and Guiyang has withdrawn.

In Guangzhou, the management measure of "four stops and four stops" already treats new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles equally: that is, non-Guangzhou medium and small buses shall not drive for more than four days continuously into the controlled area, and there must be an interval of more than four days for re-entry.

On the other hand, the price of fuel cars continues to fall, which is not as high as in Shanghai. Take Guangzhou as an example, although the starting price has dropped again and again, consumers have not shown great enthusiasm for fuel cars.

Finally, and most crucially, China's new energy car industry has passed the "toddler" stage and can hit the road on its own.

The market share of new energy vehicles has reached 25.6% in 2022. Miao Wei, vice chairman of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is expected to reach 30% this year at the expert media exchange meeting of the China Electric vehicle Association Forum (2023). In other words, new energy vehicles have become a major category in the auto market and have a firm foothold, and the industry demand has gradually changed into a dual-drive trend of technology and policy.

Just like a few years ago, some people thought that if cities do not give "green cards" to plug-in hybrid cars one after another, plug-in hybrid cars will not sell. But in the eyes of consumers, plug-in hybrid cars are cost-effective even without all kinds of discounts. Fuel consumption is less than 1.0 displacement fuel car, the price is equivalent to 1.5 engine fuel car, power more than 3.0 liter V6 fuel car, daily commute, use electricity to save fuel money, run long distance fuel burning no mileage anxiety.

However, one point can not be ignored, because it is in a critical period of transition from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. In the past, national subsidies were cancelled, Tesla price cuts continued to squeeze profit margins, and then BYD Qin plus reached less than 100000. If you cancel the green card qualification in the past two years, it may accelerate the reshuffle of the internal market of new energy vehicles, which will have a great impact on the third-and fourth-tier new forces that are full of policy dividends, but lack cash flow and profitability, cost reduction capacity and core technology. If we cannot improve our competitiveness in the past two years, it will be very dangerous after the green card is cancelled.

3. Getting the market back on track in fact, it is not only the tightening of domestic green card policy, but also the prosperity and subsidy decline of the global new energy vehicle development market, which has become the consensus of the global automobile industry.

On June 14 last year, Britain announced the elimination of 1500 pounds in subsidies for new energy vehicles, which lasted for 11 years. Starting from January 1, 2023, consumers in Norway need to pay VAT when they buy pure electric vehicles priced above 500000 Norwegian kroner, which marks the end of the VAT exemption policy for some high-priced models. The German government plans to reduce pure tram subsidies in all price ranges from 2023. For example, the subsidy for pure trams of 40,000 euros or less is reduced from 6000 euros to 4500 euros, and the quota for pure trams with a price of 40, 000 to 65000 euros is reduced from 5000 euros to 3000 euros. Models above 65000 euros are not subsidized. At the same time, plug-in hybrid models will no longer enjoy subsidies.

In China, the financial subsidy for new energy vehicles also completed its historical mission and bid farewell to the market at the end of last year. Some time ago, Hainan issued a "highway mileage toll system" to solicit opinions. It is mentioned in the opinion that Beidou navigation will be installed in the car and road maintenance fees will be collected from new energy models by recording mileage. From this point of view, new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will reach the same starting line sooner or later.

First of all, it helps to get the market back on track: just as the national subsidy will be cancelled, the cancellation of the green card will only further push the electric car to the market. Xue Xu, secretary-general of the Marketing expert Committee of the China Market Association (Automobile), said: "globally, market-driven has become the real driving force for the development of new energy vehicles, and market orientation is the right direction for the sustainable development of new energy vehicles."

Wu Yijing said: "abolishing the green card is definitely a gradual process, but not necessarily in the short term." Regulation may lengthen the "examination period" of policy withdrawal in order to observe the effect of weakening the exit one by one.

Second, the cancellation of the green card will force new energy car companies to carry out technological innovation. In the past, the reason why new energy vehicles relied on green cards was mainly because the technical aspects were not in place and the efficiency was not as good as that of oil vehicles. Once the green card is cancelled, if new energy vehicles want to survive, they can survive only by improving their car efficiency and supporting services.

For example, increase investment in research and development, reduce the cost of cars as far as possible, solve key technical problems, optimize services, let more consumers feel the high quality of life brought by new energy vehicles, and form a differentiated competitive advantage with fuel vehicles.

[full text reference]

[1] the Federation of passengers proposes to abolish the "green card". Is the new energy vehicle still fragrant? ", Observer Network, Jersey Li

[2] "if you buy a car and don't give a license, how can you plug in in Shanghai? New Energy Automobile News

[3] "halved by 50% a year, the fuel license plate changed from" hot "to" hot ", micro story, Wu Jing

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: che Bai think Tank (ID:EV100_Plus). Author: Zhou Shuangjiang.

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