Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com March 28 news, TrendForce Ji Bang Consulting released a report today, because some suppliers such as Micron (Micron), SK Hynix (SK hynix) have started DRAM production reduction, compared with the first quarter DRAM average price decline of nearly 20%, it is expected that the second quarter decline will converge to 10.15%. However, as the recovery in demand in the second half of 2023 is still unclear, the downward cycle of DRAM average prices has not yet ended, and with the current high water level in the original factory inventory, it is not possible for subsequent contract prices to reverse unless there is a larger production reduction.

The summary report of CTOnews.com is as follows:

As for PC DRAM, as the buyer has greatly reduced the purchase volume for three consecutive quarters, the buyer's PC DRAM inventory is about 913 weeks, while the original PC DRAM factory has reduced production. TrendForce Jibang Consulting predicts that the mainstream DDR4 8GB module will still decline by more than 10% in the second quarter, but perhaps some PC OEM is willing to increase the purchase volume of DRAM based on the consideration that the price is already on the low side, but whether it can reduce the high inventory pressure on the supply side remains to be seen. It is estimated that the average price of PC DRAM will decline by about 1015% in the second quarter.

As for Server DRAM, the demand for servers was reduced by OEM and cloud service providers, which further led to the weak kinetic energy of buyers in pulling goods. However, the uncertainty in the consumer market has made the original factory continue to increase the proportion of Server DRAM production, so the inventory accumulated quarter by quarter has become a burden. Although the original factory has generally reduced capacity utilization, this has little effect on prices. It is estimated that the average price of Server DRAM in the second quarter will fall by 1318% from the previous quarter.

In terms of Mobile DRAM, although smartphone brand inventory has returned to relatively healthy levels, it remains conservative about production plans, so buyer demand for Mobile DRAM remains weak in the second quarter. However, high inventories put great selling pressure on the original factory. Even if the original factory has reduced production of Mobile DRAM, it is still difficult to change the current oversupply situation. It is estimated that the average price of Mobile DRAM will continue to decline in the second quarter, but the decline is expected to converge to 10.15%.

In terms of Graphics DRAM, the buyer's stock-keeping attitude is conservative, and the recent AI issue has not significantly stimulated demand growth. In terms of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb, due to generally conservative purchasing power, the average price of Graphics DRAM is expected to fall by 1015% in the second quarter. It is worth noting that at this stage, the supply side coincides with the transition from 8Gb to 16Gb, Samsung will end the life cycle of GDDR6 8Gb products at the end of this year, and there will be only SK Hynix supply from 2024 onwards, based on the reduction of suppliers, it is expected to slow down the violent degree of Graphics DRAM price fluctuations.

In terms of Consumer DRAM, in the field of Netcom, where demand is relatively robust, as orders are delivered one after another, operators gradually slow down their pulling power, and generally take a conservative view of the growth of Netcom-related demand this year, applications, including TV, are unable to effectively support Consumer DRAM market demand. Although the original factory has successively taken measures to reduce production, the market supply still exceeds demand, and prices will continue to fall. It is estimated that the average Consumer DRAM price will fall by 10.15% month-on-month in the second quarter.

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