Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

This year's most eye-catching tropical cyclone, Freddy, is still roaming the Mozambique Channel in southeastern Africa. More than a month ago, on February 6, when the Australian Meteorological Office BoM named the storm in its area of responsibility, no one thought it would break so many records.

To the left of the early Freddie, there is another cyclone, Dingani, and east of Australia, Gabriel (photo source: NOAA official Twitter) Freddie is a southern Indian Ocean cyclone, which is essentially the same as a typhoon, except that in the southern hemisphere, it rotates clockwise in the opposite direction to the typhoon. It was generated on February 4, officially named by the Australian Meteorological Office on February 6, first moved southwest, and then made a slight turning point under the influence of another cyclone, "Dingani". Three times it strengthened into a very strong tropical cyclone (wind force 17, equivalent to a super typhoon in China) and then weakened, successively landed in Madagascar and Mozambique, and weakened into a residual low on February 24. Surprisingly, the haunted residual low pressure hovered in Mozambique for nearly a week and then retreated to the Mozambique Channel, successfully "renewed" and gradually intensified, reaching the tropical storm level again on March 4 and continuing to circle in the Mozambique Channel. On the 6th, it approached Madagascar again and turned northwest towards northern Mozambique.

Born in the waters of southern Indonesia, the zigzag "Freddie", the color of the track points in the picture shows the intensity, pink and red are the strongest, blue and purple are the weakest (source: Zoom Earth screenshot) look at its enchanting tracks along the way, it can be described as a "nine-turn typhoon"! According to current forecasts, Freddie will weaken after landing in Mozambique. However, after this landing, "Freddie" will not go too far inland, and there is still a chance to return to the sea "resurrection". In this way, the wind and rain in Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and other countries will continue, and the disaster losses will be difficult to estimate.

British Weather Channel (Weather Channel) precipitation Forecast (https://weather.com/ storms / hurricane / news / 2023-03-06-tropical-cyclone-freddy-mozambique-madagascar-record) as of March 11, Beijing time, Cyclone Freddy has broken the record for the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the history of meteorological observation (more than 35 days). It was 31 days before, and the transition to an extratropical cyclone does not count), and it is still in the process of refreshing. The previous record was held by Hurricane / Typhoon John in 1994. From August 11 to September 10, 1994, Hurricane John, which formed in the waters of southern Mexico, crossed the Pacific Ocean all the way and became Typhoon John in the Western Pacific Ocean. After several cycles, it remained tropical for 31 days. Finally, it transformed into an extratropical cyclone in the waters south of Alaska between September 10 and 11, and then moved northward to affect Alaska. Unexpectedly, such an outrageous longevity record is still ruthlessly crushed by Freddie.

Hurricane / Typhoon John track Map

"John (1994)" ID photo, taken in the waters south of Hawaii, "Freddie" broke much more than that, can be called a "record shredder." It is currently the only tropical cyclone that has experienced six rapid intensities in its life history (with winds of 55 km / h in 24 hours), compared with four previous records. three Northern Hemisphere storms (2018 Hurricane Norman, 2005 Hurricane Emily, 1994 Hurricane John) are juxtaposed. Freddie is a blockbuster record.

"Freddie" reached its peak intensity in the vast Indian Ocean. According to the track data set provided by IBTrACS and RAMMB, the track length of "Freddie" has exceeded 12500 kilometers, spanning 4 Earths. Globally, this length is second only to the record of 13850 km (excluding tracks after denatured temperate cyclones) in John John (1994). It was also the first storm to cross the entire Indian Ocean (from the western end of the Australian coastline to Mozambique) since 2000, previously achieved by Cyclone Ceuta Hudah and Cyclone Lyon-Irene Leon-Eline.

Freddie also significantly set a new record for the cumulative cyclone energy index (ACE) in the southern hemisphere. the previous record was set by the Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone Vantara Fantala in 2016. Freddy's ACE has exceeded 80, and is likely to exceed the global record set by the 2006 Pacific Hurricane / Typhoon Iokai Ioke. This is a new world record!

"Freddie" attacked a school in Mozambique (photo source: https://news.un.org/ en / story / 2023 United.com News 03Accord 1134262)

The trajectory and forecast of "Freddie" (from the Reunion branch of the French Meteorological Agency) is different from that of John (1994), which only destroys part of the military facilities on Johnston Atoll, an uninhabited island. Freddie is innocent in autumn in the vast Indian Ocean, but once it approaches Africa, its ferocious nature is revealed. Madagascar and Mozambique, the "least developed countries" hit by storms a few years ago, were unfortunately "patronized" again and again by Freddy. Torrential rains mercilessly destroyed the homes of thousands of people and killed at least 27 people. Next, Freddie will continue to operate near Mozambique for a few more days, and the wind and rain it is carrying is likely to lead to a further increase in the number of casualties. Freddy's disaster severity will determine that it will be "removed" and become a special name for study.

The track diagram of Tropical Storm "Mountain God Son-Tinh" shows that it can be miraculously "resurrected" after surviving on land. Such examples are rare in tropical storms, but they are not without precedent. For example, Tropical Storm "Mountain God Son-Tinh" entered Vietnam in 2018 and returned to the Beibu Gulf to "Resurrection". In 2021, Gulf of Mexico Hurricane "Grace Grace" forced its way through the highlands of central Mexico and "resurrected" in the Pacific Ocean. Become Tropical Storm Marty Marty (even the gender of the name has changed). In fact, due to the particularity of this situation, there are disputes in the academic circles about the tracking and identification of tropical storm residual depression, and the identification standards of meteorological departments in different countries are also different. If the World Meteorological Organization does not recognize the survival process of Freddie on land, although it has not been renamed after its resurrection, it may still be recognized as a different system, resulting in the record not counting. It is necessary to have a unified standard when comparing different systems, and so is the determination of cyclone life. If the life standard of a tropical cyclone is "from the formation of a tropical depression to the time when the system is completely dissipated or completely transformed into a temperate cyclone, it is not completely dissipated as long as the structure of the system can be traced." then the named "Freddie" whose life has exceeded 32 days on February 6 is a well-deserved longevity champion since there have been observational records. If the lifespan criterion is "the total duration of maintaining tropical depression (wind force 12m / s) and above and having a significant circulation center", then "Freddie" is likely to be inferior to "John" or directly identified as two systems. Ranking has fallen sharply. This meteorological record will eventually be studied by WMO experts to determine whether it is valid after Freddie dissipates completely.

At present, the simulation of land surface in various mainstream meteorological models is not as accurate as that of ocean surface, so people do not know enough about cyclones that reside on land for a long time. With global warming, the relatively gentle coastal humid plain may be able to support the long-term survival of tropical cyclones, which is also a research point that scholars need to pay attention to in the future.

references

1. Wikipedia entries: Accumulated Cyclone Energy, Cyclone Freddy, Hurricane John, Hurricane Ioke, Rapid intensification, List of tropical cyclone records

2.Zoom Earth

3. Https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-to-become-the-longest-lasting-tropical-cyclone-on-record-southeast-africa/

4. Https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-breaks-records-lashing-madagascar

5. Https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-may-set-new-record

6. Title picture from CNN

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: stone popular Science Studio (ID:Dr__Stone), by Sikong.

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