Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

On March 12, several countries in North America, Europe and Asia have set targets to increase production and sales of electric vehicles, and hope that all new cars produced by 2040 will be electric vehicles. However, the latest industry survey found that most people are pessimistic about whether the goal can be achieved, and only 39% believe that such a vision will become a reality.

According to the climate target set by the US government, half of all new cars and light trucks sold in the country should be zero-emission vehicles by 2030. Among them, California has set 2035 as the deadline for banning the sale of fuel cars. In some European countries, 2040 seems to be the end of fuel vehicles, and Britain wants to ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030. Carmakers on all continents are scrambling to move towards electrification as they begin to phase out internal combustion engine car production lines.

But a joint survey of the auto industry by electrical equipment maker ABB Robotics and Automotive Manufacturing Solutions magazine shows that people are pessimistic about whether these goals can be achieved. When asked whether it is realistic to achieve the goal of producing 100 per cent electric vehicles in different regions between 2030 and 2040, only 11 per cent said yes, while less than 10 per cent of European respondents thought the goal could be achieved. By contrast, 12 per cent of respondents in North America and 17 per cent in Asia held similar views.

Another 28% replied, "I think the above goals can be achieved, but the process is not easy." This leads more than half of respondents to believe that it is too early to achieve full adoption of electric vehicles between 2030 and 2040. 41% of respondents said: "it is possible to achieve the goal, but the time will not be ahead of schedule." In the end, 18% said it was still a long way off that fuel vehicles would be replaced.

People who work at second-tier car suppliers are the most optimistic, with more than 50 per cent believing that a full shift to electric vehicle production is possible, compared with only 1/3 of respondents in other groups. These groups include original equipment manufacturers, design and engineering service providers, first-tier suppliers, tertiary suppliers, software and information technology service providers and logistics service providers.

There is no doubt that the biggest obstacles to achieving 100% electric vehicle production are the supply chain and cost. Among them, 19% of the respondents believe that the establishment of a new battery supply chain is the biggest obstacle. We have seen this impact. For example, the shortage of battery supply has seriously limited the development of Toyota's electric vehicle business, while Ford has got enough battery supply. In 2023, production of the Ford Mustang Mach-E-E tripled and that of the Fmuri 150 Lightning doubled.

Just as electric vehicles are significantly more expensive than fuel vehicles of similar size and configuration, the construction of new electric vehicle production facilities requires a lot of capital investment, and 16% of respondents believe that high cost is the second biggest obstacle to achieving 100% electric vehicle production.

Other concerns include shortages of raw materials and infrastructure, insufficient grid capacity, lack of green energy and lack of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. Concerns about the performance of electric vehicles, lack of demand and the high cost of buying new electric vehicles are also cited as reasons for pessimism.

Industry respondents were also asked what they thought was the biggest obstacle to the popularity of electric vehicles, with the lack of charging infrastructure at the top of the list (26 per cent), followed by 17 per cent who mentioned that new electric vehicles were too expensive. North American consumer resistance to electric cars is expected to be a bigger negative factor than cost than respondents in Europe or Asia.

The good news is that 80% of respondents believe that sustainable car manufacturing will be possible. Of these, 51 per cent said "this goal can be achieved, but it will not be easy", while another 29 per cent said it was possible, "but very difficult".

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