Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Musk drew a cake of the future, but the market only wanted the meat in front of it.

Yesterday was Tesla's first Investor Day, and Musk showed his vision of new energy to the world. But it seems that Tesla's investors are not convinced, they did not wait for the short-term positive factors-entry-level new models. Tesla shares fell 5 per cent in after-hours trading after the investor activity and closed down 6 per cent today.

Musk at Tesla's investor activities although Musk and California Governor Newsom have just announced the establishment of Tesla engineering headquarters in Silicon Valley, this does not mean that Tesla's headquarters will move back to California. The main purpose of setting up an engineering R & D headquarters in Silicon Valley is to recruit technical personnel from Silicon Valley nearby. Tesla's global headquarters is still located in the super factory in Austin, Texas, where the investor day is also held.

The theme of this event is "the third chapter of the grand plan" (Master Plan Part 3). At the press conference, Musk focused on his long-term business plans for the next decade, focusing on a grand vision of global sustainable energy. According to his idea, the audience of this conference is not only Tesla investors, but also "investors who pay attention to the earth".

The first chapter of the grand plan was released in 2006, when Tesla was a start-up, focusing on Tesla's vision for the development of high-end electric cars and the launch of affordable models in the future. With the help of investment and loans from Toyota, Mercedes-Benz and the US government, Tesla went through the most difficult start-up stage of capital, released and delivered Roadster and Model S, successfully listed on the stock market, and achieved the goal of the first chapter.

Ten years later, in 2016, Musk released Chapter 2 of the Grand Plan, which mainly includes four major goals: a solution that combines solar roofs with energy storage batteries, a comprehensive choice of electric models to meet the needs of the mainstream market, and the development of safer self-driving capabilities through large-scale fleet learning. make cars a money-making tool in their spare time (self-driving taxi fleet). Prior to that, Musk led Tesla in the acquisition of Solarcity, a solar company he founded.

Although the four goals of the second chapter of the grand plan have not been fully realized, the gradual implementation of the first three parts has been enough to cause Tesla's share price to soar wildly in 2019, becoming the world's number one auto stock, and its market capitalization has even broken through the trillion-dollar mark at one point. Musk's own wealth has also increased nearly tenfold, making him the richest man in the world.

If the first two chapters of the grand plan still focus on the Tesla products themselves, then the vision of the third chapter focuses on global sustainable development and energy issues. Musk is trying to come up with his own solution to the world's biggest crisis, and he also hopes to bring Tesla a new and huge room for growth.

As we all know, Musk has always believed in the crisis of population collapse. Although the population of the earth has exceeded 8 billion, he still believes that the biggest threat to the earth is not lack of resources, but that the birth rate is too low. Over the past few years, Musk has been warning about the demographic problems facing major countries such as the United States, Japan and China. He is also "doing it" to create a population and has a cumulative total of nine children.

Tesla's sustainable energy vision sustainable energy planning is undoubtedly the most important crisis facing the world. Over the past year, geopolitical conflicts have led to a surge in global crude oil and natural gas prices, major countries are facing an energy supply crisis, and people are facing high heating travel costs, forcing them to re-increase the exploitation of fossil fuels, dragging down the global climate change process. As Musk said at the press conference, 80% of the world's energy still comes from fossil fuels, and only 1 / 3 of the energy is effectively used.

Musk believes that none of this is a problem, and that he has a solution to the world's most urgent crisis. He said at the beginning: "there is a clear path to the sustainable energy development of the planet. We do not need to destroy our natural homes, we do not need to return to simple life, we do not need to give up electricity, and we do not need to endure cold or difficult conditions. We can support a civilized society larger than the earth, sustainably supporting human beings of well over 8 billion people."

So, what kind of solution is given in Chapter 3 of the Grand Plan? According to Musk's vision, achieving a sustainable energy economy requires energy storage 240TWH (TWh, equivalent to 1 billion kilowatt hours), renewable power 30TW, manufacturing investment of US $10 trillion, less than half the energy consumption of conventional fuels, less than 0.2 per cent of land and only 10 per cent of global GDP investment last year.

He said at a press conference that in the future, all cars in the world will be electric, and even aircraft and ships can be driven by sustainable energy, using sustainable energy to support the global grid, and so on. Musk mentioned that Tesla will then issue a white paper that will outline a clear path for the planet's sustainable energy.

Specific energy business plans involving Tesla include: increasing battery production to power the grid with sustainable fuel; planning to achieve 100% sustainable energy by 2050; and not only providing charging services for Tesla's streetcar. it will also be used for utilities and energy storage systems; building a global electric fleet of 85 million vehicles, and so on.

Tesla also announced at an investor event that Tesla's energy products have exceeded the electricity consumption of all Tesla factories and trams in the past nine years. Last year, Tesla's energy products had a charging capacity of 9 TWH, providing 1.5 million overcharging services per week.

As a project for Tesla to open up energy services, Tesla has gradually begun to open up overcharging services to non-Tesla users in the United States. Non-Tesla owners can either pay on a pay-per-view basis or pay $12.99 a month for overcharged membership service with a discount of $0.12 per kilowatt-hour charge. In addition, Tesla also plans to launch a "Tesla Electric" service to Tesla owners in Texas this summer, which can be recharged unlimited at home at night for $30 a month.

Zhu Xiaotong came to the stage to explain Tesla's production capacity progress and annual sales of 20 million vehicles, although the "Grand Plan Chapter 3" conference focused on sustainable energy planning, but Tesla also released some updates about the current business: Tesla's 4 million car was offline at the Texas factory yesterday; currently, the super factory can assemble a car every 45 seconds. The new Mexican superfactory is located in Monterrey, the capital of the state of Leon, and plans to produce the next generation of platform models.

It is worth mentioning that the part about the capacity of Tesla super factory was expounded by Zhu Xiaotong, vice president of the world and head of Greater China. Zhu Xiaotong won Musk's trust because of his outstanding performance in the Chinese market and the Shanghai factory, and at the end of last year, Zhu Xiaotong was transferred from China to the US headquarters to be responsible for global products and manufacturing, taking on the important task of improving the production capacity of super factories.

It took Tesla 12 years to produce the 1 million car, 18 months to produce the 2 million, 11 months to produce the 3 million, and less than seven months to produce the 4 million, Zhu said. He also said Tesla plans to build new tram and battery factories while increasing the annual capacity of existing factories.

At the Tesla investor conference, Musk also put forward Tesla's specific performance target to reach 20 million pairs of sales by 2030. This figure is really surprising, because Toyota, the world leader in car sales, currently sells only 1000 million pairs of cars a year, while Tesla delivered only 1.31 million vehicles last year.

Musk believes that Tesla only needs to launch 10 models to achieve this seemingly elusive goal. At present, Tesla has only four models for sale, and the pickup truck Cypertruck has not yet been put into production. By contrast, Toyota Corolla, the world leader in car sales, sells only 1 million vehicles a year.

In addition, Tesla also disclosed information about product costs: the production cost of the Model 3 has been reduced by 30% in the past four years, and the cost of the next-generation electric vehicle will fall further. The vehicle wiring harness from Model S to Model 3 has been reduced by 17 kg, and the humanoid robot released by AI Day has been assembled in the factory.

There is no news of getting started on new models. However, this sustainable energy plan for the next decade does not seem to have moved Tesla's investors. The grand plan outlined on Investor Day does not have the new products that investors want to see or the share buybacks that investors are looking forward to.

At the whole press conference, there was only one message about the new car: the Cybertruck, which was released in 2017, will go into production this year. After Tesla's chief designer Franz voz Holzhausen announced the development, investors' hopes were cut off: the next generation of models is not yet ready to be announced. Then Tesla's share price began to fall directly in after-hours trading.

What on earth are investors expecting? A legendary new model with a low price to be released soon. Despite Tesla's sharp price cuts at the beginning of this year, the cheapest Model 3 still starts at $43000. Musk said in 2017 that the Model 3 would start at $35000, but never made good on his promise. He also said at Battery Day 2020 that he would release an entry-level streetcar for $25000 in the next two or three years, but said last year that he had no plans to do so for the time being.

Investors hope that Musk can release a more people-friendly model as soon as possible, and compete with more and more competitors in the market, such as Hyundai, Volkswagen, Ford and so on. GM will also launch three new electric cars this year, including the Chevrolet Equinox, which will start at $30,000.

Tesla is also facing fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers in China, the world's largest electric car market. In response to questions from the Chinese market after the press conference, Zhu Xiaotong said that as long as Tesla can provide excellent products at a reasonable price, there is no need to worry about demand, and he is not worried about the prospect of competition in the Chinese market.

Investors also want to hear Tesla's improvement in battery life and new battery technology that lasts longer and recharges faster. However, there was no new news in this regard at Tesla's investor activity yesterday. In addition, Tesla did not publish the long-term financial indicators that investors are concerned about at investor activities.

Investors would prefer to hear Mr Musk announce that he will focus on Tesla. Over the past year, he has caused too much controversy and invested too much energy in acquiring and managing Twitter. Now the daily media reports about Musk are mostly about Twitter news, or his controversial remarks. At the end of last year, some unbearable investors already shouted, "Musk either goes back to Tesla or should be dismissed."

Tesla's retail investors have the highest proportion of retail investors looking forward to short-term positivity. overall, brokerages have made positive comments on Tesla's investor activities. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Tesla has demonstrated excellent vertical integration results in investor activities, allowing them to move faster and at a lower cost than their competitors. Considering that the current price of electric cars is still too high, the cost of Tesla's next-generation platform is expected to be reduced by 50%, which will widen the gap with competitors. Morgan Stanley gave Tesla an overweight rating.

But for retail investors, there is no new positive without new models. They are not interested in Musk's "global sustainable energy" pie. They just want to eat the meat in front of them as soon as possible, driving Tesla's share price to continue to rise.

Tesla's share price plunged 65 per cent last year, but Tesla's share price has rebounded significantly by 53 per cent after sharp price cuts and promotions at the start of the year. It is worth mentioning that Tesla's share price is as volatile as 70%, which means that Tesla's share price has fluctuated by 70% in a year, compared with 16% for the S & P 500. Even if it is narrowed down to a few Internet giants, the index of share price volatility is only 44%.

Why does Tesla's share price rise and fall so much? One of the important reasons is that Tesla has the highest proportion of retail investors among Internet companies. Up to 44 per cent of Tesla's outstanding shares are held by retail investors, while the proportion of retail investors among the Internet giants averages 18 per cent.

In an interesting episode, Tesla's investor activities were broadcast live on Musk's Twitter platform in addition to YouTube yesterday. But towards the end of the event, while Musk and a group of executives were answering questions, the live broadcast of Twitter was suddenly interrupted. Tesla had to re-launch a new live broadcast on Twitter to continue to introduce the senior team's question and answer session.

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