Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Investors' daily conjecture

Author | Wang Lei

Editor | on the continent

The new Model 3 is finally coming.

Recently, many overseas netizens have photographed the new Model 3 try. through these camouflaged spy photos, we can see that the body of the new Model 3 has not changed significantly, but the partial design has been adjusted a lot.

Source: Twitter Model 3 is in its seventh year since its debut in 2016. No matter what things look at for a long time will be aesthetic fatigue, even if it was amazing, it is time to make some changes.

It is reported that the focus of the change should be on the manufacturing system, such as reducing the number of internal parts in Model 3 and reducing the complexity of the car body. The display screen valued by Tesla users may also be adjusted. At that time, the appearance, interior decoration and the number of sensors of the modified model may all change.

In addition, Tesla Investment Day will be held in a few days, when the third chapter of Tesla's grand plan-how to move towards a completely sustainable energy path-will be announced. As one of the important days of Tesla's year, investors will not buy it without announcing some big news.

Source: Twitter will unveil Tesla's brand-new models and technologies.

01. The interior is more modern and the cost is lower. According to Tesla's previous changes to the X and S, this new Model 3 will be a medium-term model with little change in appearance, mainly for the front and rear bars, light group and interior adjustment.

Source: Twitter espionage photos show that the camouflage of the new Model 3 vehicle is concentrated on the lower and rear parts of the car as well as the interior. Therefore, the appearance changes of the modified Model 3 will also be concentrated in these three places.

From the rear point of view, the biggest difference in the cash of the new Model 3 lies in the taillight group, and a spoiler design is added to the rear to improve the visual effect of the rear.

Source: in the front part of Twitter, you can find a suspected camera design on the top edge of the headlights, which is also related to the HW 4.0 design that may be used on the modified Model 3, and there is a good chance that new cameras will appear on the headlights or blades to enhance the detection of blind spots.

Source: in the interior section of Twitter, it is clear that Tesla is replacing the wood decoration of Model 3 with ABS-bonded foam nonwovens with significantly lower production costs.

Wood trim has been an important feature of Model 3 since its launch in 2016, never seen on X / S / Y, but it is a bit old-fashioned from today's point of view.

By using fabric instead, Tesla can further reduce manufacturing costs.

In addition, Tesla well-known disclosure god green god revealed that the modified Model 3 may also be equipped with a back row display screen.

Source: Twitter found an interface design similar to a "second display" on the AMD Ryzen processor circuit board of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y that will be revamped.

You know, this is the same AMD processor currently used on Model X and Model S, and the second display of Model X and Y is the entertainment display at the bottom of the back row.

Having a rear display screen is still a big bright spot for Model 3. After all, a rear display screen not only has functional control, but also has some additional entertainment functions, such as playing games and watching movies.

And once the rear display is added, will the Steam games on the new Model S and Model X also be available on the Model3? Of course, the news is uncertain at the moment.

In terms of power, according to the current news, there will be no change, there are still two versions of single motor and dual motor.

From this point of view, in fact, the change in the appearance of the Model 3 is small, and the change in the appearance is only an appetizer for Model 3, and the highlight has to be the brand-new hardware in the car. After all, Tesla Model 3 is also likely to use auxiliary driving hardware Hardware4.0.

Uncover HW4.0 Tesla is most proud of its autopilot and intelligent system, so the new Model 3 may be equipped with auxiliary driving hardware Hardware4.0, let's also focus on understanding.

HW4.0 is the new generation "brain" of Tesla's autopilot. Not long ago, Tesla, the famous revelator and well-known dismantling expert "Green the only", Tesla first revealed Tesla's latest HW4.0 autopilot hardware information.

He directly released a high-definition physical picture of HW 4.0. he also dismantled the product and made a detailed spoiler of HW 4.0in terms of structure.

First of all, from the point of view of the appearance, compared with the slightly larger HW3.0,HW4.0 and began to become regular and flat, the installation point has changed from three to four, and the water-cooled inlet and outlet has also been adjusted.

Source: the hardware interfaces of Twitter have also changed a lot between the two generations. HW3.0 originally has 9 camera interfaces, but HW4.0 has increased to 12. Each socket is marked with the connection location of the camera, such as FmurSVC, LSVC, Rafe, etc., one of which is marked as standby.

Source: it is worth noting on Twitter that there are three SVC marked on the camera interface of HW4.0. According to Tesla EPC, SVC is interpreted as a kind of bumper cover, which also means that there are at least three cameras installed on the front and rear bumper in Tesla's new car, and it is most likely a blind spot camera.

Source: Twitter's additional interface to the cockpit has been upgraded from one of HW3.0 to two, and GPS has been updated to a 3-band GPS module interface for more accurate positioning.

So only from the outside, the two sets of hardware cannot be used in terms of size, shape or interface, which confirms why Musk said that the old Tesla owner may not be able to upgrade the HW3.0 to HW4.0.

Considering the cost and economic benefits of the upgrade, Tesla may not have the idea of upgrading from HW3.0 to HW4.0 services for old car owners.

When we come to the inside of the hardware, according to the high-definition revelation map, we can see that the overall HW4.0 motherboard still uses a symmetrical design, and the configuration is double backup. While the computing power is doubled, one of them can also be used as redundant computing power.

Source: Twitter according to the number of screen printing on the chip surface, the code is H2238, from the HW3.0 chip H1384 manufactured by Samsung, it can be inferred that 4. 0% of the chip is still manufactured by Samsung.

Source: Twitter PCB board, compared with HW3.0, there are also some changes, but according to Green God, it is not as much as expected.

The number of CPU cores of the second-generation FSD has increased from 12 to 20, and is divided into 5 clusters. Each cluster contains 4 CPU cores. The maximum frequency of CPU is 2.35GHz, and the leisure frequency of 1.37GHz GPU remains the same. It is still a RDNA2,28 group computing unit based on AMD, with 2.79GHz main frequency, 3 GPUs, 2.2 GHz working frequency, and the number of trip cores increases from 2 to 3, with the maximum frequency 2.2GHz.

In addition, compared with the APU+GPU on the HW3.0 divided into two PCB boards, HW4.0 integrates it into one board with a higher degree of integration, without the GPU sub-board, so the device as a whole will become more flattened.

At the same time, the HW4.0 suite will integrate a high-resolution radar to solve the previously criticized ghost brake problem. According to previous exposures, the high-resolution radar is code-named "Phoenix" and is understood to be a 4D millimeter wave radar with a detection range twice that of its current radar.

Different from HW3.0, the backplane of HW4.0 has 8 more memory. Tesla, who has always been sensitive to cost, may have spent a lot of money on the top GDDR6 this time.

Source: Twitter computer enthusiasts will know better that GDDR6 appeared only after Nvidia released 20 series of graphics cards in 2018.

Compared with the LPDDR4,GDDR6 currently used by HW3.0, the highest operating frequency is much higher than LPDDR4, the highest can reach 1750MHz, and the transmission rate is about 12800MT / s.

HW4.0 upgrades video memory to 16G GDDR6 per core, more than 8G LPDDR4 per core of HW3.0. It is speculated that the overall computing power of FSD will be increased by 3-5 times.

But the price is-- the power consumption is also increased accordingly.

Green God has revealed that HW 4.0 consumes about twice as much power as HW 3.0. idle power consumption can reach 80W. It is not clear what impact the new hardware will have on the vehicle's battery life. Because of this, Tesla adopted a new power interface on HW 4.0to support greater power supply.

Source: Twitter may also not use this kind of video memory because of its high power consumption, which means Tesla will be the first car company to use GDDR6 chips in the car field.

Source: overall, the kernel of HW4.0 has not changed much, and its upgrades are mainly focused on the sensor architecture. Except for a 4D millimeter wave radar that Musk deems necessary, the rest are cameras. It seems that Musk still does not give up on the pure visual route of Tesla Vision.

According to the Green God, the HW4.0 module has already started production, but the Tesla Investor Day on March 1 is coming, and there is a good chance that it will be announced by the official on March 1.

What may be the good news on March 1? In the 2022 earnings call, Tesla mentioned the third-generation platform more than once and used "half the cost, half the manufacturing space" to describe the third-generation platform, and confirmed that it would be used to produce third-generation models after 3 / Y.

According to the third chapter of Musk's plan, it represents Tesla's long-term expansion plan, and its third-generation platform will play an important role. The sharp decline in production costs gives Tesla more possibility to continue to expand.

Source: Tesla, this means that Tesla's third-generation model platform will not be absent from this investor conference.

In addition, if you take a closer look at Tesla's publicity posters on this Investor Day, you will find that behind the text is a dense small box, which is actually composed of a series of vertical and horizontal car body side girder structures.

Source: Twitter side wall structure, as the body-in-white structure with the largest projection area of the whole vehicle, needs aluminum alloy die-casting equipment with a mold closing force of 12000T, combined with Tesla has realized the integrated die-casting of the chassis structure before and after the whole vehicle.

So at this investor conference, we may also see Tesla announce his new progress in integrated die-casting of side wall structures.

Finally, to make an incomplete summary, the investor day in a few days' time may have the following important information:

Release the latest hardware system Hardware 4.0

Release the modified Model 3

Release of the third generation platform and new models

Development of Integrated Die casting Technology

Progress of sustainable energy storage business

Space X's Starship Program

This article is from the official account of Wechat: Chaodian Lab (ID:SuperEV-Lab), author: Wang Lei

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