Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

February 21 news, at the recent Kuaishou idealist real estate conference, Jia Kang, founding director of Huaxia New supply Economics Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech on "some understandings on real estate development". Jia Kang believes that the recovery of China's real estate industry has become a main tone, under which the new first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities can be summarized as central areas with opportunities for the development of emerging markets, which is the embodiment of China's economic and social growth. The space with medium-and long-term development potential will release the dividend of urbanization.

Jia Kang said that after the Economic work Conference, the financial "20 articles" were issued, indicating that the policy of the real estate industry is blowing frequently. The overall economic recovery will accelerate in the first half of 2023, and the indicators for the second quarter will further boost market confidence, improve expectations, boost the level of China's economic boom in the third and fourth quarters, and provide good objective conditions for the further opening of the new situation in 2023.

Under this general trend and main tone, Jia Kang pointed out that on the whole, while the "fire" side of China's real estate industry will take the lead in warming up, it does not rule out that some places will continue to be difficult. Therefore, each specific city, each specific local jurisdiction, must be specific investigation and analysis, specific discussion, it is impossible to have a unified solution.

"from the perspective of structural characteristics, the concept of new first-tier cities represented by Hangzhou, as well as the concepts of new second-tier and new third-tier cities with similarities in logic, in the process of reflecting China's economic and social growth, they have the medium-and long-term development potential that economists pay close attention to, and can be summarized as central areas with development opportunities in emerging markets. The central area of China, first of all, falls on the concept of construction area. There are nearly 700 large, medium and small towns in China, which contain development opportunities and financial opportunities that can be paid attention to. " Jia Kang said.

Jia Kang further stressed that in cities, counties, towns and rural areas below the third line, short video platforms are already using modern information technology and in ways preferred by young people to connect supply and demand for social services and promote the realization of their aspirations for a better life. In the face of the overall development, we need to further combine the rural revitalization and urban-rural integration emphasized by the central government, keep up with the recovery of the whole economy, and seize the opportunity. This is the dominant direction that can be seen this year.

At the level of real estate investment, Jia Kang indicated that real estate will more and more belong to the effective supply of "major consumer durables" for ordinary people in the future, but from the perspective of the real estate market as a whole, it cannot be understood as the complete disappearance of its investment attribute of real estate.

Jia Kang explained that according to the central government's special emphasis on "housing without speculation," the implied logic is housing to meet the needs of the people for a better life, and with the construction of the basic system of the real estate industry to create a long-term mechanism, after curbing the hype as much as possible, the real estate represented by housing is represented by the supply of "major consumer durables" by the common people, which falls on the main purpose of "houses are used to live." In this way, in accordance with the spirit of the central government, it can better reflect the prevention and suppression of possible distortions in the market, especially the bubble tendency that the common people are not satisfied with. It is hoped that after 2023, combined with the construction of basic systems, it can make the market more and more with the characteristics of long-term and healthy development. But at the same time, Jia Kang does not deny that the house will still have certain "investment attributes". " When ordinary people have a house and take it as a mortgage, they can get a loan; with the loan funds, they can start a business in the next round, and of course they have a financial attribute to support investment. And in the effective supply of the whole real estate, there must be a commercial rental market matched with the whole market to form the necessary diversified structural characteristics. This is also the case all over the world, but this commercial housing market can not be too developed, can not be easily fired up. "

Finally, Jia Kang also mentioned the domestic reference significance of the unilateral agent model in the US real estate market.

It is understood that the unilateral agent model is that buyers and sellers each have their own brokers, each act as an agent for one party, and receive commission after the transaction. This is suitable for the social environment with a high degree of rule of law, forming meticulous services, where buyers and sellers do not meet directly, and all problems are settled between brokers of both parties (in fact, professionals such as lawyers are also employed). It is helpful to avoid risks and possible subsequent disputes. What is popular in China is that an intermediary entrusts two with one hand to match the deal between the buyer and the seller.

Jia Kang believes that in the development of the rule of law in China, the evolution to unilateral agency mode is not ruled out, and there have been some similar phenomena. Jia Kang takes new professional phenomena such as professional real estate anchors as an example. Anchors need to gain the trust of their fans, which is the key to their own development, which naturally forms an internal driving force. We should do everything possible to demonstrate our loyalty to fans, patience, thoughtfulness and meticulous service, and eliminate information asymmetry. In other words, this is the evolution of coexistence and co-prosperity in order to improve the quality of service to the buyer. This phenomenon can also be considered to have the unilateral characteristics of professional real estate anchors serving the buyer.

Jia Kang said in an interview with China Financial and Economic Television that the "live selling" model has "great potential" in intermediate cities. "the industry is increasingly aware of its important role in the sinking market, in hundreds of third-and fourth-tier cities in China." most cities have very obvious space worth exploring. "

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