Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

ChatGPT is coming, Google is in a dilemma? On the contrary, some people think that Microsoft is using ChatGPT to help Google find the way.

Now, more and more people have the feeling that ChatGPT may "kill" Google.

Microsoft has gone crazy with ChatGPT. Search engine Bing, office bucket Office, cloud computing platform Azure, have joined ChatGPT.

Google has hurriedly pulled off DeepMind, pushing a beta version of the Sparrow language model in an attempt to face ChatGPT later this year.

Now, everyone is conquered by the power of ChatGPT. It can debug code, write papers, create languages, and even write a sitcom about bubble sorting.

Another impressive thing is that ChatGPT can answer questions in a concise and straightforward language.

By contrast, the experience of using Google is simply lame:

Enter query keywords

Move the mouse over the advertising area (this area is becoming more and more similar to the non-advertising area)

Browse search results / links

Guess which one will answer your question.

If you don't get the answer, go back to step 3 and repeat the following steps.

Before the advent of ChatGPT, these steps seemed fine.

But now with ChatGPT, we are used to being lazier-Google gives us a menu to choose from, but ChatGPT feeds information directly into our mouths.

Of course, Google occasionally provides ChatGPT-style answers without clicking on any links--

In spite of this, ChatGPT scared Google into releasing the "code red" and speeded up the release of AI products.

Although many people assert that "Google is dead", a well-known foreign blogger Fawzi Ammache analysis believes that their conclusions are too arbitrary.

Ammache is currently a product designer at Royal Bank of Canada and has worked at Publicis Sapient, Google and Rogers.

Google is actually the beneficiary.

Indeed, Google cannot be complacent in the face of the threat of ChatGPT. When Microsoft and OpenAI release ChatGPT-based search engines, a large number of users will flock in.

However, there is a huge potential danger.

Currently, the data set for ChatGPT training, which is from before September 2021, is not connected to the Internet.

However, once ChatGPT is integrated into Bing, it is connected to the Internet. This is tantamount to opening Pandora's box.

In view of the fact that the Internet is full of false and poisonous information, the prospect of this kind of search engine is full of risks and too many unknowns.

Of course, Microsoft and OpenAI will do their best to minimize these impacts. However, for such a pioneering product, there is no guarantee.

This does not mean that Bing integrated with ChatGPT will fail, but Microsoft is taking huge reputational risks.

Why would Microsoft dare to take this risk? It's perfectly understandable to imagine it carefully.

Currently, Google has 85% of the global search market, while Bing has only 9%.

Even if it fails, Microsoft will not suffer as much loss as Google, it is more "small and beautiful" and has a higher risk tolerance.

And Microsoft recently poured 1 billion dollars into OpenAI, and it certainly hopes to benefit as soon as possible.

And Google will take every step more cautiously.

Google has been building similar big language models (LLM), but Google has been keeping them a secret.

The biggest storm came last summer when Blake Lemoine, an engineer at Google, claimed that the chat robot LaMDA was perceptual.

Even Transformer, the core architecture that supports ChatGPT, was developed by Google.

No one knows how powerful Google's chatbots and other AI products really are.

But we know that Google has the most competitive talent and strong capital.

Advertising on search engines accounts for 60% of Google's revenue, so they are wary of products that could threaten their most profitable institutions.

Microsoft has been a forerunner in this area. Its chat robot search engine will point the way for Google's future development.

Google took great pains to keep LaMDA secret out of a series of careful considerations. And Microsoft's products can help Google test the waters.

How do people use (or abuse) Microsoft chat robots? How much are they willing to pay? Google will see it clearly and then backhand to create a better version.

Throughout history, forerunners tend to take the greatest risks and may not always have the last laugh.

You know, Google is not the first search engine, but it has become the most successful one.

And if Microsoft's new search engine succeeds, Google still faces the dilemma of innovators.

This term was put forward by the American scholar Clayton Christensen in 1997. it means that it is difficult for mature companies to adopt new technologies or business models that destroy the traditional market.

These mature companies often have the most important resources and sufficient scientific research capabilities. However, the existing customer base and fixed internal processes will keep them away from breakthrough innovation.

And when smaller, more agile competitors enter and take over the market (such as OpenAI), it may eventually lead to the demise of large, mature companies.

The reason why search engines are so lucrative is that users keep clicking on links, and in the process, Google charges merchants huge advertising fees.

However, if users can get the answer directly by relying on the chat robot, instead of looking through the list, the paid business ecology of the search engine will be destroyed directly.

This is Google's "innovator dilemma": how to provide a chatbot search engine without encroaching on Google search?

Search is a secondary search area, and it's not really the most interesting part of the AI competition.

After all, the most exciting thing about ChatGPT is its ability to generate its own content based on prompts, rather than as a search tool.

As we all know, some time ago, a person familiar with the matter revealed that Microsoft is studying the integration of OpenAI's ChatGPT into Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook and other Office applications.

In other words, the competition that once seemed to be in the field of AI chat robots has extended to other blockbuster products of Microsoft and Google.

Search: Bing vs Google

Documentation: Word vs Google Docs

Presentation: PowerPoint vs Google Slides

Spreadsheet: Excel vs Google Sheets

Email: Outlook vs Gmail

If successful, office applications that have been relatively stagnant for the past two decades are about to be subverted, and we are at an important turning point.

Imagine that your company usually uses Microsoft's Office.

Then one day the boss suddenly decided to spend a lot of money to subscribe to "senior members" to improve work efficiency.

As a result, everyone's Word, Excel, PowerPoint and Outlook have functions similar to ChatGPT.

Now, the productivity of employees has been multiplied. The completion time of reports, forms, and PPT has been greatly reduced, and only a few final touches are needed.

Not surprisingly, this has become an important advantage of your company in the competition.

But soon, your company's competitive products also found the mystery behind it, followed by the subscription to the "senior member" of Office.

As a result, their employees have achieved the same productivity.

Microsoft currently generates 23 per cent of its revenue from Office products, while only 6 per cent of its revenue is provided by ads on its own search engine Bing.

Therefore, your rush to order is great news for Microsoft. It not only further strengthens its position as the number one office / productivity application, but also makes a lot of money.

By contrast, Google's GSuite--Gmail, Docs, Sheet and Slides, which compete with Microsoft's Office, do not have generative AI features that can compete with ChatGPT.

Then the GSuite at this time in the eyes of users, is a backward antique.

From this point of view, it does make sense for Google to issue a "red alert".

Which one would you choose? Finally, let's fast forward to the near future.

At that time, both Microsoft Bing and Google will be search engines driven by chatbots.

So, which one would you use?

Reference:

Https://year2049.substack.com/p/chatgpt-wont-kill-google-it-will

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: Xin Zhiyuan (ID:AI_era)

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