Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Today, the automotive industry is accelerating the transformation to new energy, especially by 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 1/4. Although new energy vehicles have left traditional fuel vehicles behind in some driving experiences, mileage anxiety is still the biggest obstacle to the development of new energy vehicles for a long time.

Even though the battery capacity of new energy vehicles is getting larger and larger, the battery pack of 100kWh has been equipped in some models, and it is easy to have a range of 500 or 600 kilometers. At the same time, the super-capacity battery pack of 150kWh is already on its way. However, long-distance travel charging pile queue, slow charging and other problems still perplexed many new energy car owners, but also advised a lot of wait-and-see consumers.

At present, there are three main ways to replenish energy for new energy vehicles. Take the new power Wei Xiaoli as an example, the incremental program represented by the ideal (plug-in hybrid), the power exchange represented by Weilai, and the 800V high voltage fast charging represented by Xiaopeng. So who is the best way to replenish energy for new energy vehicles in the future?

Extended range (plug-in hybrid): the best way to supplement energy at this stage is actually a kind of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the principle is that it is equipped with an engine outside the power battery, but the engine is not directly involved in the power output, but uses the engine to generate electricity. When the battery is sufficient, it can be driven by pure electricity, and when the battery is insufficient, the engine starts to charge the battery, which is a pure series working mode.

Zhu Jiangming, chairman of Zero Auto, had a very apt description at the recent launch conference of the C11 extended version, "our idea is to add a 'portable battery' to the C11 pure electric products."

Compared with the series-parallel hybrid technology such as DM-i and DHT, the add-on electric vehicle has simple mechanical structure and low cost. The added-program electric vehicle can arrange larger capacity batteries in the same price range, and the pure electric mileage is often about 200km or even longer.

In essence, series-parallel hybrid technologies such as DM-i and DHT are still traditional fuel vehicles, whose purpose is to use motor to assist fuel, and then optimize the driving experience on the basis of fuel. The essence of the add-on electric car is the electric car, which uses the engine to burn oil to generate electricity, so that the electric car on this basis to optimize the range of worry.

Judging from the current actual use, the manufacturing cost of Zengji electric vehicle is low, and the characteristic that it does not rely on charging facilities is very suitable for the current vehicle environment. According to the China Automobile Association, domestic plug-in hybrid car sales in 2022 were 1.518 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times. According to the Forecast of the Federation, the hybrid market will reach 2.3 million vehicles in 2023, which shows that consumers prefer plug-in hybrid models without mileage anxiety.

For the future, under the background of more and more stringent environmental protection policies and rising oil prices, plug-in hybrid technology, including plug-in electric vehicles, will gradually transition to pure electricity.

Zhu Jiangming, chairman of Zero Auto, recently expressed a similar view: "you can charge everywhere, electricity is enough, and there is no need for extended range products." Zhu Jiangming said.

However, this time may take five years, eight years or even more, which must be the trend of the times. At present, plug-in hybrid models, including plug-in electric cars, are still the first choice for consumers who lack charging conditions or need to travel long distances.

Changing electricity: there is no other place except Weilai to mention the mode of changing electricity, so we have to mention Weilai. Even if the power exchange mode is not invented by Wei, it is definitely the first to develop and popularize the power exchange technology.

In the era of new energy vehicles, the power exchange mode has unique advantages. For example, it can quickly replace the battery, extend the vehicle mileage, alleviate the driving anxiety to a certain extent, and improve the user's experience of using electric cars. In addition, Weilai also launched the car-electricity separation mode, using "naked car sales + renting batteries", so that users can choose their own package according to their own needs, which can effectively reduce the use cost of users. at the same time, it can also improve the second-hand preservation rate of the vehicle.

However, the power exchange mode also has many disadvantages, due to the different brand battery specifications and technology, there is no general solution like gas stations, car companies need to build power stations independently, this part of the cost is huge.

According to the latest plan of Weilai, 1000 new power stations will be added in 2023 and more than 2300 will be completed by the end of 2023, which will undoubtedly become the biggest advantage and moat of the Weilai brand.

In addition to Weilai, SAIC Feifan brand also has its own power exchange technology and is jointly invested by Sinopec, PetroChina, SAIC, Ningde Times and Shanghai International Automobile City Group. However, at present, the layout of the replacement power station is still relatively slow. the first exchange power station has just been built in September 2022, and a total of 300 exchange power stations are planned to be built by 2023, which does not have a competitive advantage compared with the already layout of Ulai.

As the current leader of power battery enterprises, Ningde era has also begun to layout the power exchange mode in the past two years, designing chocolate exchange blocks that can be combined freely, as well as EVOGO standard exchange power stations, hoping to create a power exchange mode with general cross-brand technical specifications. But so far, no well-known car companies are willing to participate, and there are very few models to support.

The fundamental reason is that power battery is one of the most core components for new energy vehicles, and the battery materials, displacement, and performance training of each company are all different. If they all adopt the unified standards provided by battery companies, then it is undoubtedly equivalent to their own core technology and supply will be held in the hands of others, I believe that no car company is willing to try.

So so far, it is only this brand that really plays the switching mode, and the continuous cost input also causes it to be in a state of loss at present, and the price of its models is really not cheap, and the threshold for popularizing the power exchange mode is still quite high in the future.

800V high voltage fast charging: a general trend in the future, but there are still many problems to be solved. Although the power exchange mode can replenish energy quickly, there have always been some doubts. Many people think that changing electricity is a bit like the replaceable battery of mobile phones before, and it is finally replaced by fast charging.

At present, the mainstream fast charging system is 400V system, and the maximum charging power will not exceed 200kW under the current limit. At present, Tesla's latest generation of S4 overcharge pile can realize 480V DC fast charge, and the highest charging power can reach 250kW.

In 2019, Porsche launched the Taycan model, which was equipped with 800V high-voltage fast charging platform for the first time. Subsequently, Xiaopeng, BYD, Eian, polar krypton and other domestic independent brands have also launched or plan to launch 800V high-voltage fast charging platform.

Take the Xiaopeng G9, which has been delivered in mass production as an example, officials said that "the fastest charge is 5 minutes, and the battery life is increased by 200km"; "the SOC is charged from 10% to 80%, entering the 15-minute era." If it can be achieved, then new energy car owners will be able to get infinitely close to refueling the same charging experience.

For now, however, it is still not easy to experience 800V high voltage fast charging. First of all, it is the deployment of charging piles, or take Xiaopeng as an example, the S4 supercharged piles supporting 800V high pressure and fast charging began to be laid in the third quarter of 2022, and as of January 31, only a few S4 supercharged piles have been laid in a limited number of cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. According to Xiaopeng's plan, it is planned to complete the S4 ultra-fast charging network coverage along the national key cities and core highways in 2023, and another 2000 Xiaopeng ultra-fast charging stations are expected to be built by 2025.

In addition to Xiaopeng, the number of 800V fast filling piles built by other brands is also very limited. In addition, at present, neither the charging piles built by various brands nor the charging piles that have been built and operated by the State Grid do not support 800V high-voltage fast charging, and it will take some time to popularize and land.

Secondly, in the vehicle side, including batteries, electronic controls, and even air conditioners and other components need to adapt to 800V high-voltage system, especially the core material silicon carbide is difficult to produce and the rate of good products is reduced, which makes its price difficult to come down in a short time. So cost is still the biggest obstacle to the popularity of 800V high voltage systems, which is why we have seen mass production of models that support 800V high voltage systems are mainly focused on high-end models.

It can be predicted that 800V high voltage fast charging will become the mainstream energy supplement way of new energy vehicles in the future, but at this stage, it still needs the further development of new energy vehicle enterprises and related industrial chains. At the same time, higher charging power also requires higher power system capacity, and it also needs the cooperation of all parties to popularize it as soon as possible, which can never be achieved by a single car company.

At present, it will take at least 3-5 years or more to achieve large-scale popularization, but it is necessary for new energy vehicle companies to start layout and planning as soon as possible.

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