Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Thanks to CTOnews.com netizen goodfull for the clue delivery! "the first quarter of this year may be the most difficult and challenging period for the automobile industry and the new energy automobile industry."

At a media conference on February 6, Qin Leehom, co-founder and president of Xilai, said that the most difficult first quarter was due to short-term fluctuations, but he maintained confidence in the new energy vehicle market throughout the year.

However, in the past January, the new power of car-building sales ushered in a collective decline. Of these, 8506 vehicles were delivered by Weilai, down 11.87% from the same period last year and nearly half from the previous month-while the communication meeting, intended to introduce Spring Festival activities, may have been postponed due to the "price reduction" storm. In the question session, people focus on "price reduction", "sales volume" and "profit".

In fact, recently, the promotion activities launched by Weilai Automobile to the ES8, ES6 and EC6 of the first generation platform have been reported to have a "maximum discount of 100,000 yuan", which has led to the dissatisfaction of regular users.

To this end, Qin Leehom said that the "discount of 100,000 yuan" is the conclusion that the maximum value of each discount is simply and directly added, and it is not rigorous; at present, Weilai is indeed clearing the stock of the first-generation "866" model and preparing for the "866" model of the second-generation platform. the move is for clearance and vehicle renewal.

However, since the prices of developers such as Xiaopeng, AITO, Zero, Feifan, Weilai and Polar Krypton have been reduced collectively at the beginning of this year, the conventional promotion measures of car companies in the past have been imaginative at this special point.

Earlier, he Xiaopeng pointed out in the internal letter: "at present, the vast majority of car companies will be out in this knockout stage, there is no way out." After all the turmoil and changes in the past year, the founder, Shen Hui, hinted on Weibo that he wanted to "live like an animal." Li Yinan, a freelancer founded by Li Yinan, known as the "crown prince of Huawei," hurriedly exited because of a lack of qualification.

Perhaps, price reduction is a strategy, but it is also a silhouette: with the country making up the slope in 2023 and Musk's high-profile announcement of Tesla's price reduction, the fierce domestic market competition is coming this spring.

First, Musk "does not follow the routine" in the vast majority of interpretations, Musk "does not follow the routine" is the fuse to "induce" this round of price war: on January 6, 2023, Tesla China's official website shows that all its domestic models have reduced prices. Among them, the starting price of Model3 fell to 229900 yuan, and the starting price of ModelY dropped to 259900 yuan, the lowest price in history.

Tesla's average daily sales in China rose 76 per cent year-on-year to 12700 vehicles between January 9 and January 15, according to data compiled by China Bank International. In the 2022 earnings call, Tesla announced that orders-on-hand are about twice the current production capacity, reaching the strongest level in history. In January, Tesla sold a total of 66000 new cars, an increase of 18.4% over December's wholesale sales and 10.4% over the same period last year.

In this regard, Zhang Xiang, director of the New Energy Automobile Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Science and Technology Vocational College, told NetEase Technology "State ℃" that "what is special about Tesla (price reduction) is the price reduction on the official website." Different from the general traditional car companies, and even some of the new car-building forces: their price reduction is through the dealer to give some concessions, that is, the car price remains the same, free maintenance, free decoration. The Tesla official website announced a price reduction, which has never been seen in the automobile industry before. "

In Zhang Xiang's view, price reduction is a normal phenomenon in the competition of car companies. However, the price reduction of Tesla's models in the range of 200000 to 300000 is bound to have an impact on other brands in the same range: "if prices are not reduced, the competitiveness of car companies will be weakened and customers will go to Tesla."

In fact, Tesla has set off five price cuts in the past six months: after the latest price cut in early January this year, the starting price of his domestic models is already in a similar price range with many similar models of the new local car-building forces.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic models with a price range of 200,000 to 300,000 have borne the brunt, and have taken the lead in responding: Xiaopeng, AITO, Zero run, Feifan, Ulay, Polar Krypton and other preferential measures have been introduced. For example, Xiaopeng cut the prices of its G3i, P5 and P7 models, with entry prices ranging from 148000 to 209000 yuan, with an overall drop of 20, 000 to 36000 yuan. While Guanxuan cut prices on January 17, Xiaopeng gave the first car owners who ordered G3i, P5 and P7 a 10-year or 200000-kilometer warranty and a 4-year basic maintenance discount.

A similar situation happens to the question world. On January 13, Wanjie adjusted the price of its all-line models. For example, the comfortable version of the M7 and the deluxe version, as well as the all-electric all-wheel drive performance version of the M5E have been reduced by 30,000. In addition, Q & J launched activities for car owners 13 days ago, including extending the car warranty to 8 years / 160000 km and giving 120000 AITO points.

It can be said that the polar krypton, the boundary and Xiaopeng, which compete directly with Model3 and modelY, may be greatly affected by Tesla's price reduction. Not only that, recently, GAC EA also launched 5000 yuan / Taiwan time-limited delivery incentives for some models. In addition, Feifan Automobile, a subsidiary of SAIC (600104), announced that it would adjust the product price system from February 2, and the starting price of R7 would be reduced to 195900 yuan.

In response to the question of whether Tesla will trigger a wave of price cuts in the industry, Zhang Xiang said that Tesla's decision is based on changing prices according to changes in sales orders, and the industry-wide trend of price cuts will not occur. More will occur in products in the range of 200,000 to 300,000.

Second, "if a price war exists, it will put even greater pressure on some small car companies." In fact, in addition to Tesla's influencing factors, the decline in sales and destocking pressure of domestic new energy producers in the spring of 2023 may be one of the bases for manufacturers' price reduction decisions this time. From January 1 to 27, 2023, the retail volume of the passenger car market was 985000, down 45% from a year earlier and 43% from a month earlier, according to the Federation of passengers.

In addition, sales of new energy vehicles in China reached nearly 7 million in 2022, an increase of 93.4 per cent respectively over the same period last year. According to the Ministry of Public Security, 5.35 million new energy vehicles were newly registered in 2022. The difference between sales and registration of new energy vehicles is nearly 2 million, which directly reflects the high proportion of inventory of electric vehicles.

On the other hand, after experiencing the impact of the general rise of raw materials in the upper reaches in 2022, the current correction in raw material prices may become another direct reason for car companies to reduce prices. Shang Hanjie, investment manager of a state-owned fund in Nanjing, said: "Last year, the price of raw materials also played a big role, and the prices of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel were high at the end of the year. Now, with the growth of new energy vehicles, the supply and demand of raw materials may improve, and prices may see going down to ease the cost pressure on cars."

However, no matter what the reason is, the real impact that can not be ignored is that Tesla's operating space at the price level is much larger than that of domestic cars, no matter whether they are passively following or actively seeking change.

"Tesla is the most profitable, it has room to reduce prices, and now it has achieved economies of scale. But Weilai and Xiaopeng sold only 100000 vehicles in 2022, which did not achieve economies of scale and was in a state of loss." Zhang Xiang said.

In fact, in the face of Tesla's gross profit margin of 28.5%, which has achieved economies of scale, the new forces of domestic car-building are generally in a state of loss. And when to make a profit has also become a universal problem of the new forces of domestic car-building.

Although, Qin Leehom, president of Xilai, said at the exchange: "profit is the result of doing a series of things right and the result of reasonable development. New energy vehicles are definitely not the fastest way to make money. For example, batteries are very expensive. If you want to make a profit, you can go to mine." Qin Leehom further pointed out that the development of new energy vehicles is still in its early stage, and it is short-sighted to rush to harvest in order to win development tickets.

However, for Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces that are in urgent need of financing for blood transfusion, on the basis of low bicycle profits, price reduction promotion is undoubtedly a double-edged sword. In fact, among the current new energy car companies, only Tesla and BYD are profitable. Weilai lost 1.825 billion yuan, 2.745 billion yuan and 4.142 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 alone.

"if there is a price war, it will put more pressure on some small car companies. They are already losing money, and the price reduction has increased their operating costs. Once forced to cut prices, it is likely to lead to increased tension in the capital chain and the risk of bankruptcy." Zhang Xiang said.

Third, local "gunfire" will not stop, and products with small sales are not qualified to become competitive products of others. "the price war in the market is also normal and needs to be further carried out." In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China passenger car Market Information Joint Association, the price war in the market may be inevitable.

Cui Dongshu told NetEase Science and Technology "State ℃" reporter that enterprises should enhance their technological strength and product capabilities, and effectively enhance their competitiveness: "to achieve a reasonable market position in the market, choose a reasonable market position, suitable for their own development."

Shang Hanjie believes: "the current price reduction in the industry is mainly caused by the supply and demand of the industry, which is caused by the competition pattern." the annual growth rate of the new energy vehicle industry in the past two years has doubled every year, and now the penetration rate is close to 30%. After that, the dividend of industry growth will gradually decrease. Therefore, it is also a normal stage for the industry to clear after a dozen price wars. "

Perhaps, the new energy market large-scale "price war" is very difficult to produce, but the local "gunfire" will not stop.

A piece of intuitive data is very telling: in January 2023, with the exception of Tesla, BYD and ideal, which rose 286.5%, 62% and 23% respectively compared with the same period last year, almost the whole new energy vehicle market showed a month-on-month decline in sales to varying degrees. According to estimates by the Federation of passengers, domestic manufacturers of new energy passenger cars sold 410000 vehicles in January, down about 45 per cent from the previous month.

Data show that, including Weilai, Nezha, Xiaopeng, Zero, including a group of mainstream car-building new forces in January sales performance is extremely poor, there are varying degrees of negative growth. For example, Zero, which had an eye-catching performance, plunged 85 per cent in January compared with the same period last year and fell 85 per cent on a month-on-month basis; Xilai delivered 8506 vehicles in January, down 11.9 per cent from the same period last year; and Naga, the champion of new power sales, delivered only 6016 vehicles in January, down 45.4 per cent from the same period last year.

It is worth noting that Xiaopeng, which had a strong performance in the first half of 2022, delivered only 5218 cars in January this year, down 59.6% from the same period last year. Xiaopeng founder he Xiaopeng previously said in an internal letter that Xiaopeng plans to deliver 200000 cars in 2023. Based on this calculation, Xiaopeng is far from achieving its sales target in January.

In response, Cui Dongshu said: "in January, the new energy vehicle market presented a particularly difficult time due to the withdrawal of subsidies and the short impact of the Spring Festival."

Cui Dongshu believes that this is only a temporary phenomenon: "the market behind will gradually stabilize." in particular, the epidemic is gradually over, and the car market will gradually stabilize. All car companies should seize the opportunity of the future car market to stabilize and warm up and strive to develop after February. "

In fact, for the whole of 2022, China was exempted from new energy vehicle purchase tax of 87.9 billion yuan, an increase of 92.6 percent over the same period last year, and a reduction of 39.75 billion yuan in car purchase tax for passenger cars. Retail sales of passenger cars reached 20.543 million, an increase of 1.9 percent over the same period last year.

Among them, new energy vehicles can continue to strengthen under the policy of halving car purchase tax, with a total retail sales of 5.674 million vehicles, an increase of 90 per cent over the same period last year. According to the China Automobile Association, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 9 million this year, an increase of 35 per cent over the same period last year, while the CAA predicts that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 8.4 million, up 30 per cent from the same period last year.

Perhaps, facing the future, confidence is more precious than gold. The bright path may have twists and turns.

As ideal car founder Li Xiang once said: "the products with poor sales live in the shadow of the head, and the products with the head of sales compete for share with each other; products with low sales are not qualified to be competitive products of others."

Price reduction may be just the usual tactical adjustment of car companies, but how to capture more markets and get more sales is the real bargaining chip that car companies will leave on the card table in 2023.

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