Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

After the baptism of the Spring Festival, I feel strongly that I can't live without a car.

In the city, the demand for cars is offset by convenient public transportation, and you can live a convenient life without your own car, even during the traffic jam, in front of the difficult moving traffic. On the contrary, a pedestrian who can move freely can secretly develop a sense of superiority.

However, once back in the countryside, especially during the Spring Festival, a person who does not have a car always feels that the person who has the steering wheel has a say, which is almost insulated from free travel.

When New Year's Eve returned to his hometown in the countryside that day, there were all private cars on the road, and his impression was that the bus he had taken when he was young and small had disappeared. On the way back, I wanted to take a bus to the bus stop in town, but as a result, the bus stop was empty and had to go back by family. This means that if you want to go back to your hometown for the Spring Festival, public transport cannot be relied on, and you must have a car of your own.

Behind the outage of passenger cars in the town is the increase in the number of private cars in recent years. Data show that in 2022, the number of motor vehicles in China reached 417 million, of which 319 million were cars, and the number of vehicles with 1,000 people reached 220,220, exceeding the global average. The number of motor vehicle drivers in the country reached 502 million, including 464 million drivers. In 2022, there were 34.78 million newly registered motor vehicles and 29.23 million newly licensed drivers.

The huge number of cars shows the great strength and influence of the automobile industry, which is significantly magnified during the Spring Festival travel season.

According to Automobile House, on January 30, it was learned from the Ministry of Transport that as of January 29 (January 21-29), railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation across the country had sent a total of 892 million passengers, while the volume of Spring Festival passenger cars was the highest in recent years. According to the 21-day cumulative data of Spring Festival transportation, the average daily number of expressway minibuses is about 32.4 million. According to the research and analysis, from the point of view of the travel structure, there is a situation in which road passenger transport is replaced by self-driving travel mode.

These self-driving vehicles pour into small cities, counties, towns and villages from big cities, squeezing the bus service system that commutes between towns and other settlements, and frantically occupying already chaotic and limited parking resources. Parking spaces are full, it is difficult to find a suitable parking place, and it is difficult to drive your car out of a pile of cars, which may be the pain in the heart of every person who returns home.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on January 12, China's automobile production and sales completed 2702.1 million and 26.864 million vehicles respectively in 2022, an increase of 3.4% and 2.1% respectively over the same period last year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in the whole year reached 2383.6 million and 23.563 million respectively, an increase of 11.2% and 9.5% respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 7 percentage points higher than that of the industry. This achievement is quite rare in the black swan's continuous, ups and downs market environment.

The market scale of the automobile industry will continue to expand. Thanks to the purchase tax concessions and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, China's passenger car market has exceeded 20 million for eight consecutive years. With the continuous explosive development of the new energy vehicle industry, Guolian Securities believes that domestic passenger car sales are expected to reach 23.762 million in 2023, and the overall car sales are expected to maintain at the level of 27.5 million. Throtter predicts that by 2030, the total size of China's auto value pool will double, and the market size will exceed 4.5 trillion US dollars.

The continuous growth of the passenger car market is bound to squeeze the limited road traffic resources, and the growth of car ownership has been reshaping the public transport form of the sinking market.

To travel freely, you must have your own car. The more you get to the sinking market, the more limited the public transport resources are. With the continuous growth of private cars, the already single form of public transport is becoming more and more thin. This situation, in turn, will boost the growth of private vehicles.

Car-free people rely on planes, trains and road passenger cars to travel during the Spring Festival. These are all transportation channels suitable for long-distance travel, but a short trip, a car under your control, is the most suitable tool.

Public transport is subject to a fixed time and place, urban traffic may reduce the limitations of time and space through intensive scheduling, but the passenger volume is small and scattered between townships and cities, the choice of public transport is faced with a lot of inconvenience. Compared with the eastern urban agglomeration, the southwest region where I live, the distribution of public transport resources has dropped exponentially, to the sinking market such as counties and villages and towns, they rely more on private travel tools.

Nowadays, young people pay more and more attention to free travel, and when they return to their hometown, they find that young people in the county in their early twenties will choose to buy a car of their own even if they do not have much money. In the case of limited public transport resources, a friend recommended me to rent a car or book a private car in advance to commute between urban and rural areas. Of course, while saving time and obtaining convenience, it is necessary to pay higher fees during the holidays.

In the face of the dilemma that there are no buses to take during the Spring Festival, it is hard not to remind people that the sparsely populated Midwest of the United States is approaching the state of one car per capita. Perhaps the same is true of China's sinking market, which has a more urgent demand for cars than cities.

According to the 2018 data, with the changes in car ownership in recent years, the fast-growing provinces are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, with Guizhou, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guangxi and Hubei ranking in the top five, and Sichuan, the most populous province in the western region. the number of civil cars also exceeded 10 million at that time. However, according to the data released by the World Bank in 2019, the number of cars owned by 1,000 people in the United States is 837, compared with that in China, and there is still great potential for car consumption.

02, car owners can not escape the "dilemma" Spring Festival travel as a circulation problem, itself is a kind of distress, car owners can not be spared.

In "pathfinding China", he Wei recorded the face of China's roads at the beginning of 2000, which also reflected the smallness of the car market at that time. He wrote:

"many of China's roads are still very empty, especially on the grasslands of the northwest, and on the roads leading to the Himalayas, there is little traffic, only a sky full of north wind and dust. Even in the fast-growing towns along the coast, there are open roads everywhere. They connect industrial areas under construction as well as planned apartment neighborhoods. They wind their way through terraces that will soon become the suburbs of the city. They connect villages, and more than 20 years ago, villagers here had to go out on foot. "

"in 2001, China's population exceeded 1.2 billion, but the number of passenger cars was less than 10 million. the proportion is that 128 people own a car, which is equivalent to the level of the United States in 1911."

Just over two decades later, the development of China's road transportation and automobile industry has changed. Nowadays, cars all over the street make the emptiness rare, and being stuck on the highway is a "dilemma" that every motorist wants to avoid. However, traveling on holidays, especially the long holidays such as the Spring Festival and May Day, it is difficult not to encounter highway congestion.

During the Spring Festival, I can always hear the painful experience of several relatives and friends driving home who have been stuck on the highway for hours. As a matter of fact, near the end of the holiday, I, who chose to take the bus on the sixth day of the Lunar New year, also experienced such a suffocating moment. I walked for ten hours because of the traffic jam, which usually took only three hours.

On the surface of the road that often turns red to yellow on the map, more cars mean higher congestion rates. if you want to travel smoothly, the choice of travel time is very important, or maybe it is wise to leave the car and take the train.

However, the same problem, if the travel space is limited to cities, public transport is the first choice, but to go to the countryside, out of the airport and railway station, we always need a car to take us to the final destination. Of course, cycling is also a flexible way if you have less luggage, good physical strength and are not afraid of the cold. To avoid congestion while pursuing comfort, let's look forward to flying cars.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: automobile News Agency (ID:automobile-news), by du Qiu.

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