Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Dell'Oro Group recently predicted that global broadband network spending will rise steadily over the next five years, in part because of the ongoing construction and upgrading of optical fiber networks. The cable television (CATV) industry's plan to upgrade its network to support virtualized and distributed access architectures and, in some cases, DOCSIS 4.0 will also help increase broadband spending. Fixed wireless client devices (CPE) will also contribute, but growth is expected to slow in the coming years.

PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11 billion in 2022 to $13.2 billion in 2027, mainly due to XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and CALA (Caribbean and Latin America), Dell'Oro said.

Jeff Heynen, vice president of Dell'Oro, said that while DSL spending continues to decline, PON spending is expected to increase, a shift that could affect about $1.8 billion in equipment spending in North America. He expects the upgrading and expansion of old copper infrastructure to help boost PON spending, but most of that growth, about 70 per cent, is related to network phasing out and other fiber expansion projects.

Cable access network spending increases Dell'Oro expects Cable access network spending to return to about $1.5 billion by 2027, following a slowdown in recent years, thanks in part to DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades and FTTP deployments. Heynen explained that spending on Cable access networks peaked at $1.7 billion in 2017, compared with about $1 billion a year in 2019 and after 2020.

Heynen said that the deployment of virtual cable modem terminal system (vCMTS) and the introduction of distributed access architecture will drive the growth of Cable access spending, which will also drive the upcoming DOCSIS 4.0 network upgrade.

Another piece of cake is the emerging adoption of remote OLT (Optical Line Terminal), which can be deployed in distributed access nodes to support FTTP deployment. Comcast has been on the road of this new generation of HFC network. Other companies are also stepping up their efforts to find similar deployment models.

Although Cable network spending will continue to grow, Heynen does not expect it to grow as fast as it did in DOCSIS 3.0 and DOCSIS 3.1, which focused on the purchase and deployment of centralized CMTS chassis and line cards. "We are talking about a new architecture with remote OLT, virtual CMTS, and remote PHY, which will take longer to implement," he said.

Heynen also expects Cable access network spending to continue to rise after 2027 as other operators join.

FWA CPE spending will fall Dell'Oro expects the FWA CPE segment to drive $2.2 billion in spending by 2027, down from $3.2 billion in 2022.

Heynen expects FWA CPE spending to remain stable by 2024, but he also said some service providers could face capacity problems that dampen growth and face fiercer competition from fiber optics and newly upgraded HFC networks. These problems set limits on the growth of fixed wireless services, he said.

Although T-Mobile and Verizon are driving the growth of FWA, Heynen wants to know how the WISP (wireless ISP) industry, which is growing steadily, will develop in the future. As WISP seeks government subsidy opportunities, some WISP may need to consider licensed spectrum or transition to fiber optics within their coverage, Heynen said.

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