Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Editor's note: like everyone else, we are very excited about the release of wandering Earth 2. As a content creator in the field of science and technology, in wandering the Earth 2, he saw not only the rise of Chinese science fiction film and film industry, but also a large number of real scientific and technological venation.

Because the film's basic skills in science and technology are very solid, covering a wide range of areas, and its "near Future", which began in the 1940s, is not far away from us, so many netizens joke that "wandering Earth 2" is not a science fiction film, but a science and technology development trailer.

In fact, many scientific and technological progress worth witnessing and understanding in reality are hidden out of the spotlight, and it is very difficult for everyone to see them. Why don't we just rub a little bit of the popularity of the movie, sort out some of the branches involved in it, and talk about how far the technology in the movie is from us and how they develop in reality. This can be used not only as an observation of the global scientific and technological situation, but also as an examination of the self-reliance of science and technology.

Let's use technology as a jigsaw puzzle to complete this realistic reflection of wandering Earth 2.

The MOSS line is the deepest story in wandering Earth 2. What is the seemingly omnipotent real body of MOSS? In terms of performance, the mysterious MOSS is the awakened artificial intelligence, or the successfully uploaded digital life. He can not only help humans build planetary engines, but also connect global cameras to secretly observe everything and plan the layout independently.

But the real body of MOSS, at least in the eyes of human beings, has long been revealed in the movie-the 550th series of quantum computers.

In the movie, the 550 quantum computer has appeared for three generations, all suitcase-sized computing devices, but its function is amazing, not only uploading digital life, but also completing automation construction, but also responsible for astronaut interviews, and this seems to be in line with our vague expectations of quantum computers.

Over the years, quantum computing has been demonized to some extent by "indecisive quantum mechanics" in false advertising and transitional marketing. When the chip dispute between China and the United States suddenly broke out, people began to pay attention to whether quantum computers can overtake around the corner. When we met MOSS at the cinema, we had a big change in the concept of quantum computer.

So the question is, in reality, how long do we have to wait before we can use quantum computers? Will it go too far like the MOSS in the movie and directly become a great hidden danger to mankind?

As the development trend of quantum computers becomes clearer, the answers to these questions can be found in general.

One thing about computing limit and quantum hegemony needs to be affirmed first of all. Judging from the current development pattern of global computing, quantum computing is almost necessary to accomplish such a huge computing task as a planetary engine in the middle of the 21st century. This is very reasonable in wandering Earth 2.

After the information revolution, computing has gradually become one of the most important human capabilities, and even become the core part of the international game and national strategy. But in today's cycle, there is a consensus on computing-the limit of silicon chips is approaching. The things that human beings need to calculate are growing infinitely, but the power of calculation will soon be unable to keep up.

The first manifestation of this "crisis" is that Moore's Law is gradually failing. According to Moore's Law, the number of transistors per unit area of a chip doubles every 18 months, and so does the computing power achieved. However, the chip process and material process is limited, Moore's law is significantly slowing down, or even stagnant.

If we give up silicon chips, what is the next computing body? There are dazzling answers to this topic, but what seems most likely today is quantum computing.

The so-called quantum computing refers to a new processing method that uses the principle of quantum deviation correction to complete the computing task. This concept was put forward in the 1980s. For decades, there have been schemes for building quantum computers, such as ion traps, nuclear magnetic resonance, photon polarization, and so on. Since 2016, the research and layout of quantum computers around the world have accelerated significantly. China, the United States, Europe, Russia and other countries have launched national support programs for quantum computing. The landmark event that really brought quantum computers into public view took place in 2019.

Many people call 2019 the first year of quantum computing, or the first year of quantum computing. The reason is that this year the Google team announced that it had successfully achieved quantum hegemony, or quantum superiority, with a 53-qubit quantum computer, Sycamore. In other words, Google thinks its quantum computer can do what classical computing can't do anyway. According to a subsequent paper published by the team in the journal Nature, the quantum computer achieved a specific computing goal that would take 1,000 years to achieve in just 200 seconds.

Although people from all walks of life later raised a lot of questions about Google's "quantum hegemony has come", it is undeniable that this has indeed become a milestone in the history of the development of quantum computers. it has also greatly accelerated the global attention and promotion of quantum computers.

In the same year, IBM announced that its commercial quantum computers were ready for delivery and deployment. It was at this time that Google and IBM chased each other and fell in love with each other in the field of quantum computing. In 2022, IBM announced that it had built the world's largest quantum computer, with 433 qubits, which not only outperformed the previous generation, but also far surpassed Google's quantum computer.

Perhaps it can be said that from 2019 to today, large quantum computers have experienced a period of rapid development. Top technology companies, universities and research institutions around the world have laid out a series of results. "Quantum hegemony" has also changed from a mystery of whether it can be realized to a basically credible consensus from all walks of life.

During this period, quantum computing in China has also experienced rapid development. Quantum computer "Nine chapters" and "Zuchongzhi" have been published one after another. Among them, in May 2021, the Zuchong number of 66 qubits developed by the University of Science and Technology of China also clearly confirmed the existence of quantum hegemony. It can be said that today, China has a layout in quantum communications and quantum computers, and its overall scale and depth are second only to the United States, and it has even achieved global leadership in some fields such as quantum satellites and quantum communications.

In this process, Chinese science and technology enterprises have not been idle. Huawei, Ali and other enterprises have successively carried out quantum computing from different angles, and have made a diversified layout in the fields of quantum programming simulation, quantum machine learning, quantum cloud, quantum chip and so on.

At this stage, more than 250 companies around the world have clearly developed quantum computing projects, and more than 20 countries have put forward policies to support quantum computing.

But in the prosperity of the basic disk, we must also face up to the ups and downs of the development of quantum computers. At present, although there is international competition and the overall blessing of national policy, quantum computing is likely to lack commercial feedback for a long time. So after a decline in overall popularity in 2019, the global tech giants' commercial pursuit of quantum computing is cooling, more to support the scientific research industry and national projects. Some emerging quantum computer projects mainly provide equipment support to scientific research institutions and universities.

At the same time, under the background that the chip and computing industries are booming and the state encourages science and technology to become self-reliant, there are many indescribable and hazy quantum computer and quantum chip projects that are launched rapidly, and their future is also unknown.

In the long road to quantum computing, it seems that the future of quantum computers is very bright. Is there a little hope for the realization of quantum computing devices like those in the movies? Unfortunately, the answer is not so.

Today, the significance of quantum hegemony, or related quantum simulation and quantum machine learning, is basically limited to verifying the feasibility of quantum computing. In other words, we are still at the stage of verifying whether planetary engines can propel the moon. And unlike movies, from feasibility verification to testing machines, mass production machines, and then to commercialization, it takes a long time and countless unimaginable challenges.

From today's quantum computers to the 550 series in wandering Earth 2, there are at least three barriers that cannot be crossed today.

The first is miniaturization.

In the movie, even the 550A, which first appeared on the moon, is miniaturized. However, at the present stage, human beings have not found a quantum computer with real computational significance to complete the miniaturization. The calculation method of quantum computer needs to be completed in laser, superconducting and other environments, and a large number of cables and controllers need to be integrated in the equipment. In addition, quantum correction needs to operate in an absolute zero environment, so refrigeration-related equipment also has to occupy a huge space and mass, these basic problems, quantum computers generally need to weigh dozens of tons. And the portability is very poor, and the cost of operation and maintenance is very high. Of course, there are a series of solutions to these problems. For example, IBM puts forward the idea of modular quantum computer construction, and uses flexible cables to reduce the difficulty of quantum computer construction.

But in any case, it is almost impossible to run with a quantum computer in the short term. Maybe some friends will say, No, I've seen miniaturized quantum computers. Indeed, some companies have launched portable quantum computing devices. But it is not a quantum computer in a strict sense, but a teaching-oriented quantum computing simulation device. The miniaturization of quantum computers is far from being put on the agenda at this stage.

Another problem is that if, as in the movie, a suitcase-sized device is used to handle a calculation of this level of planetary engine construction, it may be not only the miniaturization of the calculation, but also the question of where the data exists. After all, in the absence of the Internet, huge amounts of data will lead to huge volume and weight of hard drives. This may be about to mention the direction of DNA storage, but that is another story.

The second is the dependence on absolute low temperature.

As mentioned above, quantum computers have serious environmental restrictions. This is because quantum entanglement is easily affected by electromagnetic radiation, temperature and vibration, and this effect will become stronger with the increase of the number of qubits. In order to minimize the noise in quantum computing, it is generally adopted to run quantum computers under the condition of 0 Kelvin (- 273.15 ℃).

However, on the one hand, it will increase the cost of quantum computers and reduce the possibility of commercial applications. People in the industry generally believe that the dependence on absolute low temperature is the most complex problem facing the application of quantum computers.

Then there is the lack of versatility.

We know that computers have the difference between special computers and general-purpose computers. At present, the so-called quantum hegemony verification is completely based on the special computing of specific tasks. In other words, quantum computers have shown advantages in some specific tasks, but in most tasks, the most advanced quantum computers are not as good as ordinary computers.

Behind this problem is actually the development stage of quantum computers. Verifying the advanced nature of quantum is actually only the beginning of quantum computer. In the second stage, we need to gradually develop special quantum computing over a long period of time, and finally begin to evolve to general quantum computing at a singularity. At least in the next 10 years, special quantum computers, which are limited to academic research, will be the mainstream.

Optimistically, commercially available, programmable quantum computers will not be available until 2030. And that is only the beginning of a long journey, and there is still a long way to go before quantum computers enter into all kinds of industries and complete the super-large computing tasks that humans are eager to accomplish.

Generally speaking, quantum computers have entered a period of rapid development in recent years. However, the development rate of cutting-edge science and technology must be far below the expectations of the public. If the solar crisis is approaching in the 1940s, I am afraid that quantum computers will not be in time to enter the war. More likely, quantum computers need to be at the heart of the next technology cycle, along with brain-computer interfaces, DNA storage and general artificial intelligence.

It took 70 years for artificial intelligence to see a clue in deep learning. Scientific and technological progress is always longer than we expected. Fortunately, the earth has existed for 4.6 billion years, from a probability point of view, there is no hurry to push the earth away.

Where does "little moss" grow? Finally, let's answer a few questions that may arise from MOSS and quantum computers after watching wandering Earth 2.

Question one: will quantum computing produce artificial intelligence that threatens human beings?

There is a basic problem here, that is, computing does not produce intelligence. Just like a man's abacus plays very fast, it does not equate with his wisdom in life. According to the logic of technological development in reality, intelligence comes from algorithms and interacts with people through the operating system and operating interface. The computing power is only the resource support to complete the algorithm training, deployment and iteration. In a computing device, computing, storage, network, intelligence and security are called five core elements, but they are layered and decoupled and separated from each other. Therefore, there is no math upgrade, which is bound to produce a stronger intelligent correspondence.

Question two, can a computer do so much?

We will find that the 550 series in the movie is too versatile. Uploading digital life, giving birth to artificial intelligence, directing the construction of planetary engines, and implementing the wandering Earth plan can be said to make sense. But in reality, computing is developing towards isomerization, at least today. General computing, supercomputing, AI computing and Internet of things computing are developed respectively, showing a diversity of development situation, and then pooling resources through software to form capacity clusters. This operation is more in line with the concept of low cost and safety control, all the computing power is piled on one machine, the cost is high and repeated construction will be carried out, and it will bring a lot of maintenance, maintenance and safety problems. On the other hand, in reality, it is not possible to design all kinds of interfaces and interaction forms on one computing device.

Question three: is it necessary for quantum computing to achieve artificial intelligence?

It is true that artificial intelligence has been used to simulate quantum entanglement, or to try to improve the efficiency of machine learning algorithms on quantum computers, but on the whole, the two technologies do not necessarily need to be combined.

AI technology does require a steady stream of huge computing power, but today, when the world can still be connected, cloud computing can be used to integrate computing power to provide AI training and deployment. There is no problem that AI computing power is exhausted and quantum computing is needed to save it. At present, it is more unknown whether it can promote the development of AI after the realization of quantum hegemony. We all look forward to a beautiful (or terrible) encounter between quantum and intelligence, but it's too early to talk about it.

The development of quantum computers does show us a dream similar to that in wandering Earth 2: a small device that calculates heaven and earth and can do anything. But now this dream is still very hazy and needs to be mapped slowly.

In order to solve the problem of insufficient computing power at present, it is still necessary to combine the existing computing power to form a network of shared, shared and co-governed computing power. This is not only the logical starting point of cloud computing, but also the future planned by East and West Computing.

MOSS is still a long way off, and it still requires human beings to work together to solve problems-which may also be in line with the spiritual core of wandering Earth 2.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: brain Polar body (ID:unity007), author: Feng ci Yuan

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