Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

On January 6, the 2023 ICT Industry Trends Annual meeting, sponsored by China Gongxin Publishing Media Group and all Media of Communications World under Beijing Telecom Media, was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Wu Hequan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: "China's economic development in 2023 is still full of uncertainty. China's economic development has entered a kinetic energy conversion period. It is necessary to give full play to the role of data in TFP as a new factor of production and open up a broad space for the development of ICT (information and communication technology) industry through digital transformation."

The past 2022 has been extremely extraordinary, and the world has experienced the impact of higher-than-expected factors such as the spread of COVID-19 variants, the intensification of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation in Europe and the United States, and anti-globalization, and withstood the test of uncertain risks caused by high winds and waves. However, China's electronic information industry has withstood the continuous upgrading of technology supply outages and market blocking in the United States, and has maintained a good growth momentum in the face of a low domestic macro-economic market.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to September 2022, the national computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry accounted for 43.33% of the manufacturing export value. In spite of this, Wu Hequan said: "in the extraordinary year 2022, the ICT industry can be described as' carrying a heavy load'."

Looking forward to 2023, under the background of the uncertain development environment and the Internet entering the second half, Wu Hequan put forward ten major expectations.

Looking forward to the evolution of 5G to 5G-Advanced

Wu Hequan said that after the 1G, 2G, 3G and 4G era, mobile communications have now entered the 5G era. It can be seen that in terms of application, performance and technology, 5G has made great progress in technology compared with previous generations, the application scenario has been greatly expanded, the performance has been greatly improved, and created a new era of mobile communication.

As the enhanced evolution of the subsequent phase of 5G, 5G-Advanced is committed to improving personal real-time interactive experience, enhancing cellular Internet of things capabilities, and constantly exploring uplink ultra-wideband, real-time broadband interaction and perceptual positioning and other new scenarios, base stations "carbon reduction" will also make progress. Its research direction will mainly focus on: network intelligence, industry network convergence, home network convergence, heaven and earth network integration, AR / VR integration, user interface enhancement, deterministic communication capability enhancement, network slicing ability enhancement, synaesthesia integration enhancement, multicast broadcast enhancement.

Look forward to the second: 5G to promote the integration of satellite and earth

At present, mobile communication is difficult to achieve low-cost and wide coverage of frontier, ocean and emergency scenarios. However, mobile directly connected satellites (geosynchronous orbit, low orbit, Beidou) have been able to send rescue short messages in one way. The emergence of low-orbit satellites makes it possible to use small terminals for direct access, but hundreds to tens of thousands of satellites are needed to form a joint network because of the short time of satellite overtopping.

Based on this, Wu Hequan believes that the development direction of satellite mobile communication system is to integrate with terrestrial mobile communication 5G network. However, satellite-to-ground integration still faces challenges, such as large time delay in information transmission between the terminal and the satellite, which varies greatly between the terminal and the satellite at the center and edge due to the large transmission delay between the terminal and the satellite; the Doppler frequency shift is more than 100 times larger than that of the ground, affecting processes such as frame synchronization and random access; because the satellite is unable to use mMIMO, the spectrum efficiency is only 1Comp4 of that of the terrestrial network. Therefore, Wu Hequan suggested that the satellite-to-ground network should be designed together to promote the development of satellite mobile communications.

Look forward to the third: 6G research starts from the vision.

With 5G entering the large-scale commercial stage, 6G has also entered a critical period of concept formation and technology reserve. In the future, 6G will realize the "intelligent connection" of human, physical world and digital world, and realize the deep integration of multi-space. Wu Hequan believes that there is no need to blindly strive for "speed" in the development of 6G, it is of greater significance to cover 5G beyond its power.

To change many of the current "impossible" into "possible".

So, which technologies are expected to be the key to 6G research? In this regard, Wu Hequan believes that physical layer technology enhancement (very large-scale MIMO, full-duplex), new physical dimensions (intelligent hypersurface, holography, orbital angular momentum), new spectrum technology (terahertz, visible light), fusion technology (synaesthesia, communication + AI), network technology (endogenous intelligent network, distributed autonomous network, deterministic network, power sensing network, satellite-earth integrated network, network endogenous security) will be the key.

Look forward to the fourth: "5G + Industrial Internet" to build a digital-real fusion platform.

For small and medium-sized enterprises to use public cloud, Wu Hequan believes that the enterprise cloud platform can be built on the industrial Internet through 5G. The user side of the 5G core network can form a user group of a 5G local area network for a group of users, which can realize the forwarding of the second layer data packets and shorten the forwarding distance. Compared with Wi-Fi, 5G has better coverage and better service isolation effect.

In addition, the enterprise-class UPF can be placed directly on the edge of the network, based on the multi-homing characteristic of IPv6, it can realize the local diversion of data and ensure that sensitive data does not leave the enterprise; at the same time, it can improve the efficiency of data processing to meet the needs of ultra-low latency, ultra-high bandwidth and security.

Expectation 5: IPv6+ enhances flu knowledge and control ability of data

The 14th five-year Plan period is an important strategic opportunity period for speeding up digital development, building a network power and digital China. The development of IPv6 in China is in a key stage of overcoming difficulties and crossing the inflection point. Wu Hequan points out that compared with developed countries, IPv6 in China started not too late, and because our country originally used private addresses, it pays more attention to the programmable space of IPv6 than the number of addresses. Therefore, China has taken the lead in initiating and actively developing the new function of "IPv6+" in the IETF Standardization Organization. At present, 60% of the manuscripts of IETF on the new function of "IPv6+" are submitted by our country. Thus it can be seen that China's efforts in "IPv6+" system and product development and innovation have made a positive contribution to the development of global "IPv6+" standards.

A large number of IPv6 addresses reserve a lot of programming space, but the use of addresses must be planned in advance. For example, regular address allocation can directly distinguish users' regions and business types from addresses. "IPv6+" has opened up a new hot spot in the research of Internet standards. China has the largest Internet in the world, which provides a rich scene for the application of "IPv6+" technology, and is also conducive to the experimental verification of standard technology, which can significantly improve the influenza knowledge and control ability of data.

Look forward to six: "Cloud Network Convergence + Computing Network collaboration" to create a "new infrastructure" of the Internet

In the Digital economy Development Plan of the 14th five-year Plan, it is clearly pointed out that it is necessary to promote the development of cloud network collaboration and computing network integration, and speed up the construction of a national integrated big data center system with the coordination of computing power, algorithms, data and application resources. speed up the implementation of the "East and West arithmetic" project, promote the coordinated development of cloud networks, enhance the cross-network and cross-regional data exchange capabilities of data centers, and strengthen edge computing capabilities oriented to specific scenarios. Strengthen the overall planning of computing power and intelligent scheduling. Wu Hequan said that from the national requirements and the development of business and applications, cloud network integration and computing network integration is a natural choice.

Generally speaking, enterprises can choose cloud nodes according to path distance, computing capacity, cost and performance. Enterprises send computing requests to IDC through the communication network, and use the paid or free models, algorithms, data and computing power provided by IDC, including enterprise-owned models, algorithms and data, to return the calculation results to the enterprise through the network. Therefore, the new information infrastructure created by "cloud-network convergence + computing network collaboration" not only strengthens the base for the development of the Internet industry, but also provides a broad space for ICT industry innovation.

Expectation 7: seize the continuous opportunity of Moore's Law

At present, the process of IC has developed to the nanometer level, and the 5G mobile phone chip of 3nm has been commercially used. As the semiconductor process is getting closer to 1nm and further promoted, a number of technologies promote the continuation of Moore's Law. It is reported that there are 100 billion transistors in a single chip, which will increase tenfold in the next seven to eight years. Intel is expected to assemble trillions of transistors on a single chip in 2030.

Therefore, Wu Hequan believes that the progress of chip technology is accompanied by the need for an open, unified, cross-architectural programming model. Based on the standard unified software stack, the underlying hardware capabilities such as CPU, GPU, XPU, FPGA, AI accelerators from different manufacturers are described uniformly, and encapsulated by a variety of high-performance libraries, allowing the use of industry-standard programming languages to directly program these hardware capabilities, unified code maintenance, which can significantly improve development efficiency. At the same time, thanks to the development of chip technology, the characteristics of high bandwidth and low delay of 5G will also be brought into play.

Expect 8: AI automatically generated content will usher in explosive growth

In view of the prospect of AI, Wu Hequan took OpenAI Company as an example. OpenAI, an AI research company, was founded in 2015 with shareholders including Musk, PayPal and Microsoft. OpenAI developed the GPT-3 language model (with 175 billion parameters) in 2020. On December 1, 2022, the GPT-3-based chat robot ChatGPT open test quickly became popular because of its high-quality response content, with more than 1 million users in the first 5 days of launch, posing a challenge to the traditional search engine.

AIGC (artificial Intelligence automatic content production), as a model based on large-scale data training, will subvert the existing content production model, and can produce content with unique value and independent perspective at a cost of 1/10 and a speed of a hundred times. AIGC is not only used for content generation, but its new ideas and approaches can also be used in the industrial field. Deloitte's Tech Trends 2023 report predicts more immersive Internet, super clouds and more trustworthy artificial intelligence in the next 18 to 24 months.

Look forward to 9: Web 3.0supports the association between digital assets and physical assets

Web 1.0 is the PC Internet, while Web 2.0 is the mobile Internet, where users can share and pay on social networks, but their own value is difficult to reflect and is basically monopolized by the platform. Web 3.0 is the value Internet, which aims at de-centralization or user-centralization, and uses blockchain and intelligent contracts to build a new application form of the Internet. By confirming the rights to make the works created by users on the Internet become digital collections (NFT-- non-homogenization pass, that is, trusted digital rights and interests certificate), it can realize the benefit sharing between the platform and users.

Wu Hequan pointed out that Web 3.0 can be applied to blogs, games, digital collections and other fields to achieve the relationship between digital assets and physical assets, giving rise to a digital collection creation market and corresponding jobs.

Expect ten: meta-universe should change from hype to pragmatism as soon as possible.

Meta-universe refers to the virtual world constructed by human beings using digital technology, which reflects or transcends the real world and can interact with the real world. In a narrow sense, meta-universe is based on AR / VR / MR and other technologies, which integrates the cyberspace of user avatar, content production, social interaction, online games and virtual currency payment. Meta-universe originates from the integration of existing technologies, but it is not yet mature, and immersive XR, holograms and sensory interconnection require high bandwidth, and 5G is difficult to support.

Wu Hequan points out that the future of meta-universe is not clear. At present, it is mainly consumer-oriented applications (such as immersive cultural travel, high-experience games, sensory interaction, etc.). Industrial applications (digital creative design, development platforms, virtual office space, etc.) can also be carried out in the future. Although meta-universe contains unlimited imagination, it has high R & D cost and long R & D cycle, and it is difficult to become the rigid demand of the public, so it is difficult to get a return in the short term. Meta-universe should change from hype to pragmatism as soon as possible. Virtual world is an ecology of cyberspace, but it does not represent the future of the Internet.

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