Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"it is expected to achieve small batch shipments, but large-scale industrialization is difficult, and it is not realistic to completely replace lithium batteries.

Author: Fei Fei |

Editor: Tang Shi |

The price of lithium rose crazily in 2022, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was once close to 600000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year. In the last two years, the price of lithium has soared nearly tenfold.

Lithium became a "white oil" that could not be bought, so the sodium battery came to the stage, and the power battery manufacturers began to aim at the sodium battery.

Compared with lithium, sodium battery is rich in raw materials, and the price is "cabbage price". Sodium carbonate is only about 2600 yuan per ton, thus becoming a subverter of the new energy track. By 2023, sodium battery is expected to enter the first year of industrialization.

01. The giant grabbed the beach, and the sodium battery stood in the tuyere.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen nearly tenfold in two years, which has forced power battery manufacturers to speed up the development of their substitutes. Looking at the layout of head manufacturers, sodium batteries have become an important area of concern.

Ningde era released the first generation of sodium ion batteries in 2021, and is currently promoting the industrialization of sodium batteries in 2023; Yiwei Lithium Energy and Guoxuan Tech are developing and producing sodium batteries and samples; BYD is also promoting sodium ion battery related projects; Penghui Energy, Shengyang shares, Xinwanda and other manufacturers have made efforts in the field of sodium batteries.

The sodium battery market has also performed amazingly. In the primary market, China Kehina's valuation has risen nearly eightfold. In the secondary market, Chuanyi Technology has risen 300% in four months, and its market value has soared by more than 9 billion. Projects related to sodium ion batteries have risen one after another.

Price is an important reason for power battery manufacturers to target sodium batteries. Last year, the rising price of lithium raw materials transformed into unaffordable "white oil". In this case, manufacturers have to look for alternatives.

In comparison, although the energy density of sodium battery is slightly lower than that of lithium battery, its advantage is also obvious, such as better low temperature performance and fast charge performance, higher system integration efficiency and relatively safer. More importantly, the price of raw materials for sodium batteries is very friendly. The price of sodium carbonate is only about 2600 yuan per ton, compared with more than 500,000 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate, the price is almost "cabbage price". This makes the sodium battery become the "new star" of the new energy industry, and the industry also thinks that the sodium battery will become the subverter of the new energy industry.

However, it is worth noting that these are all positive performance. The research on sodium battery has a history of at least 30 years. Before that, sodium battery has been lukewarm and has not landed on a large scale, and there are many challenges in its industrialization.

02. The technical deficiency is obvious, and it is difficult for industrialization to land.

Sodium battery has not been industrialized, the root cause is that the current industrialization can not be carried out, because the battery technology route is too scattered, but also lack of the basis of the industrial chain, there are obvious shortcomings.

At present, there are three main technical routes of sodium battery, which are layered oxide, Prussian material and polyanion. However, no matter which kind of technical route, there are obvious deficiencies. Some routes have stable structure, long service life, but large volume and low capacity density. Although some routes have high energy density, their service life is relatively short. In short, energy density and cycle life have become obvious deficiencies in the technical route of sodium battery.

To look at a set of data comparison, the energy density of lithium-ion battery is between 150-250Wh/kg, while the energy density of sodium-ion battery is relatively low, between 100-150Wh/kg. At the same time, in terms of cycle life, sodium-ion battery is also weak compared with lithium-ion battery, lithium-ion battery is 3000 + times, sodium-ion battery is only 2000 + times.

So far, the technical route of sodium battery has not been unified, in addition to the above three mainstream routes, there are multiple technical routes, but each technical route has obvious shortcomings. In other words, the current technical route of sodium battery is still in the exploratory stage.

A good example is the Ningde era. In 2021, the power battery giant Ningde era released the first generation of sodium battery, but unsurprisingly, although the Ningde era released the sodium battery, it has not been put into mass production. Comprehensive media public information, outsiders also think that the reason for not mass production is that the sodium battery itself has shortcomings, which will affect the service life of the battery.

In addition, the imperfect industrial chain is also an important factor hindering industrialization. Although the cost of the sodium ion battery developed in Ningde era is low, but in general, the cost is higher than that of lithium battery when it is applied to the ground, a large reason is the lack of industrial chain foundation. Previously, Ningde Times has publicly stated that it wants to form a sodium battery industry chain in 2023. At present, the industry also holds different views on this goal.

03, can not replace lithium battery, will become a supplement

At present, there is no consensus on the technical route of sodium battery, and it lacks the basis of industrial chain. Although it is accelerating commercialization in 2022, it is unlikely to realize large-scale industrialization. However, the realization of small batch shipments in 2023 can be basically achieved.

After lithium battery becomes "white oil", sodium battery, as a high-profile subverter of new energy track, is most likely to become a supplement to lithium battery. However, it should be noted that although the sodium battery occupies the core advantage in price, the sodium battery has not been verified in the market, and its maturity cannot be compared with that of the lithium battery, so it is difficult to surpass the lithium battery in a short time. From this point of view, sodium battery will not completely replace lithium battery.

Moreover, if there is no basis of the industrial chain, sodium battery can not form a price advantage in landing cost, and its comprehensive cost is not necessarily "cabbage price", so sodium battery will effectively supplement lithium battery and cannot be replaced completely. the two will form a pattern of coexistence and competition with complementary advantages.

In the long run, sodium battery is more suitable for energy storage. Because of its low energy density, it will be widely used in the market of pure electric vehicles with short mileage, and it is also expected to increase the range of pure electric vehicles. In addition, sodium batteries are also suitable for two-wheeled vehicles. According to the forecast of professional institutions, the market size of sodium battery is expected to be close to 40 billion yuan by 2025.

Reference:

1. How far is it from "sodium battery" spare tire to regular tire? "

2. "six trading limits are announced on one paper, and the concept of sodium battery is hot."

This article is from the official account of Wechat: new Research (ID:chuxinyanjiu), author: Feifei

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