Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Happy New year, folks. Xiaohua is here to wish the good folks of acw that the more money "rabbit" in the unpredictable year, the more money "rabbit" boundless.

Time is always repeatedly turning uncertainty into certainty, and then breaking it, never ignoring people's inner anxiety, fear and fluke. In the Chinese science fiction Highland three-body remade into a TV series, the counter-science countdown in front of Wang Miao, a nanomaterial scientist, is the best interpretation of this.

The fragility of the human heart always makes people infatuated with the prediction of the end, and the prediction of the end always makes it easy to ignore the focus on the source. Wang Miao's greatest fear came from his complete confusion about the end of the countdown, and after putting aside his obsession with the outcome, he even quickly got used to the numbers floating in front of him forever.

To be exact, he did not give up the entanglement, but gave up cowardice and fluke. Yes, in an era of upheaval, the obsession with the over-pursuit of complicated and confusing destinations is a cowardly and lucky turkey scientist mentality.

And the brave, whether far-sighted or nearsighted, wise or reckless, will not bear to look directly at their feet, even if they are full of thorns, beyond understanding, and near the abyss. In fact, the full picture of the end is never predicted by the prophets, but drawn by the brave, the brave who fall halfway, or the brave who come to the end.

Elon Musk, an American from South Africa, is said by the Chinese to be the most Chinese-like American; Buffett's partner, Munger, said he took an IQ of 150 as a fool in use; former Twitter employees said he was crazy; Medvedev said he was the next president of the United States; Chinese auto competitors said he would, and so would we.

But no matter how his epitaph will be written, no one should object that he can be called the title of brave.

In China, among the comments on Musk and his Tesla that can be seen by the outside world, the one closest to objectivity is Li Xiang. In August 2020, Li Xiang said that Tesla won the competition in the most basic way. Its advantages are brand, service and charging pile construction.

Li Xiang said that almost all enterprises do not know where Tesla won, because the reason for winning is too primary, not so glamorous, but ignored.

Chinese car makers have never been willing to admit Tesla's advantages on the product side, so Li Xiang's remarks have already been regarded as a tribute to Tesla in domestic industry public opinion.

Before the Spring Festival this year, a video of Li Xiang was supposed to be an internal speech, in which Li Xiang believes that Tesla has so far taken the right step at every key node and has never made a mistake. This is because Tesla can always maintain the first principle to make decisions, eliminate all emotional and emotional interference, and make judgments from the law of the development of things.

The first principle, whether in management or sociology, is still controversial. In essence, this is the advanced version of the principle of efficiency first, which we people in this village should know better. It's the scientific version of black cat and white cat. This is unfair to cats that can't catch mice, or cats that used to catch mice but now can't catch mice.

But to do this, there are basically two indispensable points, but the more large-scale enterprises and organizations are, the more difficult it is to achieve: the first is the recognition of all members, and the first is the recognition of all members, an incidental requirement is the high cultural quality of all staff; the second is based on the first point, that is, bosses and enterprises are brave enough to catch more and more cats that can not catch mice in this era of artificial intelligence.

In the Internet age, such companies are beginning to become possible, and there is no shortage of examples in China, such as Tencent, but Huawei is still struggling to stay out of shape after the design of the salary incentive system and the growing size of the organization. It is impossible not to attract hatred.

Li Xiang's evaluation of the Musks is lavish compared with Tesla, and even thinks that Musk's character may be the biggest uncertain factor affecting the development of Tesla.

However, my understanding is that this evaluation should be a praise for the negative perspective of American talented entrepreneurs. The meaning behind it is similar to whether it will be difficult for people to continue after Steve Jobs. Musk, who has good ears and eyes, is too difficult to find a perfect successor. For example, if you take a bite on an apple, you can't help feeling that the bite is not as beautiful as it used to be.

Tesla can form the primary culture that Li wants to talk about, Musk is of course the key, and what he is doing on Twitter is now "outrageous". I am more inclined to believe that he is solving the biggest problem he faced after becoming the richest man he said in an interview: it is very difficult for valuable people to tell him the truth sharply.

You see, the first self-cultivation of the richest man is to be cautious and get rid of the information cage customized for No.1. Although Jobs said at the time that he didn't need much information, on the one hand, Jobs and Musk were fundamentally different; on the other hand, what Jobs meant was that if you are leading the times, then listening to too much information from ordinary people, for example, the information of the vast majority of users that our company loves to hear, is not conducive to sharpening corporate innovation.

Of course, no matter what, with our stand-in mentality, the greatness of rival entrepreneurs is difficult to sustain, which is a good thing. Isn't Apple easier to deal with in the post-Jobs era? At least it's not the kind of fruit that can drive a behemoth's opponent to death.

So let's get back to being brave.

At least this year, we can't face the slaughtering price reduction of Tesla in recent years, so let's put our hope directly on the collapse of Tesla brought about by Musk's character. The only one who is afraid of collapse is himself.

This year, in the most timid year of the zodiac, Chinese Autobots must be brave. Not only the bravery of embracing the new era as we have always said before, but also the bravery of introspection caused by the previous strategic miscalculation of many enterprises.

Take Tesla as an example. I don't know whether Chinese auto companies have really seriously examined Tesla in these years. From the information that can be seen from the outside, everyone will think that our enterprise can kill Tesla and Tesla every minute, that is, an enterprise that ignores the safety of users' lives, or Tesla is an espionage enterprise, so don't buy it.

I believe that although car companies are happy to see the reversal of public opinion, most of them should not look at the company in the same way internally. But it is really not clear whether everyone, as Li Xiang said, did not see clearly Tesla's real advantages.

And what Li wants to say that Tesla wins in brand, service and charging stakes, is that really the case? And the so-called first principle, for the domestic scale of more than (annual output value of more than 100 billion) of the current situation of corporate culture is really close to metaphysics, press it or not.

This year, the market jittery caused by Tesla's steep price cuts has once again raised the most traditional wake-up call for the automobile industry as a mass-produced manufacturing industry: cost control! Control costs! Control costs!

Automobile has been developed for 130 or 40 years, which industry reshuffle, no matter it is scientific and technological innovation, process innovation, management innovation, the background color does not finally fall on the word cost. Which is not Ford's assembly line or Toyota's lean process control? Did BYD break out last year because it is Huawei in the auto industry, not because electric cars have the strongest cost control in China on the basis of high quality?

If you look at SpaceX, Musk's manufacturing philosophy is to require companies to achieve technological breakthroughs, but at the same time to achieve a significant reduction in costs. So when Musk buys Tesla, auto giants and participants in the new era should be aware of such a competitor and be prepared to one day have to face a sudden sharp drop in the price of a Tesla. Even if Musk clears Tesla today, the advantages of this new production model and cost control will continue until his successor turns it into a bloated, long-term accumulation that is not easy to solve.

Therefore, in this year of the Rabbit, the Autobots should first bravely unify their cognition into the examination of the key gap between our enterprise and Tesla. In my opinion, this is not a point to avoid or detour. Technically, you can overtake and change lanes, but in terms of system and cost, it is necessary to have the courage to innovate. Perhaps after Toyota Kiichiro founded the Toyota Lean model, the auto industry has not had to face such a change of life for too long. But Tesla's shocking drop now should be enough to let the car companies react.

This may also be the most painful part for Toyota. In my opinion, Toyota's entanglement is not about whether electrification is faster or slower. What it needs to face most is that the TNGA, which originally thought Toyota could take the lead in terms of cost and technology for at least a decade, could not compete with Tesla in the era of electric cars, although we did not understand but thought it was very powerful. That's why Toyota wants to extend the life of its fuel vehicles anyway, even better until the day when the hydrogen-powered vehicles are replaced directly.

In 2023, Chinese car companies must face the pain brought by Tesla, who has cut prices, and must more carefully examine the cost of Tesla's model and the new positioning of the industry defined by technological innovation, and then bravely catch up with their own advantages. Never forget to bring your own advantages. I remember the lines of Zhang Xueyou, a beggar in "Evil from the East and the West": who said you can't run around with your wife.

Of course, while reforming itself, the industry should also shoot bravely at the unreasonable status quo of the supply chain. The supply chain of any industry should share the pain of industrial change with the final product, except for those companies that hold up the paradoxical banner of free hardware.

The reasonable pricing of any end product, but the phenomenon that it is always difficult to reduce the cost to a reasonable category because of the capital ambition or monopoly status of the supply chain can only be short-lived. If there is something wrong with the development of the relevant supply chain enterprises or industries, then the car companies should work together to correct it. China's industry associations can not count on, car companies must be braver in the face of this problem, but also more United, to form a concerted action, the anti-monopoly, the fight against the local tycoon.

When I chat with the marketing executives of many car companies, I always feel some pain and anxiety while being positive. Even if the R & D product factory has begun to follow the new automobile manufacturing system model represented by Tesla, the difficulties of the marketing side can not be solved in a day.

Marketing also takes courage in this year of the Rabbit.

On the one hand, it is the courage to get through internally. Within the marketing, we should really get through the market public relations and sales and after-sales. From two faithful to guide, one is loyal to the brand, the other is loyal to the user, the two basic points are really effectively linked together. In recent years, there are fewer and fewer cases of simple sales success at the marketing end, and the successful sustainability of brand-driven sales is becoming more and more obvious.

Marketing also strives to, rather than avoid establishing an efficient and smooth cooperation path with products and R & D, that market public relations do not understand products at all, or R & D and manufacturing have no user concept at all, will greatly increase the probability of failure of new products, and will also greatly shorten the life cycle of successful products. The cost of this is far greater than the cost savings of casually cutting the budget.

Of course, it's always impossible for you to expect advice from one of my media to cut the marketing budget. Car companies have to increase their marketing budget, but they have to use it efficiently. The principle is to finally complete the rendezvous of human, media and service resources from the brand side and the client side.

On the other hand, it is the real establishment of the financial relationship between users and enterprises. Clarify the difference between user marketing and user co-building. The former is to exchange orders through input costs, which is not the same as market input, and is basically similar to the logic of price reduction. It is nothing more than a simple price reduction, on the one hand, it really does not move, on the other hand, it has been rolled up for ten years, and the effect of direct price reduction is not good.

The co-construction of users is a new marketing relationship that enterprises should really establish. Marketing needs to define the content jointly built by users from the perspective of the whole brand and enterprise, so as to obtain these effective content sustainably and feed back to all departments of the enterprise through the construction of user system.

The two are not contradictory, and the latter, including the former, will also make the former more efficient. Of course, it is now the wish of every enterprise to communicate with users. CEO appears, there is no user content in the speech, and the press conference does not meet with users, which is like being slow to the users. This is also understandable, since the configuration, profits are involved, so easy to volume the content of course will not be missed.

The starting point of this matter must be good, and there is no need to persuade, otherwise it will look like Benhua does not like users in general. As a car user, I am always happy to see car companies give way to profits and fancy fans every month. But as a media, it is necessary to build a user system, in the final analysis, to get along with others, that is, three words, believe in the power of love, pay attention to the moderation of love, and abide by the rules of love. Otherwise, the matter of user operation will inevitably be destroyed by perfection in the end. Either fall in love into hate, or make do with it.

Love really takes courage.

In 2023, automakers are no longer obsessed with predicting the end of change. What kind of streetcar must be the end, who can say that hydrogen will not take electricity instead in 10 to 15 years, not to mention solid-state batteries on the road that sound like a solution to problems, including the residual value of used cars?

Which will win in the end, power change or recharge? It is difficult to judge the pros and cons, which depends to a large extent. For example, I have always thought that power exchange is more reasonable, social efficiency is higher, and behavior habits are closer to refueling, but if an enterprise like Tesla succeeds in the long term, then overcharging must be one of the mainstream ways to replenish energy.

Even the most accurate prediction of the future will require the most determined and courageous landing by 2023. When Tesla's name is a price cut that follows the corporate philosophy, showing great lethality, the rabbit's smart cute with watery red eyes no longer works, and it is serious to sharpen the mater on the ground and bite the talent.

Let us be brave in the timidest years.

Finally, I am timid to add that I am not particularly boasting, nor am I particularly black. If Tesla really continues to slaughter the price to more than a hundred thousand, I even think that the state should oppose its monopoly instead of relying on all kinds of KOL people to hack.

I hope BYD can sell 4 million cars this year. I also hope the world is full of good luck. I also hope that Chang'an will last for more than 12 hours and the Great Wall will never fall down. I hope Wei Xiaoli can live everywhere. I hope there will be no boundaries, whether it is made by Huawei or not. I even hope that Xiaomi will turn into rice by building cars, Evergrande will pay off its debts by Hengchi, and Jia Yueting will jump back to Huanggang.

I hope the Autobots will be brave in the right and sustainable way.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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