Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The Hong Kong stock market represented by Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology has maintained its upward trend in recent three months. On February 1, the Hang Seng Index opened high. By the close of the day, the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 3.37%, while Baidu, Beige, Fast Hand, Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent and other major component stocks rose.

The fourth quarter and full-year results of 2022 are disclosed soon, and the market is generally optimistic about the fundamentals of fast hands despite short-term liquidity and external news factors affecting share prices. Recently, a number of institutions issued fast-hand performance prospects, optimistic about their performance during the performance period.

The dividend release in the fourth quarter of e-commerce peak season is expected to achieve the expected target of GMV for the whole year

Jefferies expects total revenue to rise 12 per cent year-on-year to Rmb27.4bn in the fourth quarter of last year, based on peak e-commerce seasons and live annual events. At the same time, overall and overseas business losses will continue to narrow in the fourth quarter.

Outside the direct broadcast room scenario, the penetration rate and conversion rate of fast-hand e-commerce continue to improve by expanding Short Video and planting grass. According to the data released in the third quarter of 2022, the monthly active buyers of fast-hand e-commerce exceed 100 million, and the payment penetration rate exceeds 15%, which continues to increase year-on-year.

Goldman Sachs analysis, fast-hand e-commerce GMV in Q4 will achieve a single quarter of 30% growth, the full year is expected to achieve 900 billion GMV expected target. Combined with the relevant data of the Fast Hand E-commerce New Year Festival (brand and fast brand growth GMV increased by 100% year-on-year), the bank believes that this growth trend of Fast Hand E-commerce will continue in 2023.

Advertising recovery or better than expected is one of the advertising industry's top priorities

Credit Suisse believes Fast Hand will make a leapfrog breakthrough in the fourth quarter of 2022. According to the calculation and tracking of third-party data by this bank, DAU and user usage duration continued to improve in the fourth quarter of Fast Hand.

Credit Suisse expects Q4 revenue to grow 14% year-on-year to Rmb27.9 billion. Among them, advertising revenue recovery is likely to exceed investors 'expectations and is expected to grow by 11%. The bank reiterated that fast hands are one of the preferred targets in the online advertising industry.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that Fast Hand was one of the few online advertisers to stand out in the fourth quarter. Based on this, the fast hand target price was raised from HK $93 to HK $96, maintaining the "Buy" rating. Looking forward to the first half of the year, the bank has a positive attitude towards the development of digital advertising industry driven by macro environment and consumption recovery_"Fast hand is one of the main beneficiaries of recovery, and there is room for further improvement of monetization rate. "

According to the "2022 China Internet Advertising Data Report" previously released by the industry, the structural adjustment of the Internet advertising market has stepped into the deep water area. Influenced by macro environmental factors, the market scale has been adjusted for the first time. However, enterprises represented by byte, fast hand, Meituan and Jingdong maintain steady growth, becoming the main driving force for stabilizing the market and playing an important role in market balance in the repeated impact of epidemic situation. From the perspective of media platform types, the structure of Internet video advertisements is further inclined to Short Video, and Short videos are also the only category that shows growth in both media platforms and advertising forms.

In 23 years, it is expected to realize the overall turn-around. Institutions raise target prices and maintain the rating of "overweight."

J. P. Morgan believes that the improvement of macro environment is conducive to the traffic realization efficiency of Short Video platform, and the revenue of fast-hand advertising and e-commerce business will accelerate again. It is expected that the overall turn-around of fast-hand in the second half of this year will become more and more likely. At the same time, taking into account the results achieved by operating leverage and cost control measures, the bank maintained its fast-hand "overweight" rating and raised its target price from HK $75 to HK $93.

CICC analysis, fast hand as Short Video track head company, business performance is expected to benefit from the domestic economic environment recovery and consumer demand recovery, at the same time, organizational structure adjustment may help to improve the flow realization efficiency. At the user level, Q4 last year was driven by events such as the World Cup and e-commerce promotion. The fast-hand users performed well, the user traffic or reached a new high, and the results of customer acquisition efficiency optimization will continue to appear.

On the news side,"Fast Hand has New Year Flavor" New Year series activities recently officially ended, from Spring Festival red envelope interaction to online temple fair, then to the old iron party, want to see you New Year K song conference and other performance activities,"Cloud New Year" has become more and more users 'choice. Industry data shows that during the Spring Festival, the average daily traffic of 5G nationwide increased by about 60% year-on-year. In terms of average daily traffic of mobile App, chattering, fast hand, Tencent video, beeping, etc. ranked in the forefront.

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