Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The independent graphics card market still does not belong to the buyer.

In the third quarter of last year, global shipments of independent graphics cards were only 14 million yuan, down 42% from the same period last year, the lowest in 20 years.

The share price of the market leader Nvidia plunged 60%, and the market share of AMD hit a multi-decade low. Intel, a new player in the industry, took advantage of the chaos and quickly occupied 4% of the market share. With the increase of the base, the growth rate slowed down, and it was difficult to find a breakthrough in the depressed market.

The failure of manufacturers is accompanied by a howl in the consumer market, and users are still waving banknotes, but they are not interested in the day-to-day screening. Manufacturers who have fallen into the doldrums intend to control the market, and the new "dessert card" has been absent.

Money is not easy to buy, there is a market also temporarily do not sell, why the independent graphics card market presents such a strange situation?

Last year, Nvidia founder Huang Renxun ushered in another wave of public opinion peak, and the title of "Lao Huang" was associated with many animals in the mouth of the majority of PC users.

This kind of abuse begins with mining, but does not end with mining accidents.

As the core of computing power, independent graphics cards should have entered thousands of households and become happy "angels" for the majority of users, but they were sent into the mine.

In particular, the mid-and high-end 60-plus graphics cards have become the first choice for mine bosses because of the increase in the overall mining rate brought about by strong computing power. In reality, miners still work shifts, and independent graphics cards entering the mine can only work at full capacity 24 hours a day, 24 hours a day, all year round. Even the "angels" have changed beyond recognition.

With the growing tide of mining, mine bosses gradually become the main force of buyers, there is a strong run on the middle and high-end independent market, and the number of products flowing to ordinary users plummets, followed by a wave of hype. The majority of ordinary users, who are already difficult to pick up the goods, either tuck the banknotes they waved back into their trouser pockets, or smash them out in tears and take the offer at a high level.

As the actual performance of the same generation AMD graphics card is lower than that of Nvidia, the number of users and hype run is not like the N card market, "AMD,Yes!" Become the next best self-comfort for users, but also reflects the anger and helplessness of users for the current situation of the N-card market.

The first wave of curses at Huang Renxun broke out. Mining boom, Nvidia independent graphics card shipments have not changed much, but also continue to allow the market frenzy, perhaps wholesale volume, mining quality assurance failure, this large number of shipments and after-sales "worry-free" business is really easy.

Anyway, it's all for sale, so why not do it? business logic is "no problem".

As the cryptocurrency market was empty, the mining tide turned into a mining accident. A large number of math angels have walked out of the mine, their bodies have long been dilapidated, but they still need to play to their value as long as they are still alive.

It is not surprising that the second-hand channel has become the hardest-hit area of the mine card, and it is still surprising that some official channels have also become the digest place of the mine card.

Some brands that have long been absent from the relevant models of graphics cards have been in stock quickly after the mining accident. We do not rule out the possibility that the supply node coincides with the mine accident, but how low it is, as can be seen from the relevant data in the third quarter of last year, and the consumer market has already given a judgment.

When users turn to the secondary market, they are just gambling. Ragged broken-winged angels are changed into new clothes, extremely rare individual buyers are overwhelmed by a large number of refurbished mine card sellers, users want to buy a non-mine graphics card, which is tantamount to "lighting autumn incense", and no one is Tang Bohu. Most users can only get caught up in the agony of "having fun and dying" and waiting for new products.

And Nvidia 40 series graphics cards come out, still choose to turn a blind eye to the status quo. The first models are 90 and 80. Nvidia, which has no brand to boost demand, has just launched a flagship model that is not urgently needed in the market, pushing the new order from high to low, which obviously cannot completely fill the gap between supply and demand.

Take advantage of the buyer's backlog of anxiety, perhaps tens of thousands of yuan of flagship models with new sales imagination, the business model is still "no problem."

The majority of ordinary users expect to fail again, and the abuse of Huang Renxun on the network is numerous. There is still room for improvement in the actual performance of AMD. Intel temporarily occupies the middle and low end, and users have no choice but to do so under the absolute dominance of Invida's 80% market share.

The global independent graphics card market is in the doldrums, Nvidia obviously wants to make as much profit as possible through the high premium of its flagship products, even if the C-end market is difficult to recover for a while, B-end is enough to survive, and the dominant advantage is difficult to shake.

B side expands territory, C side tells stories, perhaps in Nvidia's view, gamers are no longer the main customers, but productivity is.

Last year, revenue from Q3 and Nvidia reached $5.93 billion, down 17% from Q2. In spite of this, under the background of C-end pressure, Nvidia is far more alive than AMD, whose market share has dropped to more than 10%, and its B-end advantage has long been far behind its competitors.

Nvidia products account for 90% of the top 500 supercomputers in the world, and Nvidia acceleration cards, the four major cloud service platforms in the world, also occupy the largest market share. With the widespread adoption of its latest GPU and Omniverse as a computing-enhanced visualization standard, Nvidia has endless new stories.

Nvidia's AI plan, after crazy expansion in recent years, is firmly bound to Microsoft, Google, Alibaba, Oracle, Amazon and other industry leaders, and laboratories, data centers, cloud services and other fields have been surrounded by Nvidia.

The leading edge of AI technology is enough to enable it to achieve the effect that the C-end is not bright and the B-end is not bright in the market.

Last year, Q3 Nvidia's data center-related revenue reached $3.83 billion, or about 64 per cent of total revenue. The well-known gaming business has revenue of $1.57 billion, which is only about 26% of total revenue. It is worth noting that the game business remains in the doldrums, with revenue down 51% year-on-year and 23% month-on-month.

Once the main force of revenue has become the weak side of revenue, the game business is still a drag on the overall revenue of Nvidia, affecting the stock price rebound. Telling a new story may be more effective than waiting for the market to pick up.

At the CES 2023 event earlier this month, Nvidia announced the launch of the GeForce NOW cloud gaming platform, and the first batch of supported automakers were Hyundai, BYD and Polar, models based on its Drive hardware.

Traditional car companies are likely to be the main direction of Nvidia in the early stage, with a large user base and obvious deficiencies in games and entertainment. In the field of game boarding, Nvidia is able to export mature software and hardware, which is difficult to match with soft Steam, hard AMD and Qualcomm. In the game competition of car companies, Nvidia has no decent opponent for the time being.

The core factor to achieve this step is to match the needs of car dealers.

Autopilot leads to the battle of computing power, and Nvidia enters the market with the advantage of AI soft power, which can also be seen as the technology accumulation on the B side that promotes the C-side efficiency breakthrough. From Orin to Thor, the single computer has reached the world's leading 2000TOPS, and the Qualcomm 8155 is defenseless.

From 2015 to the present, Nvidia's boarding motives can be seen as hardware pre-embedded, and now the software is about to be closed.

Although the revenue related to automobile and embedded technology is US $251 million for the time being, it has increased by 86% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month. In the cycle of "pre-buried net", the business revenue of this sector is likely to change rapidly, and the game business related to its strength will also receive a positive stimulus.

It remains to be seen whether the data center will be able to recreate the glory of the data center, but in the automotive industry, Nvidia is recreating a dominant situation.

With the B end to save the C end and the weak side as the breakthrough point, Nvidia is obviously pinning its hopes on the new storyline, and the consumer market of independent graphics cards is not as important as it used to be.

Multi-end games have gradually become mainstream, fragmented time to take over entertainment, the business model has been "no problem" of Nvidia, focusing on the timing to see business opportunities.

Dessert card is not Nvidia's "dessert" 90 series sales exceeded 130000 yuan, 80 series also won 30,000 yuan of sales before and after the launch, since then the high price led to its sales growth slowed.

The launch of 4070 seems to be the rhythm that Yingweida is familiar with, one level "fly" for a while, but do not take out the long-awaited 4060. Whether most ordinary players can get out of the shadow of mining cards will have to wait. For Nvidia, the next step must be to release the volume of dessert cards, but time can be delayed.

Nvidia knows what the 60 model means to users and knows more about its product advantages.

With the chip manufacturing process approaching 1nm, Moore's Law is facing failure, which alone shows that the market needs a new story. Light pursuit, DLSS is not bogus demand is not important, the important thing is to successfully open the door of users, Nvidia can continue to raise the price of Duxian. The novelty of users may disappear, but the price, which has been raised for two generations, is clearly not going back to the past.

It is revealed that the price of the 60 series graphics card has increased by 10% again on the basis of the previous generation, and the theoretical performance has been improved by only 20% compared with the previous generation. Netizens are roughly divided into two arguments, one is "really fragrant" and the other is "squeezing toothpaste".

It is not difficult to understand that for Duxian users who are stumbled by mineral cards and controlled by Nvidia, the price increase of the new generation of dessert cards can be accepted as long as the price of the new generation of dessert cards is not outrageous; and during the period when buyers and sellers are caught in a game, the number of Duxian models with the largest number in the world has changed from 1060 to 1650, and these users calmly stay out of it.

It is obviously time-consuming and laborious to reverse the user mood, and it is more practical for every node of the new product from high to low to grab high profits as much as possible.

The ban on game consoles has been lifted, and many masterpieces are still in the habit of monopolizing. Host pulled away a group of senior players, after the skyrocketing price of graphics cards, once again experienced the joy of cost-effective. As Sony's content is strong and Microsoft's "banknote" ability to subsidize XGP continues, Nvidia may gradually realize that it is difficult for the market to regain its former glory.

Moreover, Duxian market AMD and Intel are still pursuers, and Nvidia still has the ability to control the market. And the automobile-related business will undoubtedly become its next incremental market. Even if you can really get on the car after the GPU, Nvidia will be able to copy and paste its existing advantages.

Currently, Nvidia does not emulate the cooperation model between Tesla and AMD, but takes the established path of cloud games into its hardware pre-embedded, which has exclusive advantages in terms of coverage and user threshold. Without Qualcomm temporarily in the battle of computing power, its software and hardware will be further adopted more widely.

The stock price has stopped falling, the new story is magnificent and wonderful, the dawn of manufacturers is in front of us, and the darkest moment of users continues.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: photon Planet (ID:TMTweb), by Xiong Xing

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