Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

In 2022, the world has not yet got rid of the impact of the epidemic, and many industries are wavering in the wind and rain. even under economic conditions, there is an industry in the world that is growing rapidly, that is, new energy vehicles.

Global pure electric vehicle sales in 2022 were 7.8 million, up 68 per cent from a year earlier and the share exceeded 10 per cent for the first time, according to a survey by auto sales research firm LMC Automotive and website EV-Volumes. Global sales of new energy vehicles reached an all-time high of about 10 million in 2022, Bloomberg added.

All the glory is in the past, and with the arrival of 2023, there are many situations in the automobile industry, such as the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles in China, and the rising share also means that they are more vulnerable to the economic crisis. Looking forward to 2023, what direction will the new energy vehicle industry surpass?

According to Bloomberg's forecast, global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 13.6 million in 2023, maintaining a growth rate of more than 30%, which is much lower than the exaggerated figures in previous years. However, unlike the new car-building forces that played a leading role in previous years, established car companies are bound to rise in 2023.

In 2022, Volkswagen's global sales of new energy vehicles are about 330000. Although the figures are not eye-catching, they surpass all the new car-building powers and are second only to BYD and Tesla in the world. At the CES conference held some time ago, Volkswagen showed a new energy vehicle. It is speculated that Volkswagen will crazily promote new energy vehicles based on the ID series in the year of ID.7,2023.

Toyota, one of the two giants in the auto industry, has a lower voice in the field of new energy vehicles because established car companies are too deeply involved in the supply chain. Akio Toyoda has said that 5 million people in Japan will lose their jobs if new energy vehicles are forcibly converted. However, the launch of Toyota bZ3, Rongfang RAV4 and other products in 2022 also let us see Toyota's action.

Tu Yuan: FAW Toyota veteran car company is still there, as long as it is determined to develop into the new energy vehicle industry, it is not too late for transformation.

As for model changes, Bloomberg predicts that 75% of new energy vehicles sold in 2023 will be pure electric vehicles. For ordinary people, the advantage of new energy vehicles is not environmental protection, but low travel costs, electricity is much cheaper than fuel, so under conditions, pure electric vehicles are a better choice.

However, it also depends on the market. China's area is too large and its population density is high. As far as the current charging station construction is concerned, there is nothing wrong with daily travel, and it may fall into longevity anxiety during the holidays. Ralf Brandst ä tter, head of Volkswagen's China operations, said that one out of every four cars sold in China in 2022 was a plug-in hybrid, and the share could rise to 1/3 in 2023 next year.

Thus it can be seen that the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles (including incremental electric vehicles) can compete with pure electric vehicles in the Chinese market. Although the travel cost of hybrid vehicles is higher than that of pure electric vehicles, it is significantly lower than fuel vehicles, especially driving in cities, coupled with the convenience of supplementary energy, which is suitable for domestic consumers.

Of course, although Volkswagen and Toyota accelerate their transformation, it is likely that BYD and Tesla will be the top sellers in 2023. In 2022, Tesla won the first place in global pure electric vehicle sales, while BYD won the first place in new energy vehicle sales. Tesla has realized the impact of high prices on sales, so he began to reduce prices in the second half of 2022, with good results.

Tu Yuan: Tesla Tesla also plans to launch a Model 2 model with a price of about 170000 yuan, but it is not expected to be available until 2024. Considering the current prices of Model 3 and Model Y, it is expected that it will still rank second in new energy vehicle sales in 2023.

It was revealed online some time ago that BYD's target sales in 2023 is 4 million vehicles. Combined with BYD's data of 1.85 million vehicles in 2022, it is almost impossible to achieve the target.

In 2023, BYD, Tesla and Volkswagen will be the protagonists of the new energy vehicle market. The primary task of the new power of car building is not to compete with established car companies, but to achieve profits and stop losses as soon as possible.

For the vast majority of new car-building forces, the situation is not optimistic, long-term losses are bound to lead to a loss of investor confidence. Weimar, for example, has recently exposed a large number of closures of direct stores and dealers.

02. China, the Holy Land of New Energy vehicles in 2023, the biggest dilemma facing the new energy vehicle industry is the subsidy decline. Not only China, but also the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom are reducing subsidies for new energy vehicles. Long-term subsidies for new energy vehicles will have an impact on national finance. With the increasing sales of new energy vehicles, subsidies will inevitably be reduced little by little.

On January 1, 2023, China's new energy vehicle industry bid farewell to subsidies, and many new energy models announced an increase in prices. Despite the elimination of subsidies for new energy vehicles, China remains the world's largest market for new energy vehicles, and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 8 million in 2023, accounting for about 59 per cent of total sales, according to Bloomberg.

In other words, if new energy car companies want to grow, China is definitely the most critical market. Europe and the United States are also the main markets for new energy vehicles, but their combined share is lower than that of China. After the arrival of the era of new energy vehicles, China's automobile industry has bid farewell to decades of backwardness and finally stood at the forefront of the world, but we also understand that qualified car companies can not only sell at home, but must go global.

Photo Source: according to BYD's Bloomberg news agency, Chinese car companies have entered the European market and have gained more than 10% share. This figure is not particularly high, but it is proof that Chinese car companies are going global. BYD, Xilai and other car companies are actively exploring overseas markets in 2022. Compared with old-fashioned foreign car companies, the more competitive Chinese market has given birth to more cost-effective products. These products will become the key for these car companies to compete with overseas car companies.

Taken together, the increase in the global share of new energy vehicles will slow down in 2023, and only China can maintain a high growth rate. The China Automobile Association predicts that passenger car sales in China will reach 23.8 million in 2023, and about 1/3 of them will be new energy vehicles, according to Bloomberg estimates. It is estimated that from 2025 to 2030, the share of domestic new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will reach an inflection point in the future. After 2030, the share of domestic new energy vehicles may exceed that of fuel vehicles.

New energy vehicle sales growth, in addition to looking at the production power of newly listed models, there are two important factors, that is, basic ecological construction and technological upgrading.

03. Only by upgrading the technology in an all-round way can we enhance consumers' desire to buy cars. As mentioned above, plug-in hybrid cars are popular in China because of their large area, high population density and high demand for charging stations. Bloomberg predicts that there will be 1.3 million new public charging stations worldwide in 2023, bringing the total to 4.1 million.

Allocated to the world, the new number does not seem to be much. The good news is that Bloomberg bluntly said that the number of new public charging stations depends entirely on the Chinese market. Europe and North America lag far behind. Chinese car companies are very dedicated to the construction of car charging networks.

However, considering the charging time of electric vehicles, it is only the addition of charging stations, which can not make car owners completely bid farewell to battery life anxiety. There are two ways to avoid battery life anxiety, one is to reduce the charging time to be comparable to fuel cars, and the other is to greatly improve the battery life of electric vehicles.

At present, the fast charging power of new energy vehicles has reached about 250kW, although there is room for improvement, but it is unlikely to catch up with fuel vehicles, after all, too much power may be dangerous. Improving battery life through large batteries is a more economical solution.

Tu Yuan: pixabay2022 year GAC Eian, Weilai and other car companies have listed some pure electric vehicles with a range of 1000 kilometers, but the price is generally expensive. In 2023, our biggest expectation is another breakthrough in battery technology, and the price of products with a range of more than 1000 kilometers can be greatly reduced. It is the middle of winter, and many pure electric car owners are plagued by battery life, which is understandable in winter, but cross-city travel has become a problem for some cars that already have a range of about 500km.

In addition to electric vehicles, there is another category of new energy vehicles, that is, hydrogen energy vehicles. Foreign Toyota, Hyundai, Changan, Guangzhou Automobile and BAIC are all engaged in the research and development of hydrogen energy vehicles. Limited by the storage and transportation costs of hydrogen energy, the commercial value of hydrogen energy is not as good as that of electric vehicles. Hydrogen-powered vehicles will also have some new products on the market in 2023, but it will be difficult to make major technological breakthroughs.

There is also a cutting-edge technology in the automotive field-self-driving, the relevant laws and regulations are becoming more and more perfect, and the commercial use of self-driving technology is getting closer and closer. Both domestic Wesai Technology and Huawei are committed to reducing the price of lidar and making self-driving a standard car in the future, which has achieved good results. The price of lidar will fall further in 2023, which will help speed up the commercial use of self-driving technology.

As ordinary consumers, we are not concerned about environmental protection and carbon emissions, but the cost and convenience of travel. Every time Lei Technology talks about buying a car, no one will recommend buying an all-electric car, because there is no condition to install a charging pile, and the construction of the charging station is not perfect, either choose a fuel car or buy a hybrid car.

In 2023, China will still be the largest car market in the world and the center of new energy vehicles. The whole industry is booming, but fuel vehicles will still be the mainstream. China does not have a clear time to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, at this rate, I am afraid that by 2040, there will still be a domestic market for fuel vehicles.

As for how to buy a car in 2023, it mainly depends on personal use, there are more urban travel, and there are conditions for the installation of charging piles, pure electric vehicles can be considered, while hybrid cars can be considered if it is not convenient to install charging piles. As for fuel-fueled cars, they are suitable for people who often run long distances or have a higher sense of driving.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: Feng Xingxing (ID:fengchuxing2021), author: lost Soul.

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