Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

When the narrow road meets, the brave wins

The Lunar New year is approaching, and the spring of the game industry's "rabbit" in 2023 is also approaching.

Looking back over the past year, the growth rate of the domestic game market slowed down due to the downward economic environment and the policy of game version numbers. Especially in the boutique new game market, there may be a window period.

According to nuclear competition statistics, the average monthly volume of new mobile games in the domestic market in 2022 is about 128, one grade lower than that of the previous year. The products that are stable in the game bestseller Top10 are basically old acquaintances, and "new faces" are either as rare as morning stars or "hot for three minutes".

Of course, from the perspective of coping strategy, the key words emphasized by game manufacturers in 2022 are "going out to sea / globalization" and "reviving old products / sustainable operation". However, with the normalization of the game version number and the resumption of the release of the imported game version number, the new game market in 2023 should coruscate the Spring Festival. Some of these products are not only concerned by players, but also may affect the domestic revenue and strategic planning of game manufacturers.

The game version number, without an one-year time limit, the biggest surprise left to the game industry in 2022 is the December version. The wish of the new year ago has not been made, and it becomes the goal to be realized after the countdown.

Among the 128 new game numbers (84 domestic games and 44 imported games were issued on December 28, 2022), a number of games are regarded as blockbuster products by leading manufacturers, and some are even jokingly called "new games that have been around for many years".

In response to the question mentioned by some netizens that "after the game gets the version number, it needs to be online within a year, otherwise the version number will be withdrawn", Jingjing consulted a number of practitioners in the industry, and their unified reply was: I have not heard of such a rule.

It is understood that the game that has obtained the version number may need to reapply when the large version is updated, but it is similar to the nature of content review instead of reapplying for the version number. Of course, there are situations where you need to reapply for the version number, such as a category change (the original MMO is changed to FPS) or other major changes, not to mention the version number.

If you only cut in from an information point of the version number, it is difficult to guess the launch time of the product. For example, Tencent "DNF mobile" won the version number in 2017, but the game hanbok was officially launched in March 2022, and there is no clear message from the national service so far.

To put it simply, different manufacturers have different rhythms in the promotion of new products.

Taking into account the past year or so, the domestic new tourism market is relatively barren. First of all, players pay close attention to when these boutique games will be launched. Secondly, we hope to start with the version number, testing, operation and other information, and look forward to the changes in the H1 (first half of the year) new game market in 2023. Guess whether the so-called "window period" will last.

On the other hand, in 2022, domestic manufacturers set off a "resurrection stream" to deal with the previously uncertain industry environment.

Jingcore has also mentioned in the article "resurrection of new version numbers, old products, game manufacturers 2023", including Tencent's "Master of Rhythm", NetEase's "Secret confrontation", Perfect World's "My Origin" and so on. it may be a win-win solution for game manufacturers to take into account both cost-effective and players' sustenance.

What needs to be put forward is the news that NetEase Blizzard stopped cooperation in the same period (termination time: January 23, 2023). On the one hand, we feel sorry for this, on the other hand, we also see that Blizzard is the opportunity brought by the influx of a large number of users into the market after the suspension of the game in China.

For example, Miha you "original God" built-in resident card game "Seven Saints call", NetEase "against the current cold" World of Warcraft veterans, and so on, may want to intercept or correspond to Blizzard "hearth Stone Legend", "World of Warcraft" and other products.

Considering the multiple influencing factors such as version number and industry environment, Jingxin believes that the year 2023 H1 may be a good opportunity for major manufacturers to regroup. In other words, if there is a so-called "window", the possibility for manufacturers to speed up the process of launching new games will be very high.

Tencent NetEase gathered together to test, Ali took the lead from the implementation rhythm of the major manufacturers at this stage, some of its blockbuster products are already preparing for listing.

According to the general understanding, after the new game gets the version number, if you also need to carry out high-density localization testing and tuning, it will generally be launched more than half a year later than the international service / Taiwan service. With "League of Legends Mobile Tour" as a reference, the launch time of national service is 10 months longer than that of international service / Taiwan service.

Of course, the time difference of some global simultaneous release products may be smaller, for example, NetEase's "Diablo: immortal" national service is only a month away from international service; Mihayou's "original God" is a global simultaneous public test.

It should be pointed out that after the new game is issued with a version number, it is not impossible to go online quickly while ensuring the quality of the product. January 10, Ali game telepathy mutual entertainment "three Kingdoms Chess version" opened a paid closed test.

Judging from the whole rhythm of the promotion, the version number was released on December 28, 2022 (the review time is: December 10, 2022), and the newly registered official account was certified on December 27 of the same year. On January 6, 2023, the Chess Edition of the Chronicles of the three Kingdoms released the test information and started the test on January 10. The time interval is less than half a month.

In addition, according to a senior "three Kingdoms Strategic Edition" player, "three Kingdoms Chess version" anchor revealed that the chess version may be officially launched in 2023 Q1.

With this as a reference, the "New year goods" of the two giants Tencent and NetEase may also be expected to be launched in 2023. According to incomplete statistics of nuclear competition, Tencent and NetEase currently have about 20 products to be sent / under research. However, in terms of version numbers, tests and the pace of official community operations, the former may have some advantages in terms of the number of new products in the first half of 2023.

As shown in the picture above, Tencent has obtained version numbers for 16 games, including "intrepid contract", "Destiny Ark", "Bao Ke Meng gathering", "DNF mobile" and other imported blockbuster games. Among them, the version numbers of the first three products are all batch in December 2022.

According to the public information and the official community information of the product, the first three works are all subscribed to the official website. In addition, "Destiny Ark" and "Bao Ke Meng assembly" official account have also been certified and launched.

In addition, on January 11, Tencent IEG K1 Cooperation Department released the "Ark of Destiny" project for social recruitment, including senior game planner, senior brand manager and so on.

It should be pointed out that Jingcore believes that the four imported games of Tencent are expected to be launched in H1 in 2023, and there are other reasons: first, the four high-quality games perform better overseas, and landing on national service may reduce Tencent Games's domestic revenue pressure; second, at this stage, four products may be able to fill the market or step on hot spots in the category.

For example, "Dauntless contract" is already the most mainstream overseas FPS game project as well as one of the e-sports brands. In 2022, Q1 and Q2 continuously set new highs in terms of flow and the number of monthly active users, becoming an important growth section of Tencent's overseas game business. With the domestic suspension of FPS PC games such as "Watch Vanguard: return" and "Fortnite", "Dauntless contract" is expected to become a new fan of FPS core players.

In addition, Tencent has obvious advantages in issuing large DAU products and founding e-sports event experience in China. On January 11, the fist game appointed Lin Song, the head of fist China e-sports and Tengjing Sports, as the president of global mobile business development. In addition, a few days ago, FPX has announced the establishment of a dauntless contract branch, according to industry sources, LGD, LNG, BLG and so on are also preparing relevant teams.

All these factors and signs may also indicate that the "fearless contract" is just around the corner.

In the case of NetEase, games that have already won version numbers, such as "Qiannu Ghost Hidden World record", "Fantasy Life", "all-Star Street Party" and "Peak Express" may also hit the corresponding category market in H1.

Frankly speaking, among the products NetEase knows to be working on, four martial arts theme products such as "Cold hand Tour against the current", "endless Mobile Games", "shooting carvings" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sound" may be paid more attention to. At present, the four products have not been issued with a version number, but all of them have been / are under testing or are expected to be officially available to players in 2023.

Among the new tour forces, Lilith's export to domestic sales, in addition to Tencent, NetEase and other traditional giants, the works of the four Little Dragons in Shanghai in the past two years are also the focus of attention in the circle.

First of all, let's watch Miha Tour. Previously, the company revealed that new works in research include "collapse: star Dome Railway", "Zero" and the shutdown of "Project SH". Among them, the first two works were tested in May and August last year respectively, and the market response was quite high.

Taking into account, at present, the two games have not got the version number. In addition, on January 10, there were media reports that Mihayou said that the company had begun to enter a contraction cycle. One is to review the reasons for the closure of the "Project SH" project, and the other is to sum up that the company has encountered the crisis of "big company disease" after the crazy expansion of enrollment in the past two years. To some extent, the attack pace of Mihayou can also be condensed into the development and changes of the industry in recent years.

In view of Mihayou's control over the quality of the project, as well as the company's internal adjustment at the present stage. Perhaps, the two new works will be some time before the official launch of the national service.

The situation of the four little dragons in the Shanghai game is similar to that of Miha Tour, which should be folded paper. On the one hand, the company also reported that there were a number of project shutdowns and internal adjustment problems last year; on the other hand, although the company announced two masterpieces of "thousand faces" and "infinitely warm" last year, the product is still in its infancy from the demonstration screen of the real machine. and haven't got the version number yet.

Let's take a look at Eagle Corner, which has always been a low-key type. The company's first buyout two-dimensional new film "from Stardust" was exposed in September 2021, and the invitation for a phase of trial was launched in August last year. It is reported that the work is still in the early stage, and the overall development progress does not seem to be as good as that of "next door". In addition, the work has not yet received a version number.

Lilith, by contrast, moves a little faster. The company's leisure social game "Life Party" was issued in April last year, and the new modern military theme SLG "War Fire Medal" was issued in November of the same year.

According to Lilith's previous filing announcement, the Medal of War will be tested in April 2023, while the Life Party has been developed for more than three years and has been tested overseas, perhaps not for long.

Looking back at 2022, the game industry was under a lot of pressure, but some people turned this pressure into a "broken cocoon into a butterfly" motivation. Looking forward to 2023, perhaps the domestic new tourism market will still have a period of "green days", but this time should not be too long. We believe that domestic game manufacturers can bring the spring of "rabbit" to the game industry in 2023 and provide players with a good game experience.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: ID:Coreesports, author: Gui Zhiwei

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