Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Recently, Haitong International analyst Jeff Pu revealed that Apple is currently developing the AirPods Lite, hoping to compete with other cheaper TWS headphones on the market. It is speculated that the Lite version of AirPods could be priced at $129, which translates to about 880 yuan.

As one of the pioneers of TWS headphones, Apple AirPods used to drive up the popularity of the TWS headphone market on its own. As early as 2018, AirPods had 77% of the TWS headset market, according to the data.

The popularity of AirPods once made consumers accept the fact that "the 3.5mm headphone interface is dead". Many mobile phone and digital manufacturers are also scrambling to invest in the research and development of TWS technology. for a time, a large number of low-cost TWS products have flooded into the market, most of which are produced by unknown manufacturers.

What is very puzzling is that even in the more competitive mobile phone market, the iPhone has never had a medium-and low-end "youth version" model. Why does Apple "lower its price" and launch a low-cost AirPods in the TWS field it is proud of?

In the current Air Pods product matrix, is it necessary to have a "youth version" with a price of less than 880 yuan? Does this move intend to make AirPods sink successfully and erode the cheap TWS headphones represented by small and medium-sized manufacturers?

"01" uses "Youth version" to deal with inventory Competition although Apple's AirPods has lost its absolute dominance of the TWS market with the rise of other brands, according to the latest shipping data, AirPods still occupies the first position in the TWS headphone market, beating its competitors.

According to the third-quarter smart headphone market report released by research firm Canalys, Apple's TWS (AirPods, Beats) sales soared 34% year-on-year to 23.8 million in the third quarter of 2022, and its market share increased to 30.9% from 24.6% in the same period the year before.

You know, Samsung (including Harman) TWS products, which rank second, have a market share of just 9%. Because of this, many digital enthusiasts are very puzzled-the TWS market performance is still strong AirPods, why to launch a "youth version" TWS, or even once thought to be the official release of the "smoke bomb".

In fact, although the current sales volume and market share of AirPods are stronger than its competitors, as analyzed by some people in the industry, the dominant position of AirPods in the TWS headset market is not too solid for the time being.

Apple's AirPods market share exceeded 30% in the third quarter of 2022, thanks to the launch of the AirPods Pro 2, which sold 4.2 million AirPods Pro 2 in that quarter, accounting for 20% of all AirPods shipments.

People in the industry have pointed out that every time a new generation of AirPods is launched, it will boost Apple's TWS product sales. However, strong sales of the "little best part" tend to last only one or two quarters, will "return to the original" from high to low.

Looking back at the data released by Canalys in 2021, it is not difficult to find that, thanks to the launch of AirPods 3, Apple's TWS market share also increased from 24.6% in the third quarter to 38.9% in the fourth quarter, and returned to 27.8% in the second quarter of 2022.

This shows that although the AirPods is strong, it is still difficult to give Apple the "lying down and winning" sense of security. If Apple wants to regain the absolute dominance of the TWS market, Apple must increase the market share of the AirPods. The 2018 peak is out of reach, but it is not willing to hover around 30%.

However, after several years of rapid development, now, the global TWS market begins to fall into the stage of stock game, in other words, manufacturers want to tap incremental users, become very difficult, TWS brands are also gradually "volume" immobile.

Since 2016, global shipments of TWS headphones have increased 25-fold in just five years, according to data released by research firm Counterpoint Research. Of this, growth peaked in 2019 and slowed to 24 per cent in 2021.

As a result, Apple already announced plans to reduce AirPods production as early as the first half of 2021. In 2022, rumors of AirPods "cutting orders" abound, and the market share of mainstream TWS manufacturers at home and abroad has also declined.

In the face of the stock market, AirPods wants to increase its market share, and all it can do is to launch lower-priced products and take advantage of product change to seize the sinking market demand for low-and middle-end, non-Apple phone users. At this time, it seems that it is not difficult to understand the news that Apple may launch AirPods Lite.

However, to seize the low-cost headphone market, the price of less than 880 yuan of the "youth version" AirPods, how much chance of winning?

"02" low-cost AirPods can't handle Android users? "not iPhone users, there is really no need to buy AirPods."

When talking about whether the cheaper AirPods Lite is expected to "transform" some Android phone users, digital enthusiast Judy said bluntly that it is difficult, especially in the domestic market where the TWS headphone brand blossoms, Android users actually have a lot of choices for TWS headphones.

As a copywriting planner with digital evaluation from the media, he has come into contact with a lot of TWS products at home and abroad. Although he said bluntly, AirPods Lite has not yet been released, unable to perceive its actual sound quality, coupled with the sound quality feeling is more subjective, horizontal comparison is of little significance.

But in terms of price, AirPods has little competitive advantage even if it sells the Lite version. At present, TWS headphones, the mainstream brand of choice for domestic Android phone users, range in price from 150 to 400 yuan, of which the most popular is the TWS product that costs 200 or 300 yuan.

Search for the word TWS on e-commerce platforms such as JD.com and Tmall, and the top sellers are almost all the products in the above price range. The cumulative reviews of RMB219,199 OPPO Enco Air2 and TWS1 Pro are all more than 500000.

Even if consumers have higher requirements for sound quality, choose products from well-known acoustics manufacturers, such as JBL, Sennheiser and Sony acquired by Samsung, most of the entry-level and mid-range products can be obtained only 400 or 500 yuan, and the performance-to-price ratio is also quite high.

"even if (AirPods) Lite sells for more than 800 yuan, it is still a bit higher than the main products of other brands." Judy bluntly, by contrast, is also more than 800 yuan, users can buy domestic brands of flagship products, well-known acoustic brand mid-range models, but to buy AirPods can only choose the entry-level Lite.

What's more, even if Apple does not launch the AirPods Lite, there is a product positioning similar to it in the AirPods product matrix, and the price is approaching, that is, AirPods 2, which is sold for less than a thousand yuan in formal channels and only 800yuan after the educational discount.

"after the launch of AirPods 3 in 2021, AirPods 2 continued to sell at reduced prices, but the surge in AirPods share in the fourth quarter of that year was driven by the third generation and had little to do with second-generation price cuts. Unless the price is lower, the advantage of AirPods Lite is limited."

Obviously, even if Apple launches the "youth version" of the AirPods, the price of about 880 yuan will have a limited impact on the TWS of other brands. The attractiveness of Android smartphone users also seems to be a little inadequate, making it difficult to quickly capture mid-and low-end demand.

In part of the discussion on the topic of "Apple may launch AirPods Lite," some Android users even said: the reason why they do not consider buying low-cost AirPods is that in addition to more and more products to choose from in the market, similar products from domestic manufacturers have done well enough and have a high performance-to-price ratio.

On the contrary, in recent years, the products launched by Apple are lack of innovation, lack of subversion, and the ability of quality control also has a downward trend. Soon after the launch of AirPods 3, a large number of "fruit fans" complained about its poor workmanship and other problems online.

Since it is difficult for low-cost AirPods to impress Android phone users in the increasingly saturated TWS market, is it tempting for iPhone users? In fact, AirPods faces a strong competitor, far more than "other manufacturers" so simple, there are a large number of "white" products.

"03" 280 yuan high imitation goods become the best replacement? Apple's iPhone accounted for 16% of the world's smartphones in the third quarter of 2022, the second highest in 12 years, according to a new study by Strategy Analytics.

According to CINNO data, iPhone accounted for 23.2% of the mainland smartphone market in November 2022, although it declined slightly from the same period last year, but still ranked first in the mainland market.

However, what is even more puzzling is that iPhone has a considerable number of users in the domestic and global market, so why does AirPods start to sell out instead? Is it possible that mobile phones need iteration, but headphones don't need them?

"for the best fit, I dare not say 100%, but at least 80% to 90% of iPhone users in China will buy AirPods headphones. with other brands of TWS headphones, iPhone may not pop up and lack a sense of ritual."

Komatsu, a businessman in the business of mobile phones and digital accessories, said bluntly that although for the sake of fitness and ritual, many iPhone users would choose to buy AirPods at first, but they found that it was too expensive to use it. "users' AirPods often loses Pods and only Air."

As binaural independent wireless headphones, TWS has a common problem, that is, headphones are often lost.

Users sometimes lose their left ear, sometimes lose their right ear, and some even lose their left and right ears, leaving only a battery compartment. At this time, users can only buy another headset or even a pair of headphones, continue to pair, or even buy a new set.

But not only is the price of the new set of AirPods not cheap, but a single headset is also expensive. On JD.com, some merchants "split zero" to sell headphones. AirPods 3 costs 439 yuan for a single left ear and a single right ear. If the user accidentally loses the "Air", I'm sorry, the warehouse receipt for the third-generation battery sells for 698 yuan.

Data have shown that in 2020 alone, there were 130000 TWS headphones "blind dates" on Xianyu, of which AirPods accounted for more than 60%.

With the loss of too many headphones, iPhone users who feel that they are really spending money will inevitably begin to look for "cost-effective" substitutes, and a large number of "white card" headphones imitating AirPods emerge as the times require.

"there are a lot of white-brand TWS headphones, all from Huaqiangbei, which claim to be the best suited to iPhone phones." Komatsu admitted that at present, among the headphones sold in his store, the ratio of second-hand AirPods to high imitation "white" headphones is about 1:9, almost all of them are iPhone users.

So, what is the price of high imitation AirPods? Komatsu said that the same noise reduction, adapted to the iPhone "white card" headphones, the most expensive not more than 280 yuan, even if lost, users will not have meat pain. As long as the sound quality requirements are not extreme, then Huaqiangbei "white card" TWS is almost the replacement of AirPods.

On pinduoduo, search for the word "Huaqiang North AirPods" and you can also find a large number of related products: among them, the third-generation imitation AirPods headphones, which claim to be the strongest fit iPhone and use "1564A chip", have the highest sales, showing that they have spelled more than 100000 pieces, which shows the great demand.

As early as 2020, there were media reports that according to the incomplete statistics of the supply chain, Huaqiang Beigao imitated "white brand" AirPods shipments have reached 600 million, while as for authentic AirPods, shipments are between 80 million and 90 million.

[conclusion] it is not difficult to see that AirPods, which has become a "fast consumable", is not only difficult to impress Android users with low prices, but also does not seem to have an advantage even among iPhone users. More and more low-cost, high-imitation TWS headphones, which claim to be suitable for iPhone pop-up windows, are also eating into the AirPods market.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: know Notes (ID:dongdong_note), author: know who you are.

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