Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Along with the passing of 2022, there is not only a lot of bad worries, but also the last state subsidy of new energy. People seem to be more concerned about the ten thousand yuan subsidy for the disappearance of pure electric cars, but the loss of 4800 yuan may be even more important for the plug-in mix that has gone through hardships to become mainstream.

Since the curtain of new energy subsidies began in 2010, plug-in hybrid, as one of the only two practical categories in the whole new energy world (sorry for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles), has lived in the shadow of pure electricity almost from beginning to end.

Today, the role played by meddling in the new energy revolution is-perhaps for the first time-moving towards an important position. However, due to a series of problems left over from history in the past, "interruption" has been carrying a confused account for a long time.

From fresh to chicken ribs to Zhenxiang 2021, out of every six new energy vehicles sold, only one is plug-in, the lowest level since 2017. By the first 11 months of 2022, the proportion had increased to 1jump 4.

For the whole new energy category, sales grew by 100% year-on-year in the first 11 months (coincidentally), of which the year-on-year growth rate reached 167%. On the contrary, it is pure electricity, which accounts for the majority of electricity, and the increase of 85% has actually dragged down the entire new energy category.

From 2010 to 2013, BYD Qin was in its infancy in the domestic new energy market, and the annual sales of the whole new energy category did not exceed 20,000 vehicles. Because the total amount is too small, the proportion of plug-in in new energy jumps up and down irregularly between 10% and 30%, which lacks the significance of analysis.

From 2014 to 2018, the gestation period on the eve of the outbreak of new energy in China, sales almost doubled in a year, from 80,000 vehicles to 1 million. The main contribution came from pure electricity, which accounted for 40%, 36%, 24% and 19% respectively from 2014 to 2017, but returned to 25% in 2018.

The domestic auto market of the former plug-in pin crown 5 series PHEV2018 experienced the first negative growth in 30 years, and the new energy market also faced endless eggs under the nest. The total sales remained basically at the million vehicles of the previous year, and even declined slightly in some statistical caliber.

But 2018 was also the beginning of an explosion of new energy in China, which soon got rid of a brief downturn the following year. Especially in the pure electricity market, a series of new brands and new models have emerged first. Domestic Tesla and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV both appeared around 2020.

The mix-in is a big step behind, causing its share to fall back below 20% in the past two years. But by 2021, although the entire new energy market took off at 170% year-on-year growth, it was no longer a drag, but kept its share at 18% at roughly the same rate of growth.

Then there is 2022 (the first 11 months), after four years of dormant, once again achieved an increase in the share of pure electricity, with sales growth of 167% year-on-year, the share of new energy returned to 24.6%. In the statistics of the Federation of passengers, the B-class PHEV model is the fastest growing new energy subcategory.

Why did the status and circumstances of the interruption go through such a ups and downs process? this is the confusion of inserting this account.

Whenever a friend asks about the interruption, the responsible respondent should first ask, "which one are you referring to?" Because when it comes to the name plug-in hybrid / PHEV, there are at least three or three layers of interpretation.

First, from a purely literal point of view, any hybrid vehicle with Plug-in capability should be counted as plug-in / PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle). Different from pure electricity, PHEV is a member of hybrid power in a broad sense; different from HEV hybrid, PHEV is characterized by its ability to plug in.

But when it comes to "meddling" in life, it is only unlikely to refer to the definition level. Because the new energy policy limits the need for pure electric service to be greater than 50km, it can be regarded as plug-in hybrid to enjoy preferential treatment related to new energy vehicles. This is the second level, the interruption under the policy definition.

Pure electric battery life is lower than 50km plug-in models, although in theory, "plug-in", but in practice it is "not plug-in". It is precisely because of policy factors that even in the early days of the development, car companies will deliberately extend the battery of pure electricity to more than 50km, and today's PHEV with less than 50km is even more rare.

Special cases are rare but actually exist. Today is mainly Ferrari SF90 such pure electric supercar, in order to control the weight of pure electric battery is not enough 50km, but also has the function of plug / Plug-in. Fortunately, because it is too far from the lives of ordinary people, there is less deviation between the literal definition level and the actual policy level.

However, the break between technological development, policy definition and public habits brings about the third level, that is, the definition of the details of technological schools, that is, the narrow sense of "interruption" when juxtaposing with "increasing range".

Because the new energy policy does not open a small kitchen for the added program PHEV alone, but is treated as a PHEV. But car companies and consumers regard extended range as another kind of driving force, so they are used to juxtaposing "extended range" with "plug-in". The "interruption" at this time is actually equivalent to "all PHEV except the add-on PHEV".

This kind of confusion is more common today than the previous confusion of "pure electric service is enough 50km". When an ordinary consumer says "plug-in / PHEV", one possibility is that he generally refers to all vehicles that enjoy the PHEV standard in the new energy policy, and the other is that he means "PHEV other than extended range".

To make matters worse, many car companies that mainly promote the add-on program will adopt the caliber of "extended-range electric" rather than "extended-range hybrid" in order to emphasize their electrified properties. This results in the confusing scene that "extended range electric" enjoys "plug-in mixing" policy, which is both "plug-in" and "electric".

Non-stalling replacements need to sort this out first, because the recovery of plug-in / PHEV as a new energy category since 2021 comes from the series add-on PHEV and the series-parallel DHT PHEV with extended range mode. So, unlike the brief rebound of 2018, this mixed recovery will no longer be a flashback.

When the national subsidy was cancelled in 2023, pure electric models lost a subsidy of 9100 yuan to 12600 yuan, and mixed models lost 4800 yuan. At first glance, it seems that the loss of interruption is much smaller than that of pure electricity.

In the past three years, however, the share of A-class and B-class cars in the mixed market has risen from 61% to 76%. This is also reflected in the sales list, there will be more than half of the models with less than 200000 yuan in the top 10 every month.

The jumper happens to be in a period of rapid expansion by focusing on the A-Mel B market, which is highly sensitive to price fluctuations of 5000 yuan. So although the absolute value of the loss subsidy is less than that of pure electricity, the possible impact should not be underestimated.

Plug-in in the past two years has achieved rapid growth, BYD DM-i, ideal and other extended-range or series-parallel DHT models have contributed a major part. The potential for plug-in mixing has been inspired by the recent technological revolution, from the early days or new attempts, to the embarrassment of living on green cards and subsidies in the medium term.

Over the past year, the dispute over "advanced or not" about extended range and interruption (in this case, narrow sense) is also essentially due to people's confused perception of hybrid technology. Once inserted the word mixed on behalf of a chicken rib, and today Zengcheng abandoned the name to a certain extent, but also makes the new generation of meddling covered with unknown injustice.

Not to mention ordinary consumers, not to mention the automotive media, car companies, the primary and secondary market, there are also a considerable number of people in the industry who do not understand the complex relationship. This account book should be very simple, but how confused it is.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly)

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