Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Thanks to CTOnews.com netizens S6 Chinese team for winning the championship and Mr. Aviation's clue delivery! CTOnews.com, January 10, China Federation now released the latest Chinese market data: retail sales of passenger cars in December 2022 reached 2.169 million, up 3.0% from a year earlier, in sharp contrast to a 9.1% drop in November. Retail sales rose 31.4% in December from the previous month, the strongest month-on-month growth since 2008.

From January to December 2022, retail sales in China totaled 20.543 million vehicles, an increase of 1.9 percent over the same period last year and a net increase of 386000 vehicles over the same period last year, including an increase of 1.452 million vehicles from June to December since the launch of the preferential car purchase tax policy. although the negative growth in November is slightly lower than our expected car purchase tax policy, the incremental contribution of the policy is still huge.

According to data from the Federation of passengers, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 750000 in December, an increase of 48.9% over the same period last year, and an increase of 2.5% month-on-month. 6.498 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale from January to December, an increase of 96.3% over the same period last year. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 640000 in December, an increase of 35.1% over the same period last year, and an increase of 6.5% from January to December. From January to December, there were 5.674 million domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 90.0% over the same period last year.

The HKIFA pointed out that under the policy of halving the car purchase tax, new energy vehicles have not been affected, but have continued to strengthen. It is estimated that 8.5 million new energy vehicles will be sold in 2023, with a penetration rate of 36%.

According to the data, 14 enterprises still maintained wholesale sales of more than 10,000 vehicles in December (unchanged from the previous month and the same as the same period last year), accounting for 82.1% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles. Among them, 234598 are BYD, 85632 are SAIC GM Wuling, 55796 are Tesla China, 44550 are Geely, 39185 are Changan, 30685 are SAIC passenger vehicles, 30007 are GAC EIA, 21 are ideal cars, 15 are Lulai cars, 12 914 are Dongfeng Egeter, 12 506 are Chery, 11 292 are Xiaopeng, 10 are Great Wall and 10 are Selis.

Among them, the retail share of New Power in December was 13.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from the same period last year; sales of new power car companies such as ideal and Lailai were still strong year-on-year and month-on-month performance as a whole, but Nezha and Zero, which had excellent early performance, shrank sales at the end of the year, which is also a preparation for a good start to 23 years.

Original text of CTOnews.com attached ride association:

A Review of the National passenger car Market in December

Retail: retail sales in the passenger car market reached 2.169 million units in December 2022, up 3.0% from a year earlier, in sharp contrast to a 9.1% drop in November. Retail sales rose 31.4% in December from the previous month, the strongest month-on-month growth since 2008. Retail sales totaled 20.543 million vehicles from January to December, up 1.9 percent from the same period last year and a net increase of 386000 vehicles, of which the car purchase tax preferential policy increased by 1.452 million vehicles from June to December compared with the same period last year. Although the negative growth in November is slightly lower than our expected car purchase tax policy, the incremental contribution of the policy is still huge.

The "New Ten articles" has changed the state of closure and control of the car market, and the market has obviously rebounded. Some consumers with purchasing power want to pick up their cars as soon as possible to avoid infection or repeated infection. The expiration of some policies and the early Spring Festival holiday this year have led to the advance of consumer demand, and terminal prices in the industry have continued to decline, stimulating demand, which has also stimulated consumers' desire to buy. The surge in the fuel vehicle market in mid-late December is also in line with expected strong growth.

At present, the total inventory of retail channels is abundant, which effectively promotes the growth of the car market in December. However, the market pressure of conventional fuel vehicles is still great in the near future. Retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles (excluding new energy vehicles) nationwide in December were 1.53 million, down 6 per cent from December last year, up 45 per cent from the previous month, down from 6 per cent year-on-year growth from June to September this year. On the basis of 19.68 million in 2019, 18.18 million in 2020 and 17.16 million in 2021, the conventional fuel vehicle market will retail 14.87 million vehicles in 2022, down 13% from the same period last year. Class A fuel vehicles are people's livelihood demand models, and demand has dropped by 14% year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors; new energy vehicles are improved demand from consumers, and retail sales have increased by 89% compared with the same period last year. At present, the consumer confidence of the low-and middle-income first-buyer groups hardest hit by the epidemic urgently needs to be boosted, and the supporting power of consumer demand is insufficient and remains to be released, and the policy still needs to apply greater tilt to the energy-efficient vehicles in fuel-fueled vehicles to find the best balance between economic effects and environmental protection requirements.

The promotion of the car market in the first ten days of December was further strengthened, and the mainstream car companies all added preferential activities to make up for the sales loss caused by the epidemic in the early stage, and strive to achieve the best results of the expected target at the end of the year.

Luxury car retail sales in December were 260000, up 6 per cent year-on-year and 10 per cent month-on-month. The policy of halving the car purchase tax will greatly promote the upgrading of high-end consumption.

Self-branded retail sales of 1.06 million vehicles in December, up 13% year-on-year and 20% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of independent brands in December was 48.9%, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year, and the cumulative share from January to December was 47%, an increase of 6.1% over the same period in 2021. The wholesale market share of independent brands in December was 57.5%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period last year, and the cumulative share of independent brands from January to December was 50%, an increase of 6 percentage points over the same period in 2021. Independent brands have achieved a significant increase in the new energy market and export market, the transformation and upgrading performance of traditional car companies in the head is excellent, and the brand share of traditional car companies such as BYD Automobile, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile and Chery Automobile has increased significantly.

Retail sales by mainstream joint venture brands in December were 850000, down 8 per cent from a year earlier and up 59 per cent from a month earlier. In December, the retail share of German brands was 20.6%, up 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year, while the retail share of Japanese brands was 18.7%, down 4.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The retail share of American brands reached 8.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year.

Exports: 260000 passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) in December, up 50% from the same period last year and 3% month-on-month. New energy vehicles accounted for 28% of total exports in December. With the increase in export capacity, exports from independent brands reached 227000 in December, up 52 per cent from a year earlier and 19 per cent from a month earlier, while exports from joint ventures and luxury brands were 33000, up 41 per cent from the same period last year. In 2022, a total of 2.363 million passenger cars were exported, an increase of 55%. Independent brands have made all-round breakthroughs in exporting to European and American markets and third world markets, and the China base export strategy of international brands is still being maintained.

Production: 2.095 million passenger cars were produced in December, down 15.0% from the same period last year and 0.8% from the previous month. The impact of epidemic control on the industrial chain was basically eliminated, and car enterprises took the initiative to reduce production and inventory. Among them, luxury brand production fell 19% from the same period last year, down 13% from the previous year; joint venture brand production dropped 40% from the same period last year, down 9% from the previous year; and independent brand production increased by 9% from the same period last year, up 7% from the previous year. From January to December, car companies produced 23.367 million vehicles, an increase of 11.6 percent over the same period last year.

In December, some main enterprises strongly adjusted production, and foreign car enterprises and some joint venture car enterprises worked hard to adjust production and stabilize inventory, which was conducive to the inventory balance of the dealer system. The production and marketing of independent brands need to be cautious.

Wholesale: wholesale sales of 2.222 million vehicles in December, down 6.1% from the same period last year, an increase of 9.4% month-on-month. Under the influence of the new energy market, the performance of some car companies is obviously divided. In December, independent car companies wholesale 1.272 million vehicles, an increase of 15% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month. Mainstream joint venture car companies wholesale 682000 vehicles, down 29 per cent from a year earlier and up 10 per cent from a month earlier. 267000 luxury cars were wholesale, down 10% from the same period last year and 9% from the previous month. From January to December, the wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers reached 23.154 million, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year, or an increase of 2.06 million.

BYD Automobile, Changan Automobile, SAIC GM Wuling, GAC MOTOR, GAC Ean, Dongfeng Fengshen and other manufacturers' sales volume contribution is also good compared with December last year.

Inventory: in December, manufacturers worked hard to control the pace of production and wholesale to achieve a strong reduction in inventory, resulting in a destocking trend that the output of manufacturers was lower than wholesale 130000 vehicles, and domestic wholesale lower than retail 210000 vehicles. The expected strong growth in retail sales of fuel vehicles at the end of the year appeared as scheduled after the release of the "New Ten articles" for epidemic prevention and control, and the rapid and substantial reduction of manufacturers' inventory in December exceeded expectations.

The inventory of manufacturers has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, with a cumulative replenishment of nearly 210000 from January to December in 2022, of which the inventory replenishment from May to November is relatively large. Due to the implementation of the policy of halving purchase tax in June, the incremental contribution of dealers' reserve stock has been greater since May. Dealer inventory fell 210000 vehicles month-on-month in December, with a cumulative increase of 250000 vehicles from January to December, while manufacturer inventory fell by 150000 vehicles from January to December 2021. The pressure of high manufacturer inventory this year is partially resolved.

Under the world epidemic situation, the shortage is serious, and it is a rare achievement for China's auto market inventory to return to the middle and high level in the early stage, which lays a stable situation for exports and domestic sales. Due to the guarantee of inventory, the export of passenger cars across the country also maintained an all-time high of about 250000 vehicles from August to December.

New energy: wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 750000 in December, an increase of 48.9% over the same period last year and 2.5% month-on-month. Under the policy of halving car purchase tax, new energy vehicles not only were not affected, but continued to strengthen. From January to December, 6.498 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 96.3% over the same period last year. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 640000 in December, an increase of 35.1% over the same period last year, and an increase of 6.5% from January to December. From January to December, there were 5.674 million domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 90.0% over the same period last year.

In the new energy vehicle market, the supply improvement superimposed by the high oil price brings the market hot, the historically high oil price and the electricity price lock, driving the electric vehicle order performance to be strong. The month-on-month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in early December was affected by epidemic prevention measures in individual areas, and the situation of shop closure was more prominent. With the effective implementation of the "New Ten articles", the traditional cars in the auto market are booming rapidly, and the new energy vehicles are also heating up slightly, but lower than expected.

1) Wholesale: the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in December was 33.7%, which was 12 percentage points higher than that of 21.3% in December 2021. In December, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles was 50.6%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 26.8%; while that of mainstream joint venture brands was only 5.0%. In December, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 563000, up 33.6% from the same period last year; plug-in hybrid sales were 187000, up 127.1% from the same period last year, and new energy vehicles accounted for 25%, an increase of 9 points over the same period. In December, sales of 138000 Class B electric vehicles rose 17% from a year earlier, down 21% from the previous month, accounting for 24% of pure electric vehicles. The A00+A0 class economical electric vehicle market of the pure electric market is on the rise, of which the wholesale sales of the A00 class are 149000, up 4% from the same period last year, up 7% from the previous year, accounting for 27% of the pure electric; the wholesale sales of the A0 class are 109000, accounting for 19% of the pure electric; the A-class electric vehicle is 154000, accounting for 27% of the pure electric; and the sales of electric vehicles of all levels are relatively balanced.

In December, the top three wholesale new energy passenger vehicles were Wuling Hongguang MINI 73009, BYD Song 70079, and Model Y 35750, while the top two fuel vehicles were: Suteng 35329 and Lang Yi 33887. Thus it can be seen that the sales of the new energy leading model Wuling Hongguang is twice as high as that of the fuel car leader model Suiteng.

2) Retail: the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December was 29.5%, 7 percentage points higher than the 22.6% penetration rate in December 2021. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 51.0%, that of luxury cars was 22.8%, and that of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 4.9%. In terms of monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of mainstream independent brands of new energy vehicles in December was 70.6%, up 11.4% from the same period last year; the share of joint venture brand new energy vehicles was 6.5%, up 0.8% from the same period last year; the share of new power was 13.5%, down 4.5% from the same period last year; and Tesla's share was 6.6%, down 8.3%. Since December, new energy vehicles priced below 100000 yuan accounted for 21.8%, down 9% from December last year; 100-200,000 accounted for 44%, up 8%; 200,000-300,000 accounted for 23.3%, down 2 percentage points from the same period last year; 300,000 accounted for 7.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point; more than 400000 accounted for 3.49%, an increase of 2 percentage points.

3) Export: 74000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in December. With the support of the policy of resuming work and production under the epidemic, Chinese-made brands of new energy products are increasingly going abroad. With the continuous improvement of overseas recognition and the improvement of the service network, the market prospect is good. December There are 23865 SAIC passenger cars, 13870 Tesla China, 11320 BYD cars, 7546 Egett, 5518 Geely cars, 2006 Naji cars, 1913 SAIC GM Wuling, 1457 Dongfeng Xiaokang, 1098 Skyworth, 1 000 Jianghuai cars, 336 Dongfengshen, 321 SAIC Chase, 275 Aichi, 1913 DPCA, There are 212 FAW cars and 188 FAW Red Flag cars. Other car companies also export a small number of new energy models. From the overseas market retail data monitoring of self-export, SAIC and other independent brands have a strong performance in Europe. In addition to the beautiful export performance of traditional car companies, recent new power exports have also been gradually launched, and data have begun to emerge in overseas markets.

4) car companies: the new energy passenger car market hit an all-time high in December, and BYD's pure electric and plug-in twin drives consolidate the leading position of its own brand in new energy; traditional car companies represented by SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile, Dongfeng, Geely, Chery and Great Wall have performed prominently in the new energy sector. In terms of product launch, with the multi-line development of independent car companies on the new energy route, the market base continues to expand, and the number of manufacturers' wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles remains 14 (flat month-on-month, year-on-year), accounting for 82.1% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles. Among them, 234598 are BYD, 85632 are SAIC GM Wuling, 55796 are Tesla China, 44550 are Geely, 39185 are Changan, 30685 are SAIC passenger vehicles, 30007 are GAC EIA, 21 are ideal cars, 15 are Lulai cars, 12 914 are Dongfeng Egeter, 12 506 are Chery, 11 292 are Xiaopeng, 10 are Great Wall and 10 are Selis.

5) New Power: the retail share of New Power in December was 13.5%, down 4.5% from the same period last year; the sales volume of new forces such as ideal and Lailai was still strong year-on-year and month-on-month performance, but the sales volume of Nezha and Zero, which had excellent early performance, shrank at the end of the year, which is also a preparation for a good start to 23 years. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen is in the lead, with 17063 new energy vehicles wholesale, accounting for 54% of the mainstream joint venture pure electric. Volkswagen's firm electric transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be launched.

6) General mix: in December, 64804 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were wholesale, down 22% from the same period last year and up 7% from the previous month. Among them, 32766 are Toyota, 19079 Honda, 6642 GAC MOTOR, 4381 Dongfeng passenger cars, 921 Geely cars and 835 Dongfeng Nissan.

Prospect of National passenger car Market in January 2.2023

January 21, 2023 is New Year's Eve, the earliest Spring Festival in all previous years, and it is also a small year for sales in the car market. Although there are 18 working days in January, the last day is still the tenth day of junior high school, and the pre-holiday production and sales time is only 60% of the normal. Before the withdrawal of the passenger car purchase tax halving policy and the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies in December 2022, part of the demand has been overdrawn in January, and retail sales in January should return to the extreme doldrums.

The good start of January every year is the joint efforts of local governments and car companies, but as the inventory of dealers is still high, the replenishment of inventory before the Spring Festival will not be particularly large, so the overall wholesale and retail in January is on the low side. The market in February should pick up obviously, and there will be a wave of car purchases by entry-level consumers after the holiday.

With the implementation of the "New Ten principles", urban and rural residents quickly return to normal life. Production and life after the Spring Festival should be planned in advance, which is a good promotion to the car market in February before and after the Spring Festival. February is the real good start after the Spring Festival.

The industrial chain of the automobile market is mismatched and fluctuates greatly. The surge in supply after extreme shortage is an inevitable result. With the sharp increase of new energy vehicles for more than two years, the sharp rise in the price of resources such as lithium carbonate has brought huge profits, and the investment in upstream resources and mid-stream battery industry is very strong, which will inevitably lead to high growth of supply. the high price brought about by the mismatch between supply and demand in the early stage will fall obviously, which is conducive to the improvement of the profit pressure of new energy vehicles.

3. Steady growth means steady automobile consumption.

At the end of 2022, the Central Economic work Conference clearly demanded that in 2023, we should adhere to a stable word and seek progress in the midst of stability, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, strengthen the regulation and control of macro policies, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation of all kinds of policies. we will form a joint force to promote high-quality development. The Central Economic work Conference pointed out the way forward and provided a fundamental basis for forward-looking thinking, overall planning, and overall promotion of economic work.

2023 is the starting point of a new period of development. We must stabilize economic growth, coordinate the combination of consumption, investment and exports, and achieve high-quality and high-growth growth. The central government maintains an extremely clear understanding of the current world economic and political situation, the world economy is difficult and complex, and China should vigorously promote reform, opening up, and economic development. In particular, the meeting emphasized the core role of domestic demand and consumption in supporting economic growth. We will promote the development of key areas such as automobile consumption, improve people's livelihood, do everything possible to increase residents' income, create employment channels, and promote the coordinated growth of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles.

Therefore, experts from the China Automobile Circulation Association jointly appeal: first, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles enjoy the same consumption policy environment. Second, continue and optimize the policy of tax regulation and support. Third, speed up the implementation of the new policy on second-hand cars and promote the construction of a retail market for used cars. Fourth, completely abolish the measures to restrict the purchase of cars. Give full play to the role of financial leverage and increase the supply of financial services.

4. Electric cars change the pattern of high-end luxury cars

The strong performance of the new energy market in 2022 represents a major breakthrough in China's high-end car manufacturing. Focusing on the electric car market, it has formed a trend of strong growth at both high and low ends. Especially in the high-end electric vehicle market, due to the addition of many new electric intelligent technologies, it has brought a huge driving force for the upgrading of our industry and promoted the development of Chinese parts enterprises towards a good situation.

The high-end luxury cars in the Chinese car market are mainly German-based markets. relying on the car-building concept and excellent quality advantages, Audi BMW-Benz accounts for 75% of the luxury car market, while Japanese and American luxury cars are gradually in the doldrums. In the wave of electrification, high-end luxury is also embracing green environmental protection and low carbon, the recent performance of new energy vehicles in the high-end luxury market is strong, the main force is independent brands, including Red Flag, Lulai and so on.

The high-end new energy of independent brands is accompanied by the enhancement of the systematic competitiveness of automobile enterprises, which is shown in the improvement of service, after-sales and other aspects.

At present, the momentum of the independent high-end market is booming, and the trust and reputation of the independent high-end market are constantly improving. Since 2022, the performance of independent brands in the high-end market of new energy continues to strengthen.

With the gradual slowdown of the popularity of China's auto market, the main driving force for the growth of China's auto market is the purchase of additional consumer groups, which have a relatively high level of consumption. The ownership of fuel cars in the early stage also determines that their future upgrades are more flexible and have more experience needs. Therefore, recently, intelligent network-connected electric vehicles have become the concept of strong growth, promoting the development of high-end. From the recent sales trend in the car market, we can also see that high-end electric cars have become a major choice for families to travel.

High-end electric vehicles and luxury car consumer groups highly overlap, passenger car purchase restrictions in the area of high-end demand, while the city's fuel vehicles can not travel normally for one working day, so the policy convenience advantage of electric vehicles is obvious. If the road rights of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles are not equal for a long time, more consumers are bound to buy independent high-end electric vehicles in the future.

5. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will still rise rapidly.

The new energy penetration rate of passenger cars reached 27.6% in 2022, an increase of 12.6 percentage points over 2021. The penetration of new energy vehicles will continue to increase rapidly in the future. The team of experts predicted that 8.5 million new energy passenger vehicles will be sold in 2023, 23.5 million in the overall narrow sense, and 36% in 2023.

The low cost characteristics of pure electric vehicles compared with fuel vehicles will be maintained. At present, it is judged that the world oil price is facing a downward trend, although the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has brought high world oil prices, and domestic oil prices have reached a high of 9500 yuan / ton, oil prices are expected to decline slightly in the future. However, the characteristics of stable electricity prices in China will not change. Electricity prices in China have remained basically stable in recent decades, with the price ratio of one liter of gasoline to one kilowatt-hour of electricity at around 15:1. As a result, more consumers will shift from fuel vehicles to electric cars.

The products of pure electric vehicles cover from A00 to the highest end, while due to the technical constraints of gasoline engines, the market of A0 and A00 continues to shrink, and A00 is even basically a pure electric market. as a result, the market coverage of fuel vehicles is lower than that of electric vehicles, so electric vehicles have a wider market space.

The technological progress of new energy vehicles is much faster than that of fuel vehicles, whether it is battery technology or intelligent blessing, electric vehicles have the advantage of rapid technological improvement.

The cost of new energy vehicles is also falling faster than fuel vehicles. At present, the price of lithium carbonate is high, and there has been a significant downward trend recently. The manufacturing cost advantage brought by large-scale and low-cost technological innovation such as integrated die-casting is also increasingly obvious. Especially at present, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have occupied the leading position of passenger cars, so they have a stronger scale and cost advantage.

Compared with the fact that the market share of cars and SUV is gradually stable at nearly 50 per cent, electric vehicles will not show obvious permeability stagnation. The car has obvious advantages over SUV in handling, comfort, cost and so on. Therefore, the rental network and unit cars are more inclined to car products. On the other hand, new energy vehicles quickly replace fuel vehicles in areas such as rental contracts because of their cost advantages. At present, new energy vehicles have become the best choice for high-frequency travel, so there is a huge space for development.

6. Buying a car against tax should have a wonderful effect on promoting consumption.

When the personal pension system landed at the end of last year, its core is that individual deposits can offset the personal income tax into the pension account, which is extremely tempting to the middle-and high-income groups, and the landing effect is good. We have been calling for a tax credit for car purchases to effectively boost consumption, but there has been no movement.

Buying a house in China is clearly a personal investment behavior, not a consumer behavior, and CPI does not include changes in house prices. And individual investment pension is also an investment behavior, just because of access to a special pension account, so it can also be tax-free. This shows that taxation is an important way to regulate residents' consumption and investment behavior. And personal car purchase consumption is the most important behavior to stimulate consumption, and personal car purchase tax credit should also be implemented.

As the only consumer goods that have not been popularized by urban and rural households in China, the overall trend of the national passenger car market is not strong in recent years, and it is difficult for passenger car consumption to remain in the doldrums to effectively promote the high-quality development of residents' production and living consumption. more measures are needed to promote consumption in the car market.

From the sources of funds to support the development of the car market, at present, the income from car purchase tax has declined greatly, the land transfer fees of local governments have also declined greatly, and the expenditure of land transfer fees is relatively large, so the ability of local governments to vigorously promote consumption in the car market is expected to be limited. In theory, personal investment housing loans can be exempted from personal income tax, while car consumption can not be tax deductible, which is problematic. From the analysis, the national personal income tax has increased rapidly in recent years, so we should give full play to the tax reduction effect of individual income tax on car purchase, mobilize consumers' enthusiasm for car purchase and achieve sustainable growth in stimulating consumption.

Welcome to subscribe "Shulou Technology Information " to get latest news, interesting things and hot topics in the IT industry, and controls the hottest and latest Internet news, technology news and IT industry trends.