Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com January 10 news, TrendForce Jibang Consulting released a report, 2023 panel industry from the trough recovery, panel-driven IC demand is expected to pick up quarter by quarter.

According to the report, since 2022, as demand for panel-driven IC slowed sharply after entering the second quarter, inventory levels soared in a short period of time. After two to three quarters of price cuts, reduced production, and destocking, panel-driven IC prices and inventories have improved.

At the same time, the first quarter of 2023 is a critical time for panel-driven IC to determine the number of screenings, and the demand for the second half of the year needs to be laid out in advance by the end of the first quarter at the latest. Although the international environment is still not optimistic, panel market demand can not return to the current peak of the epidemic, but with panel prices bottoming out, TrendForce Jibang Consulting believes that panel market will heat up quarterly in 2023, especially into the third quarter of the traditional peak season, it is expected that with the significant increase in panel demand, it will further drive panel-driven IC demand to pick up.

According to a survey conducted by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the inventory of IC operators has been driven for more than half a year since the second quarter of 2022. Therefore, on the one hand, actively discuss with panel manufacturers about the elimination of inventory solutions, on the other hand, it is necessary to slow down the number of new films in the fab, even if they have to face the compensation for breach of the long contract (LTA) offered by the wafer, or the IC manufacturers' own inventory loss recognition, the IC inventory level must be strictly controlled with the method of only going out and not entering. Minimize the damage caused by market changes.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting observed that existing inventories did begin to decline gradually, although the rate of elimination was not as fast as expected, but demand replenishment at the end of 2022 and festive promotions all contributed to the elimination of inventories, such as IC, which is driven by large-size TV panels, and inventory levels are expected to gradually enter a healthy level in the first quarter of 2023.

In terms of price, the shortage caused by the epidemic has pushed up the cost of foundry foundry, so the cost of inventory quickly accumulated due to the disappearance of demand at this time is also relatively high. However, the correction in demand and the pressure from falling panel prices have affected panel-driven IC to cut prices by 5% to 10% every quarter in 2022. In addition to significantly reducing the gross profit margin of IC, prices are also getting closer to the starting point of the 2020 epidemic. At the same time, in the face of the new case in 2023, even if the current wafer price reduction is limited, a number of manufacturers even lower than the market level in order to ensure stable demand in the future. However, when the price cut erodes the IC gross profit margin, there is limited room for a sharp fall in prices.

It is worth noting that due to the long lead time of driving IC for three months, the slowest demand in the current quarter must also start preparing for release in the previous quarter. At this time, if the production capacity of the wafer foundry is not released, IC manufacturers are still reducing inventory and strictly control the projection plan, coupled with the fact that the client may not clearly release future demand, resulting in a delay in the release time. Or the fab will allocate its production capacity to other products such as power management IC, all of which may lead to tension or shortage of panel-driven IC at the time when it is necessary to pull goods.

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