Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com January 9 news, according to a report released by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, due to weak consumer demand, memory seller inventory pressure continued, only Samsung inventory decreased slightly under the bidding strategy.

In order to avoid further sharp price falls in DRAM products, a number of suppliers, such as Micron, have begun to actively reduce production. It is estimated that the DRAM price decline in the first quarter of 2023 will converge to 1318%, but there is still no end of the downward cycle.

▲ Tupu TrendForce Jibang Consulting CTOnews.com learned that the report said that PC DRAM, due to insufficient demand in the notebook market, PC OEM has reduced PC DRAM procurement for two consecutive quarters, the current PC DRAM inventory is about 913 weeks, but the first quarter is the traditional off-season, inventory removal is still difficult. It is estimated that DDR5 prices will fall by about 180.23% and DDR4 by about 150.20%, while overall PC DRAM prices will fall by about 150.20% in the first quarter.

As for Server DRAM, the demand for servers has declined due to the off-season effect, long-and short-term adjustment and overall economic weakness. Even if some suppliers begin to reduce production, it is still unable to effectively restrain the price decline. It is estimated that the price decline of DDR5 in the first quarter is about 180.23%, slightly higher than that of DDR4, but the import rate of DDR5 in the first quarter is only about 10%. Therefore, the price decline of Server DRAM is mainly determined by DDR4, with an estimated decline of about 150.20%.

In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Mobile DRAM inventory of smartphone brands has been eliminated for about six quarters and has reached a healthier level of 5 to 7 weeks on average, but the sales market is in the doldrums, and smartphone brands continue to lower their annual sales targets for 2023, which is difficult for Mobile DRAM inventory removal. Suppliers plan to slow the decline in quotations, mainly because production cuts have been established and will continue to expand. In addition, compared with other DRAM product categories, Mobile DRAM has the lowest profit. In the case of depressed demand, the strategy of reducing prices to seize the market is less effective, so the quarterly decline in Mobile DRAM prices in the first quarter will converge to 1015%.

As for Graphics DRAM, graphics cards and related laptops with the new GPU will be shipped one after another, but the weak consumer terminals, coupled with the previous lengthy inventory removal process, the purchasing side of the Graphics DRAM pull strategy is still conservative. As demand did not catch up with the rate of supply growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, the original factory Graphics DRAM inventory continued to stack. In addition, the mainstream of demand will shift significantly from GDDR6 8Gb to GDDR6 16Gb in 2023. In the case of limited demand, it is estimated that the price decline of GDDR6 8Gb will fluctuate greatly. The overall Graphics DRAM price will fall by about 180.23% in the first quarter, but the decline may be deepened if the price reduction competition continues.

In terms of Consumer DRAM, considering that terminal buying is still in the doldrums and Consumer DRAM prices are still in the downward cycle, buyers have not begun to actively prepare goods, and the original relatively stable Netcom orders are gradually loosening in the first quarter of 2023, resulting in a decline in overall Consumer DRAM shipments. Even though Micron began to cut production in November 2022, the inventory level of the original factory still reached record highs. In addition to taking longer to eliminate, it must also rely on a larger reduction in production. As the overall Consumer DRAM market is still oversupplied, prices are expected to fall by 1823% in the first quarter of 2023.

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