Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, January 7, according to TrendForce consulting research, as most suppliers have begun to reduce production, the quarterly decline of NAND Flash prices in the first quarter of 2023 will converge to 1015%, and price reduction competition will also be controlled after the original factory started to reduce production. Among them, as the NAND Flash Wafer is close to the cash cost, the decline will be the first to be controlled; as an important market for the original factory to consume inventory, and with large profit margins, Enterprise SSD is the product with the deepest decline. On the whole, NAND Flash experienced a sharp price decline in the second half of 2022, prompting suppliers to actively reduce production, coupled with higher price elasticity than DRAM, so TrendForce Jibang Consulting expects the price downward cycle of NAND Flash to end earlier than DRAM.

As for Client SSD, due to the weak demand for laptops in 2023, the conservative stock of notebook brands, and the continued slowdown in the growth of Client SSD demand bits in 2023, and the benefits of production reduction have not yet been fermented, the supply glut continues. CTOnews.com learned that layer 176 512GB will still be the mainstream product in 2023, but the improvement in the performance of QLC SSD products has exacerbated the decline in the price of 512GB capacity, and as more suppliers launch high-level QLC products, 512GB prices may continue to fall. However, TrendForce Ji Bang Consulting is currently observing that the price strategy of some production reduction suppliers has worked, and the decline in Client SSD prices in the first quarter has been controlled to 1015%.

In terms of PexelsEnterprise SSD, the weak situation of server shipments has not improved since the fourth quarter of 2022, which in turn affects the downrevision of Enterprise SSD orders. China's data center construction has slowed as a result of the epidemic, resulting in a decline in Enterprise SSD demand in 2022 compared with 2021. In addition, suppliers have widened the decline in Enterprise SSD prices in the fourth quarter of last year to increase customer inventory capacity in North America, in order to slow the rise in inventories, but this has undermined Enterprise SSD inventory demand in the first quarter of 2023. As the average unit price of Enterprise SSD is still better than that of other consumer products, the original factory still wants to actively expand Enterprise SSD shipments to support profits, resulting in suppliers to adopt competitive bidding strategy, making Enterprise SSD the product with the deepest decline in the first quarter, about 1318%.

EMMC, the main applications of Chromebook, television and Netcom products demand momentum is insufficient, can not effectively support eMMC prices. At present, the eMMC inventory level of the original factory is still high, and the original factory will still actively promote under the premise of profit space. At the same time, because some module factories continue to compete fiercely in the Chinese market for finished products made by low-cost wafer, it also causes some pressure on the original factory. However, as the low-capacity eMMC has fallen into the cost range, the further price decline is limited, which will be concentrated in the high-capacity eMMC above 64GB, and the price of eMMC is expected to fall by about 1015% in the first quarter.

In terms of UFS, demand for smartphones remains sluggish, with most major smartphone OEM saying that purchases are likely to be the same as in 2022, and the outlook for UFS demand for the whole year remains negative. Due to the increasing capacity of the single phone, the original factory still chooses to actively promote the NAND Flash product bit consumption, while the Chinese customers hope to use the price incentive to drive the single machine capacity upgrade. At present, although there is an increasing trend in the number of smartphones starting with 256GB, most of them are concentrated in flagship and high-end models, and the introduction of new products will not be more significant until the second half of 2023. In the first half of the year, UFS is still in oversupply, and it is estimated that UFS prices will fall by about 1015% in the first quarter.

In terms of NAND Flash Wafer, at present, the kinetic energy of module factory is insufficient, and the demand and sales of products such as retail SSD and flash memory cards are weak. The effect of production reduction in the original factory gradually fermented in the first quarter of 2023, but in the short term, low-price sales strategy was adopted while NAND Flash Wafer inventory was still high, but because the price of mainstream capacity wafer products fell into the cash cost range of suppliers, it was even sold out in some large procurement transactions. Under the condition that the overall supply has begun to be restrained, the original factory is not willing to continue to suffer losses. TrendForce Group Consulting estimates that the NAND Flash Wafer contract price in the first quarter will be the product with the smallest decline, about 30.8%.

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