Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Original title: "20, 000 words long article: 2022, cars can not lie down."

The new energy industry represented by new energy vehicles has become the hope of the whole village in 2022. As a pillar industry of the national economy, automobile has been important and humble for many years.

However, by 2022, the industry, which is struggling to sustain growth by leveraging, has ushered in a highlight moment when he was forcibly righted. The tentative pricking of the real estate bubble and the differences in the development direction of the Internet industry have given cars with the theme of new energy very complex industrial responsibilities last year.

From the capital market to the real economy, from domestic demand to exports, the automobile industry, which is plagued by the outburst of the supply chain and the hesitation of consumption all the year round, has come to a critical and definite point with difficulty and uncertainty.

What is certain is that there is no doubt about the speed and direction of new energy, which is a highly consistent direction rarely seen between China and the United States today. What is uncertain is consumption.

In 2022, the government launched the industrial stimulus policy mainly focused on tax and fee relief for the third time. However, the stimulus effect of this policy is significantly weaker on the consumer side than in 2009 and 2018. Now it has come to the exit time of the policy setting, and the country has also established a major policy of encouraging consumption and expanding domestic demand in 2023 at the end of the year, and new energy vehicles are still the focus.

However, at least in the first quarter, car consumption is bound to face a very big weakness. On the one hand, with the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic, we will not be optimistic until the end of March; on the other hand, with the withdrawal of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the prices of new cars will be redetermined once again. Sensitive markets need a little time to digest fluctuating prices.

When chatting with friends of many automobile enterprises at the end of the year, we talked about that many enterprises had released the information of price increase after New Year's Day in advance. This is the most direct method of promotion fee. Many enterprises have very low expectations for the first quarter, and everyone hopes to bring back as many orders as possible for the first three months of this year in December last year. As for how to spend the first quarter, many people's view is: let's talk about it again.

This is 2022, the last volume of the auto industry in the sky, unexpectedly using the expected rise in car prices. However, as far as I know, due to the sudden deregulation of the epidemic control and the more severe symptoms than expected, the car impulse in December did not achieve the desired effect.

The whole vehicle enterprise is the core of the industrial chain, but now it is the most awkward link in the industrial chain. They face the industrial chain innovation spoiled by capital and policy by opening up the valuation space; they face consumption directly, endure share anxiety and weak consumption, and struggle to choose between losses or unsalable. Downhill fuel cars are still making money, while uphill new energy vehicles, especially pure trams, are losing money. Most car companies choose to be better, preferring to devote their resources to losses but represent the latter of tomorrow.

This is really a spectacle, an emerging industry, policies and subsidies are in place, the market leakage rate is growing rapidly, by 2022 has exceeded 30%, the market size of more than 6 million vehicles, but the vast majority of participating enterprises just can not make money. More than half of the enterprises are negative in the gross profit of building and selling cars, not to mention the amortization of fixed assets.

In 2022, it took a whole year for new energy vehicles to prove that he could not replace the financing position of real estate as an investment industry with the rapid growth of a consumer industry at this time.

When will car consumption really improve?

In fact, it is also simple, and it is similar to other consumptions. generally speaking, for a piece of consumable rather than investment consumer goods, the market needs to be happy for everyone to be happy.

This kind of happiness is not wow, I found a big bargain, before 300000 of the car, now 200000 bought that kind, but today I spent 300000 to buy a car, this is a happy thing, the whole family is happy. This kind of happiness is to say it is a bit scolding, but it is the commercial nature of happiness, that is, in your happiness, merchants have to be able to make money.

Let's talk about the industry first.

Let's take a look at a set of data. Last year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 30%. Thanks to the sales of new energy vehicles, China exported more than 3 million cars in 2022, which is very close to the export data of Japan, the largest country of automobiles for the first time. And the price level of exported cars has increased significantly. The market share of China's own-brand cars has exceeded 50% for the first time, and there is a trend of further increase in market share, which is expected to challenge 60% in 2023.

However, behind this set of eye-pleasing data, there are still some problems worth noting.

Of course, the biggest problem is the profit level of new energy vehicle enterprises. Profit margin has become a strict secret for almost all new energy automobile companies. Generally speaking, when you ask the bosses of the vast majority of new energy automobile companies, they will not directly answer the question of your corporate profit margin. At most, they will tell you that they are certainly losing money at this stage.

It is certainly not within the scope of public disclosure as to when it will be profitable, whether it can finally be profitable depending on current procurement and selling prices, and whether it can realize the amortization of fixed assets and R & D investment within a reasonable cycle.

At a high-profile forum in the middle of the year, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC GROUP, who sells 30,000 new energy vehicles a month, could not help but fire at Zeng Yuqun, the family of the Ningde era. Ji Yan battery suppliers gobbled up the profits of the entire industry to fatten themselves. If this situation is not changed, vehicle companies will have to build their own battery supply capacity.

Zeng Qinghong, Chairman of GAC GROUP

This is almost destined to become a reality in 2023. A number of auto companies have begun to build their own capacity, from minerals to battery production.

In fact, this trend is a serious reflection on the supply chain reform in the industrial reform after the wave of the new energy industry has gone through five years.

One of the reflections comes from the result. Among the new energy automobile enterprises, only Tesla and BYD have super profitability. Of course, from the perspective of success, the industry representatives of these two Chinese and American new energy vehicles have a lot in common.

For example, both companies are the first enterprises on the earth to focus their resources on new energy vehicles, both of which started around 2004.

At the same time, both companies maintain a high rate of autonomy in core components, whether through the management of suppliers or through self-supply.

In a mature century-old industry, many enterprises suddenly find that the previous cost control tools begin to fail in the face of new suppliers, including batteries, intelligent systems, chips and so on. This is why many enterprises have already crossed the so-called life-and-death line in terms of sales, but the situation of selling one and losing one has never been improved.

Of course, the impact of the capital market on the real industry is also increasing. The hype of capital to the industry, so far, is still focused on the supply side with the battery as the core. Whether it is the field of intelligent driving, which is still uncertain, or the manufacturing side of the whole vehicle, which is worried about consumption, the capital is not as big as the battery side.

While the battery-end industry chain is in the secondary market, the stock price has long been in the era of carbon neutrality. In the Ningde era, for example, in order to maintain a high stock price of trillions, it was probably impossible to sell batteries one by one. What's more, the price of lithium ore fluctuated greatly in the Ningde era.

Then it is not impossible to jump out of the traditional industrial chain and extend its own profit chain to the bowl of the whole car factory, relying on monopoly advantages to achieve such an intention.

Therefore, of almost all car suppliers, the hand of the Ningde era is the longest. Of course, the basic idea shown by a large number of smart driving suppliers of different sizes represented by Huawei is also the idea of evolving from a flour mill to a central kitchen.

In the long run, although the battery is important, the voice game ability in the supply chain should not be as good as that of intelligent suppliers. But even smart suppliers, in the end, it is difficult to force vehicle companies to work for the "turnaround" supply chain in a situation of small profits or even losses for a long time. In the end, chips and cloud computing may be one of the few winners to win additional dividends in the auto industry.

This judgment is based on the nature of the industry. In an interview a year ago, Li Bin, chairman of Xilai Automobile, said about the worst Xiaopeng car in 2022 that he believed that Wei Xiaoli would live and live well in the future. Xiaopeng, even if it has been a little more difficult in the past year, is also some price in development. Because, the automobile industry is not a winner-takes-all industry, everyone has their own leeway.

Li Bin, chairman of Xilai Automobile, in 2022, when we are used to hearing Internet intruders say that they want to sell 10 million vehicles quickly, thus becoming one of the top five life-and-death lines in the industry, as a representative of a new power automobile company, Li Bin's negation of the industry's winner-take-all logic may become a very important judgment for the follow-up development of the automobile industry.

Because of this judgment, it will have a very critical impact on the way people in the industry examine the development of their own enterprises, and have a very critical impact on the way of action of reform and entry posture.

Personally, I fully support Li Bin's judgment. To put it simply, the greater the hardware weight and the greater the design scope of the industry, the less likely the winner takes all. If we say that as long as the Internet speed is fast enough, the cloud service is strong enough, and mobile phones and televisions can be completely digitized, then because of our unforgettable need for physical movement, cars or future vehicles will never be able to get rid of the domination of hardware.

Almost none of the examples of market success in the auto industry we saw in 2022 followed the winner-take-all logic.

For example, Tesla, by far the most qualified company to show a winner-take-all trend in the new energy vehicle industry, was overtaken by BYD, which is completely different from enterprise to product, with little difference in average price in 2022. The common feature of Tesla and BYD is that they show a huge advantage in cost control in 2022.

For example, the ideal, although the best SUV in 5 million was mocked by onlookers at home, the three-piece sets of color TV sets, refrigerators and washing machines, coupled with the new doll design with market affinity, still let the ideal pass smoothly in the third quarter of the dangerous new forces.

Li Bin's thinking is equally clear, saying that if we judge that the auto industry is a winner-take-all logic, then things are not doing this at all. So we see that in the product line, Weilai takes a solid, robust, strong sense of design, but the performance is moderate. The idea of long-term investment in the energy supplement and service system shown by Weilai is not the loneliness that the winner-take-all industry can bear.

Huawei has an interesting way of playing in the auto industry. This has something to do with the special stage the enterprise has been in in recent years.

I have always believed that Huawei's choice in the auto industry, although repeatedly slapped on the chest and promised not to build cars in person, is clearly too forward for potential partners, and has a clear relationship with the knife held around his neck over the past two years.

By the end of last year, however, Huawei had begun to reorient itself according to the fact that "the auto industry will not be a winner-takes-all" industry.

First of all, I would like to congratulate Huawei. Xu Zhijun made it clear in his year-end report that last year was Huawei's last special year in the post-sanctions period, and this year Huawei should be able to return to the relatively normal track of corporate development. Ren Zhengfei's chill should be too cold to kill this love-hate technology company. This will help Huawei establish a more robust posture in the automotive sector.

Of course, there are a few other things that make Huawei rethink the way the auto industry plays:

For one thing, the efficiency of the combination of powers in the automobile industry is much lower than they thought. A combination of strength and weakness like Selis is possible if Huawei's intentions and efficiency are to be fully implemented. But the cost of the combination of the strong and the weak is also clear. And the really strong can not accept the idea of his full-stack supplier at all.

Second, the car is not as easy to sell as they expected. Although we see that the whole industry envies the world's monthly sales of more than 10,000 within a year, almost all business leaders blame his marketing deputy for not being a layman, Yu Chengdong. But in fact, the sales performance of the world completely fell short of Huawei's expectations. As far as I know, in Huawei's plan, monthly sales will reach 30,000 by the end of the year.

The success in the eyes of the industry and the substandard in the eyes of Huawei are the different judgments of companies on whether the intelligent electrification of the automobile industry is a winner-take-all situation.

It is conceivable that if QQ reaches $30,000 a month as scheduled, and the sales trend is as strong as Yu Chengdong's mobile phone, it is absolutely impossible for Huawei to open its smart car selection business to more models. That's neither necessary nor reasonable.

The real good news for Huawei is not that BAIC or Changan are finally under pressure to accept Huawei's transformation, but two pieces of news at the end of the year: one is that Huawei's smart car BU is expected to be profitable by 2025, and the other is that ABB and Huawei have reached a supply partnership for smart systems.

With Huawei's intelligent system manufacturing upgrading capability and realistic profit demand, at least in the past five years, this is the ideal position for Huawei to go deep into the automotive industry chain-to become the world's most important supplier of automotive intelligent hardware and software. if possible, rely on the auto industry to achieve the break of Huawei's cloud services business.

I believe that the vast majority of enterprises in the auto industry do not agree that cars are the winner-take-all logic of change. However, most companies are experiencing the fear of winner-takes-all, doing something to defend against winner-takes-all, or dreaming of being the winner-takes-all winner. Volume, one of the key words of the industry in 2022, is the product of this fear.

In a period when the market is redivided and the product is redefined, volume is the normal choice and the simplest and roughest choice.

The advantage of the volume is that the short-term effect is obvious. Changes in the logic of industrial profits, as well as the trend of capital waiting for auto companies also support the practice of random rolls for a period of time.

For example, volume is a capitalized new enterprise, an effective way to deal with traditional enterprises whose financial results are greater than days; volume is also an effective way for independent brands with strong decision-making power, and to deal with slow and difficult joint ventures. Volume is still in the face of the new era, a little at a loss, but the family is still rich in the transformation of enterprises to answer the common ideas.

Configure volume configuration that can be volumed, configure volume marketing that cannot be volumed, and send benefits to users if the service does not volume. After suffering from some enterprises, the welfare bosses all asked for a set of ancient and modern methodology, but as a result, the welfare could not be given away. Some of the gestures for giving benefits were so wringing that they spent money and scolded them.

What is the end of the volume? At the ultimate end, of course, is Jia Yueting, where the hardware is free and the software and services are charged. once there is a runner, the industry will naturally be full of grief and gloom, with a big head, and others will wash up and sleep. Of course, there is a greater probability that the volume will be rolled up to a certain extent, the industry will upgrade, the volume king will die, and the industry will reflect.

Companies that have been forced by the damned 2022 to upgrade the supply chain, strengthen cost and quality control management, roll products, process, and efficient capital management are expected to move on to the next round. These are the enterprises with ideas and the protagonists of future success studies.

However, simple stacking, mindless delivery of benefits, roll merchants super cloth stores, volume low differentiation new products are obviously incompetent, or lazy content, it is estimated that they will soon encounter the effect boundary of this simple volume. In the era of industrial change, the simple price war to break through the vest, from the point of view of many industries before, is the industry cannon fodder for better enterprises.

I want to talk about the Great Wall. This is a very distinctive Chinese automobile company. Over the past two years, Wei Jianjun has had a discussion about life and death, which has enabled the company to start a sports feast of rapid progress.

But last year, the Great Wall encountered a big bottleneck in its development. It is not surprising that almost all Chinese enterprises have encountered such bottlenecks after a year or two of great strides. This cannot deny the achievements made by the Great Wall in the previous two years.

BYD, which caught fire last year, suffered such a crash in 2008. At that time, Wang Chuanfu said that BYD doubled every year and overtook Toyota to become the number one in the world by 2025. As a result, he fell over after two years. Changan in 2018 and Geely in 2020 have all experienced the decline after blooming. It's just that the pain is different because of the difference between the early practice and the later self-adjustment ability.

Great Wall enterprise since the completion of the restructuring for more than 20 years, the core advantages are very clear, solid technology, simple and pure brand, high efficiency, tenacious style, good product durability, cost-effective. In the vast domestic market, there are very mature and fixed user groups, and export is also one of the most efficient Chinese enterprises.

In the past two years, the Great Wall suddenly launched a multi-brand development route, and has achieved very good market results in two or three new brands. The external image of the whole enterprise is more stable and even dull than before, and it has changed a lot in a short time.

All these led the Great Wall through a very glamorous two years. However, the multi-brand strategy of the Great Wall is a strategy to improve the sales scale when the enterprise develops to a certain stage and makes a very clear short-term effect combined with the market situation. This style of play has its own short-term characteristics.

Therefore, in the situation of large volumes in the market last year, the multi-line strategy of the Great Wall immediately showed a variety of ideas, but the main line is not obvious, many but not strong situation. This was originally the advantage of the Great Wall.

By the second half of last year, the Great Wall decisively adjusted its development strategy back to the main line. Merge the marketing system, continue to return to the Harvard-based brand of multi-functional development ideas. This adjustment is very timely. If Great Wall can solidly increase the market share of specialty products and new energy products on the premise of establishing Harvard's main line market position in 2023, then the increase in sales achieved in the previous two years can be transformed into the potential energy of the Great Wall's striding development. In this sense, the timely adjustment of the Great Wall last year is not as valuable to the established carmaker as the life-and-death discussion.

For an enterprise that has been developed for decades, if it is not for the chronic illness that has accumulated for a long time and is not easy to solve in the management system, then any idea of overturning the reconstruction will be naive and impulsive. In response to the changing market, there can be temporary strategies, but in order to meet the so-called new life and abandon their own advantages, I am afraid that the result can only be an inefficient but smiling toss.

In 2022, I really saw that many enterprises obviously have strong advantages of their own. As long as they show enough market sincerity and make some limited adjustments to their enterprises according to the situation, they will be able to gain a foothold in the changing market.

But many enterprises often do not know how to work as soon as they step into the field of intelligent electrification. Some senior executives think that since I have become an intelligent electrified enterprise, my first priority is to act according to the enterprise paradigm of the intelligent electrified era.

But what is the enterprise paradigm in the era of intelligent electrification? No? There are also, such as Tesla. But that's hard to learn. Then what is easy to learn? Of course, there are also, for example, to open stores where there are few people for more than half of the year; for example, to hold a fan conference and let leaders and users chat for a long time on the stage of the press conference; for example, to trade points for boutiques that do not know what to say; for example, to pay users to put in a good word.

In short, if you do what you've done before, it's not work; if you don't get tens of thousands of users to say nice things to you all day, it's not marketing.

As for whether it works or not, whether there are side effects or not, it doesn't matter, first revolution, then consider whether revolution is cost-effective.

For those traditional car companies' new energy sub-brands, or new energy cars, if you really can't find a good paradigm, you might as well pick up a magnifying glass and take a closer look at polar krypton. Experience and lessons can be found in this brand.

Polar krypton from the first appearance of great success, to the subsequent unprecedented hot orders, and then due to a variety of problems led to brand set-up collapse, delivery difficulties, and now the monthly delivery is more than 10,000. In the past year and a half, what has this new brand experienced? What are the things that are right and wrong?

We can analyze it the same way.

Distribution model, polar krypton at the beginning of the choice of pure direct sales, with the help of Lecker's store to do delivery and after-sales. But it was soon found that the simple direct selling model could not support a large order quantity. For extreme krypton, the most efficient distribution model is still to rely on the more power of dealer partners to build a distribution system.

User operation, immature approach, so that just contact with the user operation of extreme krypton, in a long time in a hurry, public opinion almost let this very capable product lose consumer trust. Although polar krypton still emphasizes that it is a user-oriented enterprise, after the first year of training, polar krypton has wisely put the core of user operation on the collection and improvement of users' effective feedback on the product. In fact, the core of the user operation of Internet enterprises also lies in this. Instead of being too active and high-cost to curry favor with users and lure them to put in a good word for themselves.

Give back to the user. The most successful case is in July last year, polar krypton 001 upgrade 8155 chip, polar krypton spent 300 million, for regular users to upgrade 8155 chips free of charge. Since then, monthly deliveries of polar krypton have been rising. To be clear, this free upgrade is actually not a favorite fan, not unprincipled to please users, but to fulfill the promise. The previous chip did not fulfill the promise of the polar krypton 001 product experience in the actual experience, and the polar krypton made up for this deficiency when upgrading the chip.

You paid the price, fulfilled the promise that was missing before, and improved the product experience, which is the self-cultivation that the so-called user-oriented enterprise should establish. Xiaomi, Haier and other excellent enterprises are all clearly engraved with such acts in the course of their development. This is the valuable content that user-oriented enterprises are worth talking about.

But what we see now from time to time is that I haven't fulfilled my promise to your product, or I'll give you something. I can't give you two thousand yuan, so you can remove the negative for me. What kind of sub-user enterprise is this?

Finally, the products of polar krypton are capable of fighting, which is why polar krypton is now in a good market position. I believe that extreme krypton CEO an Conghui knows very well about this. Although he is now happy to emphasize the value of user operation, an Cong Hui, who has a thorough understanding of products, must know very well that this is why extreme krypton is so popular in the market today. In the entire Geely car system, the only one that wasn't badly hit by BYD last year was polar krypton. From the point of view of the launch time, extreme krypton 001 is a very forward-looking product, after a large volume of 2022, the micro-upgraded polar krypton 001 still has an advantage in similar products.

Extreme krypton car CEO an Cong Hui

Let's talk about BYD, which became popular in the sky last year. Why did BYD become so popular in 2022? It has set a series of new sales records for Chinese auto companies and basically locked in the top spot in 2022, the first time a Chinese company has won the top spot in the local passenger car market. But so far, I haven't seen BYD make any great innovation in marketing. It is not that marketing is not important, but that marketing is not important because of innovation.

In my opinion, the success of BYD is the success of corporate strategy and cost control. Strategically, BYD insisted on two things that saw the moon shine last year without forcing itself to death for 20 years. One is the insistence on electrification of cars. BYD is one of the few car companies that clung to the electrified route of cars when it was founded in the early 2000s.

As you can see, BYD has never been particularly serious about making fuel cars. BYD's fuel car series has been successful in the market, but there has never been a clear context of development; while for electric cars that have not had a market for a long time, BYD has always been serious about it. The high-end brand to be launched on January 5 looks up to the four-wheel motor technology, which was proposed by BYD Wang Chuanfu in 2004 and has publicly promoted the idea of a four-wheel motor car several times over the next two decades.

People are starting to joke about four-wheeled motors, but in 2023, cars with four-wheeled motors are said to be able to turn around like tanks, and cars with flat tires and driving as usual will be on the market. This shows that Wang Chuanfu is not launching a satellite. BYD has really been accumulating four-wheel motor technology as an important thing in the past 20 years.

BYD's DM-i hybrid technology is the same, at first the outside world as a joke, until now has become a magic skill. BYD, which was born as a battery, decided from the beginning that its opportunity was in electric cars, which is the basis on which BYD broke out at this moment. Many companies will privately complain about why BYD's hybrid market is regarded as new energy vehicles, while their own hybrid market is regarded as petrol cars. The reason is not last year, in the previous two decades.

The other is that BYD has always been "unreasonable" to adhere to the core components of self-supply, autonomy. At that time, when Volkswagen was obsessed with dual-clutch transmissions, BYD was the only domestic company that did not want to develop this transmission with the highest technical difficulty and mechanical manufacturing difficulty. Of course, BYD received a lot of scolding because of its user complaints and rights protection incidents that almost destroyed BYD's brand reputation.

But then again, Toyota, which is still the leader of the industry, has the same attitude towards core accessories as BYD. This strategy gave BYD a huge advantage in last year's market. In particular, the self-supply of batteries makes it much easier for this enterprise to control its cost than other enterprises in the stock market. And the supply chain is much less troubled. In a wave of supply outages caused by static management in Shanghai in April and May, BYD became almost the only car company unaffected, with monthly sales climbing to more than 150000 until it remained above 200000 in the fourth quarter.

If Chinese auto companies so far, whose success is the success of the model, then BYD and Geely are the two most typical enterprises. BYD is the success of Toyota model, the success of independent system based on core technology and supply chain autonomy, while Geely is a commercial M & An and joint development model based on technical cooperation and integration under the background of globalization.

In 2022, a year that makes globalisation fans sad, it is normal that the advantages of BYD's model have been fully highlighted.

Over the years, Wang Chuanfu has said the most three words: the first sentence is the willingness to fight, the industry to serve the country; the second sentence is that everything is man-made, not created by God; the third sentence is that BYD must be the number one car company in the world.

Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, has been laughed at many times along with BYD's neurotic growth experience. Now, BYD is doing his battery acupuncture experiments around the world to prove that his battery is the most advanced and safest. In 2022, BYD also overtook Tesla to become the world's highest-selling brand of new energy vehicles.

I never thought BYD would rest easy. In my opinion, the huge gap in management and human resources after rapid development will without exception make enterprises fall into difficulties, big or small, and Huawei, which has self-discipline such as Ren Zhengfei, has not escaped this calamity. However, among Chinese automobile enterprises, BYD has indeed established some development advantages, which are not easy to catch up with and are not easily infected by the international and domestic situations. this is a fact that has always been universally acknowledged by domestic competitors.

In fact, there is a Chinese car company, Chery, which is similar to BYD's music style. This independent brand leading enterprise, which has been entangled by ownership problems for many years, has led to an increasingly strange painting style. In fact, it is the automobile company with the strongest technological strength and technological autonomy in China.

Over the years, Chery has been providing a steady stream of formed product and technical teams to China's automotive industry. Some enterprises have even opened special buses to and from Wuhu for their employees. But Chery's technical foundation has never been hollowed out.

After completing the restructuring and entering the IPO cycle, this enterprise has played an impressive ability. As early as when Chery carried out the jaw-dropping restructuring, I said that if such a restructuring could eventually put a highly capable car company back on the normal track, it would be worth thousands of dollars.

In 2022, the company, which did not receive too many new energy dividends, was as young as a mystery. Throughout 2022, Chery never got tired of years, supply chains and other oft-quoted excuses, but firmly returned to the leading camp of its own brands.

So, is the difficulty of many enterprises really the reason why the new energy is not fast enough?

By the end of last year, most of the major independent brands had climbed out of the 2022 hole one after another. At the year-end show of Wu Xiaobo, who poured a lot of water at the end of last year, Wu Xiaobo asserted that the opportunity for future Chinese opportunism is over and that China in the future will always belong to the long-term.

So in 2022, when Chinese car companies accounted for half of the local market for the first time, how many Chinese car companies laid the foundation of real long-term doctrine?

We hope that Chery, BYD, Geely, Changan, the Great Wall, Weilai and Huawei can show us a century-old picture of Chinese cars after experiencing noise and commotion, loneliness and anxiety, and the fire of capital.

Long-term doctrine and joint venture model seem to be doomed, which is not determined by the brand, but by the system. Especially in the era of hand-to-hand combat, a group of middle and high-level cadres from two enterprise groups, spliced together, are not destined to be a business subject of efficient and long-term decision-making. Therefore, the shrinking share of joint ventures has been more reasonable than ever in recent years.

In the second half of last year, the Japanese system, which is relatively strong and relatively efficient in the joint venture, began to bear unprecedented market pressure. Especially in the fourth quarter, Liangda and Nissan began to show unconcealed fatigue after the listing of blockbuster new energy products was not as expected. The most powerful Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, although it has maintained the results of the first million-plus annual production and sales, the prices of several strong models have also begun to loosen at the terminal. The sales of Lexus, which was invincible in the past two years, were so sluggish that in the NIO Day at the end of the year, Li Bin directed the task of 2023 to surpassing Lexus.

The entanglement of the Japanese system on the new energy strategy is obvious. Take Toyota as an example, Toyota executives have never shown recognition of the current development speed of new energy vehicles. It is also difficult to wobble on the product side. At the end of the year before last, Toyota launched a blueprint for new energy consisting of more than 30 electric vehicles, but Akio Toyoda said again at the end of last year that Toyota would not force it to follow the pace of new energy. Toyota-style love who.

Originally, from the perspective of the global market, new energy vehicles are an attack on the East Asian automobile industry represented by Germany, Europe and Japan, represented by the United States and China. The ultimate goal of the construction of the new automobile evaluation method represented by new energy and intelligence is to change the current situation that the automobile takes industrial manufacturing as the only product attribute, so as to break the strong position of Germany and Japan in the automobile industry.

So far, the strategy of China and the United States in this wave of industrial restructuring has at least achieved preliminary results. A new product evaluation system which is obviously beneficial to the Sino-American automobile industry has been initially established. German products have even lost the pricing power they have long dominated in multiple market segments. Mercedes-Benz, for example, in the luxury electric car market, a big official downgrade at the end of last year is telling.

From the perspective of the automobile industry for a century, Toyota has never suffered a big loss because of its own pace, and the market space occupied by Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Porsche has never been really shaken. But whether the situation this time is the same as in the past, I am afraid no one can guarantee that Akio Toyoda's palms must also be sweaty.

After all, in all the manufacturing fields before the automobile, the impact of Chinese enterprises has greatly rewritten the world map of the industry. The best-case scenario is that Chinese enterprises occupy the terminal market on a large scale and give up the profits of basic materials and high-tech components. This time, the territory of German and Japanese cars faces simultaneous swallowing by China and the United States.

But I still believe that even in the face of danger, Volkswagen, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz and BMW still have a great chance to occupy the important territory of the automobile industry in the future. After all, in today's tolerant world, companies that are more likely to die and deserve to die than these excellent companies also occupy a huge number of markets that Volkswagen Toyota has room to move.

At the same time, it is true that the car has been redefined, but chassis, drive, precision manufacturing and adjustment still occupy an important position in the new definition, which is not changed because these latitudes are temporarily ignored in today's hustle and bustle of the industry.

Ten years ago, I attended a gathering of self-driving investors. In the eyes of many investors, self-driving is certainly divided into many segments with different real profits and valuation prospects, but for self-driving companies, the future is the most difficult, the most expensive and the core area of competition, not computing power, not smart sensors, but the field of line-controlled chassis that ensures the safety, stability and comfort of self-driving vehicles.

Isn't this still the technological heights of today's giants? I still don't think Volkswagen or Toyota will face elimination because of delays in smart cockpits or electrification, but if they fail to bring their solid advantages into a new era, it may be a blow to enterprises.

In fact, when traditional enterprises made electric cars in the past two years, they could not help but emphasize that the marketing tactics such as oil trucks, which have been criticized by many people, have begun to have obvious market persuasion in 2022. With the improvement of the penetration of new energy vehicles, the proportion of rational users began to grow rapidly.

Volkswagen ID. The series began to accelerate after more than a year of hard work. BMW, which is at the forefront of the BBA, has also begun to find the rhythm of smart electric cars after walking through numerous hilarious pits. Therefore, whether it is Mercedes-Benz, Audi or Toyota-Honda-Nissan, there is no need to be too eager in intelligent electrification, but we must not procrastinate. As Li Bin said earlier, cars are not a winner-takes-all industry, and they have never been. The more traditional enterprises are, the more patient they are to bring their advantages of decades and centuries into a new era. Being in a hurry is tantamount to wielding a knife from the palace, and it won't be cost-effective.

More calm than these enterprises are those car brands with niche characteristics that have entered the pit because they are not calm a few years ago. Needless to say, the pace of the main battlefield of intelligent electrification can not be kept up by these enterprises, even if the technology can keep up, it is difficult for them to bear the fierce competition for share. Then let the already lovely themselves become more lovely in the changing market, so that they can live a beautiful life into a new era, which is the survival law of these enterprises that do not need too much share but want profits.

For example, Jaguar Land Rover, which I personally like very much, but its domestic and global strategies are very infuriating in previous years. The company began to fight against neo-luxury around the world last year. This is not a very recognizable slogan. But the content is satisfactory.

In short, Land Rover is beginning to return to its favorite brand status defined by top pride plus personality SUV. For Land Rover, neo-luxury is actually a return to brand characteristics. Range Rover began to clean up the rivers and mountains lost a few years ago, and the success of the guard helped Land Rover repair the original brand wall. If we find that we can return to the route of the first four generations, I guarantee that no matter how smart electrification develops, the brand will not fall down easily. Maybe it can get better and better, even if it doesn't work, it can keep the effect of reducing quantity and increasing profit.

Hold your own stage and don't add drama to yourself on someone else's stage. Brands like Land Rover don't have to worry too much about the speed and opportunities of electrification. That's the life and death scene of big companies that have to go shopping. In fact, what a brand like Land Rover has to do is simple, just eight words, keep the love and earn the money.

Leave the opportunity of electrification to the refreshed Jaguar to reconstruct, so that Land Rover will become a lovely wall in the change of the times. By the same token, those who have developed miserably in recent years, such as Jeep, Alfa Romeo and so on, as long as they have the right way of thinking, they will be able to come back from the dead in the storm of industrial change and try their best to live for another 500 years.

All right, let's pull back the community of new forces in car-building. The overall development of the new forces in 2022 is in line with expectations. Before the end of the subsidy, it is the meaning of the topic that a group of stragglers want to stay or not, which can neither declare the failure of the new power nor demonstrate the success of the new power.

However, in the ununexpected fall, the early departure posture of several houses seems to be particularly worth talking about.

Niu Chuang has attracted a lot of attention because of the halo of his star founder Li Yinan. The market expectation of the new product that Niuchuang finally took off last year is also very high, and it is regarded as the one with the highest product attention among the purebred new forces that entered the game last year.

However, shortly after the pre-sale, Niuchuang announced that the delivery plan had run aground, and the project came to an abrupt halt when it should not have been stranded. There is a lot of speculation, but it is said that one of the main reasons is that Niu Chuang never got the new car license. Li Yinan, proud and rich and free, stopped playing in anger.

The posture of the end of Niuchuang is quite respectable, and there is basically no rotten end of the money that should be refunded in all aspects, not only the money of users and employees, but even the advertising expenses invested in the early stage, are also smoothly in the settlement.

If the rumors are true, then the suspension of Li Yinan's car-building journey is regrettable and sighing. Such a CEO with technical ability and vision is the strength that the industry needs in the era of automobile industry change. In contrast, it is not a pity for a hundred participants like Baoneng to leave the scene.

Shen Hui's Weima frequently reported unsustainable news in the second half of last year. In the initial list of new forces building cars, Weimar and Weilai, Xiaopeng and Baiteng were ranked as the four small kings that attracted the most attention in the industry. Now, with the departure of Ding Qingfen, the last defender, Baiteng is dead; Xiaopeng was in trouble last year because of the problems brought about by the company's initial design; and Weima, which was considered the most robust, seems to have reached an unsustainable stage.

The track of the four little heavenly kings is really sad. If Weimar can not come back from the dead, then his fall has a clear warning significance to the industry. From the perspective of entrepreneurial qualifications, the initial financial situation, and the ability to integrate resources, Weimar must be a new force with a good foundation, and it has obvious advantages compared with the zero running and Nezha.

But Weimar is almost all the new forces, the product ideal is the most ambiguous one, Robotaxi and the private car market hesitant, in the most ambiguous price belt positioning, the product obviously does not have the distinct declaration of other new forces.

On the face of it, Weimar's dilemma is that management missed the opportunity to raise money, but fundamentally, a vague understanding of auto products is the root of the decline of the new power of the former star. As a new power automobile company, it is not possible not to give a clear answer to your pursuit of building a car. the world does not need a new automobile company with only business model and no product pursuit. A decline similar to that of Wilma has been the most common way for new forces to be knocked out in recent years. It's just that Weimar is one of the most famous. If Shen Hui still has a chance, I hope he will pay enough attention to his product partner.

Compared with Niuchuang and Weimar, Evergrande's dismal car-building is much more reasonable. This time, real estate companies are full of opportunistic and desperate attempts to build cars, and even without such a precise encounter with the thunderstorm of Evergrande last year, the chances of success are slim. Experience over the past few years has proved that even though cars are becoming less difficult in manufacturing, lower access costs and less difficult to integrate suppliers, this manufacturing pearl is still proud and picky. The industry and the market still maintain the bottom line of business ethics and capital attributes for the operators who break into them. Jia Yueting in the United States and Xu Jiayin in China are supporting this point.

In 2022, he Xiaopeng seems to have replaced Li Bin in 2019 as the worst person in the auto industry. Xiaopeng suddenly fell into a continuous crisis of public opinion, not because of the problem with the rhythm of his products, nor because of any sudden change in the capital chain.

He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, a well-developed new power car company, with the purest Internet genes in the new power, seems to be about to prove the establishment of the Internet car-making era. But last year, Xiaopeng suddenly began to fall into a state of anxiety in the outside world because of the chaos of the company's initial setup and follow-up management.

According to insiders, Xiaopeng's sudden chaos began with the transfer of part of the distribution rights to investors when the initial introduction of investment. This careless initial setting eventually made the new car company, which should have been managed efficiently and flattened, encounter internal friction and inefficiency throughout the marketing system and even the company as a whole.

Xiaopeng's problems are still reminding carmakers outside the industry, especially non-manufacturing Internet practitioners, of the possible differences in the management logic of high-value manufacturing companies. For the enterprise, the injury caused by the management mode and the initial setting of the enterprise will not be a minor injury, but it is not fatal for excellent managers. I personally think that he Xiaopeng is a tough and capable entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen never give up easily and are usually very durable. It is only a matter of cost to tide over this difficulty. I hope this labor pains is a transformation of Xiaopeng into Dapeng.

At the end of last year, Li Bin also suffered a headache. When the user's data was hacked and blackmail failed, the thieves sold the data online with $2.25 million worth of bitcoin. Li Bin did not unexpectedly give a tough attitude to the end.

User data security is a hot topic at present, which varies greatly from judicial practice to users' own concern in Europe, America and China. In China, the illegal use and sale of data occurs in almost every enterprise that has the ability to collect user data. However, such wanton and abominable behavior of stealing data and selling it publicly is rare. This at least shows that the data of users in Weilai is actively protected by the enterprises. If Weilai also sells user data privately like some telecom enterprises or e-commerce websites, then there will be no such incident.

It is worth saying that Weilai must be one of the companies in the automotive industry that have done a good job in data collection, analysis and protection. I have seen with my own eyes how junior many automobile companies are in terms of their awareness and ability of data security. And these enterprises are following the trend, asking users and potential customers to retain capital through App, completing direct sales through App, and so on. The hacker's attack on Xilai data is a strong warning to automobile companies that you are ready to deal with the data risks brought about by users' direct connection in the era of digital marketing.

Although variables still exist in every new force that breaks into the automobile manufacturing industry in the new era, in their first decade, we are almost certain that the new force as a whole has become an immortal new force in the change of the industry, and we can believe that among the existing new forces of temporary security, there must be members who can reach the finals of this change in the industry.

Moreover, many practices, ideas and corporate governance methods of the new forces are worth studying and learning in the industry. Of course, I'm not talking about things that a lot of companies are happy to learn, but certainly useless. As a matter of fact, the things that many traditional enterprises are trying to imitate are, for many new forces, things that have been discarded after trial and error on the way to start.

So far, I have seen a few things worth learning from the new forces:

First, big data's ability to collect, analyze and apply. Outstanding new power enterprises are generally ahead of the industry in this respect, and this ability has brought obvious advantages to enterprises in terms of marketing, product definition and improvement, satisfaction of users' real needs, accurate scene product packaging, and so on. It also gives users real benefits at a reasonable cost.

Second, the propulsion ability of effective potential customers and the transformation efficiency of them. At the beginning, the target groups of new power enterprises are narrow, but whether it is Wei Xiaoli or Nezha and Zero, they have a strong ability to transform users in a high proportion of people with a small base.

Third, more distinct product ideals and corporate values. As we mentioned earlier, this is a line of life and death for the new forces. In fact, this excellent independent brand and even international big car companies have also done a very good job, and the outstanding new forces are particularly distinct.

Fourth, bold understanding and decisive investment in the industry of intelligent electrification. The most typical is Weilai. Weilai is the new force that most dares to build a new enterprise system in the process of industry change. It comes from Weilai to spare no effort to gamble on the power exchange mode and to try as much as possible for users' boutique retail. In particular, the former, for Weilai such enterprises need industry foresight and input courage requirements are very high. However, Weilai firmly and accurately chose the one that can make barriers and profits in the future electric vehicle energy replenishment link.

Finally, seek truth from facts and be open-minded. Although we have listened to the boasts of many new forces and swallowed many cakes painted by new forces in the past few years, in dealing with the survival and development of enterprises, the practical and realistic style of the new forces is much better than that of large-scale traditional car companies. Most of the new forces that can get out of the first wave of the market, the internal atmosphere is very pragmatic, what is good is good, and what is not good is not.

If a traditional enterprise feels that it wants to learn from new forces, but forces itself to improve its system and improve efficiency, personal advice, learn these five points well, and always remember to give full play to its own advantages, I think it will be enough.

In addition to the new forces that are still pouring in, capital has also become a very clear participant and interventionist in the industry in recent years.

Today, the concept of investors in the auto industry is completely different from what the industry used to talk about. We can clearly see that the logic of the influence of capital on industry has become more and more grand in the past five years.

For example, as mentioned earlier, the stay of capital in the field of batteries and raw materials is one of the main reasons for the imbalance of industrial profit distribution and the slow profitability of most new energy vehicle companies.

Even if the capital has not been fully sold on the vehicle side, the imbalance of power balance between new and old car-building forces brought about by capital and the ambition of all auto industry participants to explosive financing scale have also profoundly affected the development of the industry.

Who can face Tesla, who has only been seriously selling cars for three or five years and whose market capitalization almost exceeds that of the top 10 car companies in the world combined? Who can face the fact that the market capitalization has become the first among Chinese car companies within a few months of listing?

To open up financing channels and do a good job of market capitalization management is not a new job for all listed and pre-listed car companies, but it is definitely a new proposition. Traces of misshapen physical operations caused by successful or unsuccessful market capitalization management can be found everywhere in today's automobile industry.

Before intelligent electrification, automobile companies were blue chips with large volume, clear profits but not much imagination in listed companies, so listing is not the most important financing channel for automobile companies, or at least not the only important financing channel. many companies were reluctant to go public before.

However, this wave of capital's attention to the industry has obviously greatly enhanced the status of listed financing. Take a look at BYD, which has risen from nine yuan to more than 300 yuan. Whether public or private, it is an irresistible temptation and an opportunity that cannot be missed.

The most typical example is Geely. Geely, which had already decided to return to the A-share Kechuang board, happened to be stopped by the ant incident of the fellow-townsman in Hangzhou. This financing failure is one of the key reasons for Geely's tight development situation in recent years.

Geely has promoted at least three subsidiary listing projects in the past three years, but has not been able to find enough financing channels to make up for the losses caused by accidental stranding. 00175 the low financing capacity of Hong Kong stocks has obviously dragged down the development pace of Geely's opening and closing, opening and integration.

Geely's temporary independence of polar krypton is also an emergency adjustment after the established route An is blocked. The current development trend of polar krypton can not help but admire the resilience of Geely enterprises, and it is hoped that polar krypton will ring the bell in 2023.

Of course, the industry should make full use of capital, but its attitude towards capital also requires the necessary self-discipline and prudence. The interference of capital to the thinking of entity management and the interference to the decision-making of enterprise leaders should be paid attention to by the management of all kinds of new and old enterprises.

Capital has never been an undifferentiated currency, but a currency with will. Musk's painful game with Wall Street in the whole development process of Tesla runs through every difficult node of Tesla very clearly. The same is true in the process of capitalization of the entire automobile industry today. For example, for capital, it is of course more in their interests for the industry to move in the direction of winner-take-all. They don't care whether the true logic of the industry is winner-takes-all. In the cycle they set, to achieve capital growth expectations and then leave, the future of the industry will not be taken into consideration.

Remember what Wu Xiaobo said in the year-end show that China will forever enter the era of long-term activists from 2023. Capital is good, but giving up secularism is the way to die. Of course, if it is the original intention of some business operators to pursue the rapid surge of personal wealth at the expense of the long-term interests of enterprises, then there is nothing to talk about. This is, of course, a very understandable choice. Just remember to pay your taxes.

In the wave of capital, there are always enterprises who choose to drift with the current and develop a good posture with ease; there are always enterprises that choose the mainstay, we just want to choose a little more of the latter.

In 2022, whenever I met new friends and introduced myself in the automobile industry, people always envied me. It is said that only your industry is booming now. I will tell you that, in fact, it is lively, but it is not depressed, and there are not many links for the whole industrial chain to make money.

People will retort that in 2022, the boom will be booming. Do you know how many industries don't have many opportunities to start in 2022?

It is quite exhilarating to be said like this. In the midst of difficulties, there is still a chance to persist; in uncertainty, there is the expectation of becoming a Poseidon needle; this in itself is an honor for the industry. It's really lucky that you can't lie down and get up to work.

In April 2022, how many people in the automobile industry in Shanghai eat and live in factories to ensure that the production line does not stop during the three months when logistics, supply and delivery are not smooth. How many industry executives and engineers have never interrupted flights around the world because of the epidemic. How many people outside the industry are concerned about when the supply chain of the auto industry will be fully restored.

After 2022, Chinese cars, no matter whether they make money or not, have undoubtedly become an important pole in the global automobile industry under the painstaking efforts of the whole industry, and will become more and more important unstoppably. Although this important time has not come in the dazzling era of consumption, and although globalization is still full of gloom in 2023, all the key links in the industry have clearly seen the future of the industry. Understand what you have to do and your responsibilities.

When everyone is wandering in the dark night, it is a good time for the lonely and brave to set out.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly), author: Jiang Xiaohua

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