Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The original title: "it is too early to talk about hydrogen and love."

Hydrogen is the "first element in the universe", accounting for 90% of all atoms in the observable universe, and its abundance in the earth's crust is no more than 0.15%. Although it is not as abundant as titanium, it is much higher than lithium with an abundance of 0.0065%. Hydrogen appeared in the 379000th year after the Big Bang, while humans produced hydrogen as late as the 17th century [1].

Today, some people regard hydrogen as the future energy star. Over the past year and a half, the relevant policies of the hydrogen energy industry have been going up one after another, the amount of investment and the amount of investment have gone up, and the media reports are even more on-board. However, in sharp contrast, it is very difficult to get in touch with hydrogen energy-related terminal applications in real life. This is unavoidably confusing.

In this paper, we will bypass some clich é topics such as the excellent performance of hydrogen energy as an energy carrier, unparalleled commercial expectations, and the great significance to the cause of carbon neutralization, and start directly from the shortcomings of the industry. analyze the difficulties faced by hydrogen energy from the inside to the outside one by one, and talk about why hydrogen energy can not fly.

Recently, the heat of hydrogen energy is a little high: the primary market is investing, the secondary market is doing it, one policy document after another, and the media reports are even more on-board. It seems that this "cleanest energy carrier" will soon be widely used, subverting the entire energy industry.

Of course this is not the case. There is a serious dislocation between industrial development and the popularity of public opinion. at present, it is not easy to get in touch with the terminal application of hydrogen energy in daily life, which does not match the hustle and bustle on paper.

Is it immature technology or other external factors that have shackled the hydrogen industry and caused today's situation?

The omni-directional immature hydrogen energy industry can be divided into four links: hydrogen production, storage and transportation, filling and application.

As an energy carrier, hydrogen does not really have a large-scale basis from basic preparation to storage and transportation to terminal applications, and the technological maturity of the whole link is obviously insufficient. At the present stage, hydrogen is mainly used as an industrial raw material in industrial production, which is rarely used for energy supply, which is different from the so-called "hydrogen energy industry".

Source: 2022 hydrogen Energy Industry Research report [2] in the preparation process, there are three main ways to produce hydrogen: reforming of fossil energy to produce hydrogen, industrial by-production of hydrogen, and electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen.

Source: 2022 hydrogen Industry Research report [2] the biggest advantage of hydrogen production from fossil energy is its low cost. At this stage, 96% of the world's hydrogen is produced in this way. However, the use of fossil fuels to produce hydrogen is completely contrary to the basic concept of "carbon neutralization". Even if low-carbon production is achieved through superimposed carbon capture technology, it is nothing more than an accounting game on the carbon account, which will cause costs to soar and weaken its economic advantage. Therefore, this preparation method of hydrogen can only be used as industrial raw materials for metal smelting, semiconductor purification, chemical fertilizer and so on, but can not be used in the hydrogen energy industry.

Although the pollution of industrial by-product hydrogen is not high and the utilization rate of raw materials is improved, its cost is not controlled, and its production capacity is completely bound to the main products, which fundamentally can not support the whole industry.

In fact, there is only one route that best meets the goal of carbon neutralization and supply demand: the use of renewable energy to electrolyze water to produce hydrogen. But at present, no matter which subdivision technology route, this method has low maturity, high cost and lack of basic economy. This means that due to the fundamental lack of current production capacity, the upstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain is still unable to support the industry to achieve scale and industrialization.

The accumulation of hydrogen storage and transportation technology is also insufficient, and the technical difficulties are more serious than the production process.

Hydrogen is a very excellent energy carrier, but its physical properties are "bad", which makes it very difficult to store and transport. At room temperature, hydrogen has poor energy density, low critical temperature (- 253 ℃, above this temperature can not be liquefied), strong penetration to the container, easy leakage, easy diffusion, corrosive, extremely flammable and explosive (explosion limit range of 4.0%-75.6%), and poor safety. Up to now, hydrogen storage is still a worldwide problem, and there is a lack of effective solutions for medium-and long-term storage and efficient transportation of hydrogen.

Hydrogen storage can be divided into two modes: pure hydrogen storage and carrier storage [3].

In the pure hydrogen storage mode, the most common one is high pressure gaseous hydrogen storage. The technical route is mature and the cost is relatively low, but the reserves are small, the safety is not strong, it is difficult to scale and can not support large-scale medium-and long-term storage; although the liquid hydrogen technology route has significant advantages in safe hydrogen storage density, it has high energy consumption and high cost. although the technology also has a certain degree of maturity, it is not economical for the civilian field.

Carrier storage is the use of hydrogen storage medium to react with hydrogen under certain conditions to form stable compounds, and then release hydrogen by changing the conditions. There are many branch technical routes and great differences of this model, and what they have in common is that the technological maturity is not high, and they are all in the early stage.

Among them, methanol hydrogen storage and ammonia hydrogen storage are of great concern. These two routes can not only achieve efficient storage and transportation of hydrogen, but also because methanol and ammonia are a kind of energy carrier, which can be used directly, the difficulty of storage and transportation is far less than hydrogen, and the pollution as energy is also very low, which accords with the concept of carbon neutralization. For details, please refer to the article "ammonia energy in the face of the wind stinks ten miles against the wind. Will you like it?"

Due to the immaturity of hydrogen storage technology, there are few ways of hydrogen transport in practical application, including long tube trailer, tanker transportation and pipeline transportation.

Domestic gaseous hydrogen is mainly transported by long-tube trailers with low cost and does not rely on infrastructure, but it has low capacity and does not have long-distance transport capacity. Pipeline transportation is considered to be one of the most important components of the future hydrogen storage and transportation system, which has the characteristics of large transport capacity and long transportation distance, and is suitable for gaseous hydrogen, liquid hydrogen or liquid hydrogen storage media (such as ammonia, methanol). This model is highly dependent on infrastructure, the initial investment is huge, and there are some technical problems that have not yet been resolved.

The filling link mainly refers to the hydrogen filling station. Hydrogenation stations are divided into external hydrogenation stations and internal hydrogenation stations. The existing hydrogenation stations in China are all external hydrogenation stations, that is, hydrogen is compressed, stored and filled in the station after hydrogen storage and transportation to the hydrogenation station. The main problem in the filling process is that the cost is too high. Take the hydrogen filling station with daily hydrogen supply capacity at 500kg level as an example, the average investment scale is about 15 million, which is three times that of the traditional gas station, and the follow-up operation cost is very high [4] [5].

Under the background of limited fuel cell capacity, the current utilization rate of hydrogen filling stations is also limited, the economic value is not high, and the ability to attract investment is limited. Under the condition that the overall development level of the industrial chain is not high, it is not of great significance to vigorously promote the construction of the injection link.

In the application side, hydrogen energy mainly takes the form of fuel cell as the terminal application.

It should be emphasized that hydrogen energy storage also has applications for fuel cells, and the physical structure and basic composition are not much different from those of vehicle products, but their operating conditions are very different, and the demand for performance is not the same. the production experience of vehicle battery can not be simply misappropriated to the field of energy storage battery.

In addition, due to the short start time of China's hydrogen energy industry, there is a certain gap with the advanced level of foreign countries, and it is still one step behind when the technology maturity of the industry is insufficient. At present, many key links in the industry are still highly dependent on imports, such as proton exchange membranes, fixed oxides and carbon fiber in hydrogen storage cylinders, the localization rate is still low, and only a small number of domestic companies are involved, and the competitiveness of products is often not high. This has undoubtedly become one of the factors restricting the development of domestic hydrogen energy industry.

In a word, at present, it is not the lag of a certain link that restricts the take-off of the hydrogen energy industry, but the industrialization degree of the whole link from top to bottom is not high, each link has different technical defects that have not been solved, and the overall accumulation is inadequate. there are many obstacles to commercialization and scale, and it obviously takes time for further development.

The dilemma beyond technology is not just technological immaturity that affects the large-scale commercialization of the hydrogen industry.

In the long history of mankind, no technology has been put into use when it has reached perfection. More often, they are almost ready-as hot as lithium batteries, there are still a series of problems, such as long charging time, unstable performance at low temperature, risk of spontaneous combustion, etc., but this does not affect its extremely strong development momentum; and the internal combustion engine, which has accompanied the entire process of human industrialization, can even be said to be "wasteful" (the average is far less than 50%).

Of course, the current technology of hydrogen energy is not mature enough, but blaming all the difficulties of hydrogen energy on this immaturity undoubtedly oversimplifies the complexity of industrial development and ignores many equally critical external factors.

Competitive environment: unfair games are first of all competitive environment. The most embarrassing thing about hydrogen energy at the moment is that the battery technology route as a rival is somewhat too powerful.

The most ideal way to commercialize hydrogen energy is to enter the passenger car market with high demand, quick results and clear prospects as soon as possible as fuel cells-which is exactly what the vast majority of participants in the industry are doing. But the problem is that lithium new energy vehicles currently have a clear lead in terms of technology maturity, supply chain location, and consumer awareness.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, from January to March 2022, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 129.3 million and 1.257 million respectively, with a market share approaching 20% [6]. In the same period, the industry-wide sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are only 738 vehicles, and this already includes commercial vehicle data, and the global data add up to only 3939 vehicles, which is still very few [7].

In the commercial vehicle routes where hydrogen fuel cells are highly expected, such as heavy trucks, buses, etc., how does hydrogen fuel vehicles perform? It's also very ordinary.

Statistics show that a total of 7737 new energy heavy trucks were sold from January to May in 2022, of which only 148 fuel cell models were sold, accounting for only 1.91%. On the contrary, the replacement heavy truck accounted for nearly half of the sales of 3606 vehicles [8]. In the same period, the sales of hydrogen energy buses are only 305, which is less than that of 10377 pure electric buses, and the proportion is even lower than that of heavy trucks [9]. It can be said that in their own theoretically strong field, hydrogen energy has not performed very well.

This is not a close contest at all. Hydrogen fuel cell in the automotive industry, has never been similar to the pure electricity technology route of competitiveness, the so-called hydrogen-lithium struggle is just a gimmick.

Obviously, no matter what factors the current hydrogen-fueled vehicles are limited by, their competitiveness is not strong, at least at this stage, and in the short term of two or three years, they can not form an effective boost to the development of the industry. As for hydrogen freighters and hydrogen aircraft, which are relatively vague and ethereal prospects, they cannot be used to support the long-term development logic of the industry.

Pure electric line already has a very mature enterprise, with complete upstream and downstream, mass-produced models are rich enough to cover different types of consumers, which is far from the hydrogen fuel cell. The current situation is that even if hydrogen fuel cells achieve phased results in 2025 and make breakthroughs in key technologies, with reference to the development process of lithium batteries-- starting in the 13th five-year Plan and maturing in the 14th five-year Plan-- this may mean that it will take at least five years, that is, at the end of the 15th five-year Plan stage, hydrogen fuel cells can reach the current development stage of the pure electricity route.

What's more, whether there is enough room for the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles in the market, how to persuade consumers to buy hydrogen-powered vehicles instead of new-generation electric vehicles, and how to knock out production capacity in the supply chain deeply integrated with pure electric routes are all challenges.

After all, the replacement of pure trams to fuel vehicles is driven by the goal of "carbon neutralization", and there is a strategic demand to surpass the strong traditional fuel vehicle industry abroad, which is not purely a market competition between two fuel models, and the external factors are very complex. However, the competition between hydrogen fuel cell and pure electricity does not have such an environment, and the replacement of the latter is not "rigid demand". The competition between the two is only a direct confrontation between performance and cost performance, while hydrogen cars obviously have no advantage.

So in the "commercial atmosphere" is not so strong, belong to the field of infrastructure energy storage, hydrogen energy at this stage what is the outstanding performance? Still no.

According to the statistics of GGII survey, the installed capacity of hydrogen energy in China is about 1.5MW in 2021-this data is almost negligible compared with the total [10]. It is important to know that in 2021, hydrogen energy storage belongs to the installed power of electrochemical energy storage 1844.6MW, of which 99.3% are lithium batteries, and even lead-acid batteries that are on the verge of phase-out have the installed capacity of 2.2MW. The gap can be seen at a glance [11].

Although there is no direct competition between hydrogen storage and battery energy storage compared with vehicle batteries, and the differences in technical characteristics determine that the two are applicable to different scenarios, the paper data can only drive long-term expectations. unable to form any substantial feedback to the industry in the short term. Under the background of the rapid rise of green energy such as scenery, the demand for energy storage in the power system is expanding rapidly, and it is not difficult to judge who has the ability to undertake the demand and benefit from it.

Policy environment: support, but not without conditions. Of course, the policy environment also has a key impact on industrial development. Thankfully, although there are still many difficulties, the importance of the hydrogen industry has changed dramatically compared with that before 2020.

In 2021 alone, more than 30 hydrogen energy-related policies were issued at the national level, and hundreds of policies were involved by local governments at all levels [18]. In particular, in the outline of the 14th five-year Plan and the long-term goal of 2035, hydrogen, brain-like intelligence and quantum information are juxtaposed as the fields of cutting-edge science and technology and industrial change, pointing out that "… organize and implement future industrial incubation and acceleration plans, and plan and layout a number of future industries" [12].

With the issuance of the "14th five-year Plan" documents one by one, the hydrogen energy policy has the potential of cooking oil on fire. Every policy document is a dose of adrenaline for the industry in the implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage in the 14th five-year Plan, the Modern Energy system Plan in the 14th five-year Plan, and the Scientific and technological Innovation Plan in the Energy Field during the 14th five-year Plan.

Source of information: implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage in the 14th five-year Plan [13], Modern Energy system Plan in the 14th five-year Plan [14], Scientific and technological Innovation Plan in the Field of Energy in the 14th five-year Plan [15] Renewable Energy Development Plan jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other nine departments in June, hydrogen energy is listed separately. This paper puts forward the goal of carrying out the demonstration of hydrogen production from renewable energy on a large scale and promoting the substitution of green hydrogen in key areas such as chemical industry, coal mine, transportation and so on.

The most important issue in the 14th five-year Plan for Renewable Energy Development is the medium-and long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration. This document makes it clear that hydrogen is an integral part of the future national energy system, puts forward the basic principles for the development of the hydrogen industry and the development goals for the next 15 years, and deploys important measures to promote the high-quality development of the hydrogen industry [17].

It can be said that the current hydrogen energy industry has entered a policy cycle that has never existed before.

However, both practitioners and investors should not be blindly optimistic. Policy concern does not necessarily mean commercial commitment, the expectations at the national level are not always consistent with the demands of enterprises, and subsidies to support industrial development are not arbitrary fat.

In fact, if we read these policy documents carefully, we will find that the expression for the hydrogen industry is still based on "breakthrough", "system", "innovation", "overcoming", "exploration" and "pilot demonstration". It is not small different from the mature renewable energy industry such as wind power and photovoltaic.

At present, the policy side is still more concerned about speeding up technology research and development, forming competitive technology reserves, breaking the risk of "getting stuck in the neck" and drawing in the gap with foreign frontiers. The expression of commercialization is to explore the model and find the path, and does not mean to accelerate the landing of the industry. Considering the current stage of industrial development, it is also very normal.

The current top-level design obviously pays more attention to the energy properties of hydrogen, and the industry is expected to focus on hydrogen production, storage and transportation, but the corresponding rate of return can not be expected too much. However, the market still tends to add a clearer path of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and supporting industry chain, even the economy of hydrogen-fueled vehicles is not clear. This kind of attention mismatch, as well as the emotional overheating represented behind it, are worthy of vigilance.

On the other hand, even if only considering the vehicle power battery as an application scenario, there is a big difference between hydrogen fuel cell and lithium battery. The current hydrogen-powered vehicle propulsion is based on five demonstration urban agglomerations, and during the demonstration period, subsidies are issued in the form of "awards instead of subsidies", which are also very different from lithium batteries.

First of all, the focus of the subsidy has shifted from the downstream mainframe factory to the upstream core components and key materials enterprises, and the direct target of the subsidy is not the automobile enterprises but the urban agglomeration itself. In addition to the mainframe factory, it also covers the relevant suppliers of parts and materials in the industrial chain [18]. This means that the development of the whole industry is highly standardized and highly controlled, and it is also difficult for car companies to repeat the route of frantic expansion of production in the electric car industry before 2017 in order to get subsidies. Of course, this model can also avoid the waste of resources to some extent and curb the once rampant fraudulent compensation behavior.

On the other hand, at this stage, the subsidy policy pays very little attention to passenger cars. Take the Beijing subsidy standard as an example, the declaration project includes commercial vehicles and does not reward passenger vehicles; the declaration is based on the "demonstration application consortium" and led by fuel cell vehicle manufacturers, which is composed of fuel cell system enterprises, vehicle operators and hydrogen station operators, which is different from pure electric vehicles directly supplying vehicle enterprises and benefiting consumers. There are also some details that need to be paid more attention, such as the subsidy for fuel cell vehicles needs to run enough mileage, otherwise the subsidy will be recovered, and the scope of effect is limited to model urban agglomerations rather than national development, and so on [19].

There is also a key question: is the subsidy for hydrogen-powered vehicles high? Just so-so.

Under the current policy, by the end of the demonstration period at the end of 2025, the subsidy limit for a single fuel cell vehicle demonstration urban agglomeration is 1.7 billion yuan, with a maximum additional reward of 10%, totaling 1.87 billion yuan, and the total of the five urban agglomerations is less than 10 billion [20]. For comparison, subsidies for new energy vehicles (mainly electric / hybrid models) reached 21.272 billion yuan in 2016 alone, and the cumulative subsidy reached 147.8 billion yuan in the 12 years from 2009 to 2020. By comparison, the subsidies for hydrogen-fueled vehicles are dwarfed.

Even under such subsidies, the pure electric new energy vehicle industry has still experienced a very cruel reshuffle, and a large number of low-level enterprises have been cleared after the subsidy slopes, which has formed the prosperity situation we see today.

In addition, although some participants in the industry may be ambitious, from the policy-side phased development goals, the national level holds a more conservative attitude towards the development prospects of the hydrogen industry.

According to the development goal set out in the medium-and long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035), the number of hydrogen fuel vehicles in 2025 is about 50,000, accounting for an increase of about 10000 vehicles per year since 2022-only slightly more than the sales of new energy vehicles in 2011. relatively optimistic expectations add up to 100000 planned holdings in each province, which is only the sales level of new energy vehicles in 2013 [22].

How many enterprises can such a market support? It is difficult to support a family, and it is impossible to cultivate an enterprise like the next BYD and Ningde era.

In the face of insufficient accumulation of technology and low maturity of the industry, it may not be rational to expect a few documents and some subsidies to repeat the prosperity of pure electric cars in recent years.

Investment environment: the threshold is high and low, and some parts are still overheated due to changes in the policy environment, and the investment environment of the hydrogen industry has also slipped to a certain extent, mainly because more attention has been paid to the research and development of upstream hydrogen production links and key equipment.

The investment in hydrogen production is the most rapid, which accounts for the highest proportion of the industrial chain in terms of quantity and investment scale, accounting for 29% of the total investment projects. However, investment projects in hydrogen production are mostly carried out in the form of linkage with new energy projects such as wind and water power generation, or other industrial projects such as chemical industry. the main investors are mainly Sinopec, State Power Investment, China Energy Construction and other large central enterprises, as well as Longji shares, sunshine power and other industrial giants. Obviously, this link is consistent with the investment of 15% of the application demonstration projects, which has the characteristics of traditional energy, chemical industry with heavy assets, high investment and long period, high threshold and not very friendly to social capital.

Photo Source: China hydrogen Energy Industry Development report 2022 [18] although the amount of individual investment in the hydrogen fuel cell link is not as high as that in the hydrogen production link-which is normal considering the characteristics of the industry-the industry is hot and the quantity is dense. and the stack of related special equipment projects and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle projects, the actual investment is even higher. It's just that compared with large-scale projects, investors in this part are less rational.

The current fuel cell market is full of FOMO (Fear of missing out) sentiment: lithium batteries and new energy vehicles were missed, and hydrogen energy should not be missed again.

Among investors, there is a not uncommon belief that the fuel cell industry will give birth to the next Ningde, and hydrogen-powered cars will give birth to the next batch of "electric three fools", BYD and Tesla. But it's like believing that China's catering industry can get out of the next McDonald's and the new consumer sector can grow into the next Mars. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's not convincing.

The combination of this concept and the influx of hot money leads to a certain deviation in the development of the industry. Some industry experts have said that more than 70% of the enterprises in the current hydrogen energy industry chain are laying out fuel cell stacks / systems and spare parts, and the engine production capacity far exceeds that of vehicle production and marketing, and the supply and demand is quite abnormal [23].

What's more, in the case that the upper and middle reaches have not been properly developed, it is unreasonable for riveting to work hard against the terminal products. The investment in hydrogen fuel cells seems to refer too much to the development model of lithium electricity, but ignores some crucial differences between the two, such as pure electricity routes do not require complex infrastructure, and large-scale applications are far less complex than hydrogen energy routes. it's just a charging pile.

Of course, we can also say that the threshold of other industrial chains is too high, and the huge demand for funds also results in limited options for enterprises and investment institutions that want to enter hydrogen energy, and it is easier to enter only in the direction of fuel cells.

What the capital market expects is to reproduce the rapid development period of lithium battery as soon as possible, to build a leading listed company, and then to obtain considerable economic returns. However, given the level of technology accumulation and industrialization of the hydrogen industry at this stage, this expectation is still too heavy. It can be said bluntly that the cake of this size simply cannot support enterprises that are springing up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. There must be few survivors in the end.

Generally speaking, the investment environment of hydrogen energy industry is very similar to that of traditional energy and chemical industry. The threshold of large-scale projects is high, participation is difficult, mainly by the government to take the lead in planning, large enterprises to participate in investment, social capital opportunities are limited. The way of entry of listed companies is to invest in specific technology development, but also participate in project construction, but on the whole, it is only a supplement to the main business, the income-generating capacity of related business is not strong, can not form an effective support for the company's performance. The primary market focuses on specific technologies. In addition to fuel cells, it is mainly the research and development of key components and materials such as proton membranes and electrolytic cells. They are not interested in long-term projects and have not run out of leading start-up companies for the time being.

If it takes time, hydrogen energy will certainly. This paper has no intention to deny the importance of hydrogen energy, but also agrees with the importance of this energy carrier to China's energy strategy. But we still need to understand that hydrogen energy is still a very young industry, immature in all aspects, and excessive fanatical touting has no practical significance to the development of the industry.

As far as the industry is concerned, continuing to tackle key technological problems is more important than anything else, and only a solid technological reserve is the foundation to support the long-term and healthy development of the industry.

For investors, the hot investment in hydrogen energy needs to be viewed more rationally. Rush into the fuel cell is obviously not a wise move, other links may not be without opportunities, everyone wants to throw out the Ningde era, but this is not the only good company. Maybe a little more long-term?

For startups, the question is much simpler and more straightforward: everyone knows that the industry has good expectations for the future, but how do you live long enough to share the cake?

It can only be said that the current industry still needs time to grow, and this will not be a short process. For participants, hydrogen energy is a promising industry in the future, but unfortunately, it is only possible in the future.

References:

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[22] in-depth industry observation: changes in total sales of new energy vehicles in China from 2011 to 2021 (10,000 vehicles). Understand the car emperor 2022.02.26 https://www.dongchedi.com/ video / 7068839505461314061

Han Yifei: hydrogen fuel cell: capital is hot, market is cold. China Energy News 2021.05.14 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y61act3sfR1eDR2ALCIKk

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: fruit Shell hard Technology (ID:guokr233), author: Chen Julei, Editor: Li Tuo

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